屋漏偏逢连夜雨，船迟又遇打头风。

你问，能那么点儿背吗？

当“通货膨胀”和“经济停滞”一起出现，现实的凉水真能“塞牙缝儿”。

如果你比较关注国际财经新闻, 可能已经看见了这一则报道, 那就是前美联储主席伯南克公开发声表示美联储对抗通胀的动作太慢, 美国可能会面临新的Stagflation .

所以，到底什么是Stagflation？今天的Buzzword就让我们来聊聊“双难其下”的 Stagflation.

The word Stagflation is a combination of stagnation and inflation.

Stagflation 是由“经济停滞”和“通货膨胀”两个词拼接而成的, 中文里会把它翻译成“停滞性通货膨胀”, 简称“滞胀”.

Stagflation

Stagflation is characterized by slow economic growth and relatively high unemployment—or economic stagnation—which is at the same time accompanied by rising prices (i.e., inflation).

Stagflation 的特点就是一边是经济增长缓慢, 失业率居高不下, 造成经济停滞; 而另外一边又是物价疯涨出现通货膨胀.

通俗的说就是指物价上升，但经济停滞不前。

你可以这么理解，资本主义国家经济的一般表现是物价上涨时期属于经济繁荣、失业率较低或下降；而经济衰退或萧条时期的特点则是物价下跌。

西方经济学家因此认为，失业和通货膨胀一般不会同时出现。

Stagflation can be alternatively defined as a period of inflation combined with a decline in the GDP.

It presents a dilemma for economic policy, since actions intended to lower inflation may exacerbate unemployment.

对于经济政策制定者来说, 这种滞胀期最大的问题就是通常能够采取的控制通胀的手段, 往会进一步加重失业的问题.

01

Word Origins

Stagflation 这个概念最早是由英国的一位政客Iain Macleod提出来的.

在上世纪60年代英国经济比较低迷的时期, 他在对英国下议院的演讲里就提到了当时情况的严重.

The term Stagflation was first used in the 1960s during a time of economic stress in the UK by politician Iain Macleod while he was warning the House of Commons of the seriousness of the situation,

He said, "We now have the worst of both worlds—not just inflation on the one side or stagnation on the other, but both of them together. We have a sort of 'Stagflation ' situation. "

他所说的滞胀期其实就是一种“通货膨胀”和“经济停滞”共存的糟糕状态.

而这个词也在70年代石油危机的时候被美国所使用, 当时美国经历了连续5个季度的GDP负增长.

在1973年，通胀直接翻了一番, 到1974年通胀率已经到了两位数, 而失业率也在1975年达到了9%.

Stagflation was later used again to describe their recessionary period in the 1970s following the oil crisis when the U.S. underwent a recession that saw five quarters of negative GDP growth.

And during that period, inflation doubled in 1973 and hit double digits in 1974; while unemployment hit 9% by May 1975.

02

Inflation vs. Stagflation

“滞胀期”比较特别, 主要是因为在这个概念之前, 不管是对于学术界还是对于政策制定者来说, 这种情况应该不可能存在。

但上文说到，自20世纪60年代末、70年代初以来，西方各主要资本主义国家出现了经济停滞或衰退、大量失业和严重通货膨胀以及物价持续上涨同时发生的情况。

凯恩斯主义是这么理解的：

他们把【需求】看作经济生活中的首要因素，正是面向需求的政策，使政府设法改变各阶层收入悬殊的状况，以提高低收入者的需求水平。

比如扩大社会福利、向高收入者大量征税等。

这些政策的实行，一方面打击了人们的储蓄、投资和工作的积极性；另一方面降低了失业成本，不工作也没差嘛，反正福利好，于是乎很多人宁愿失业。

这正是导致经济衰退和通货膨胀并存的原因。

The reason why the concept of Stagflation is so particular is because Stagflation was long believed to be impossible because the economic theories that dominated both academic and policy circles ruled it out of their models by construction.

In particular, the economic theory of the Phillips Curve, which developed in the context of Keynesian economics.

This curve portrayed macroeconomic policy as a trade-off between unemployment and inflation.

这个曲线通常就认为宏观经济政策一般是在unemployment失业率和inflation通胀率中间做一个折中和取舍。

In short, economists believed that policies designed to lower inflation tend to drive up unemployment, and policies designed to ease unemployment raise inflation.

简单来说就是经济学家一般认为, 为了降低通胀率制定的政策可能会导致失业率上涨; 而同样地, 那些想要降低失业率的政策则会推高通胀率.

But then, there came Stagflation where both unemployment rate and inflation rate are up.

You can probably imagine what kind of impact Stagflation will have on the general public.

在滞胀期, 老百姓的日子肯定不好过。

因此还有一个相关的概念叫做 the Misery Index, 中文把它翻译成“悲惨指数”或者“痛苦指数”，其实就是失业率和通胀率相加。

You can probably imagine what kind of impact Stagflation will have on the general public.

And there is a related term called the Misery Index.

This index is calculated by adding inflation rate and unemployment rate, just a simple tool to show just how badly people feel when Stagflation hit the economy.

03

What Causes Stagflation?

关于导致滞胀的原因, 有很多不同的观点。

不过经济学家认为的两个主要原因, 第一个原因是供给冲击, 比如说油价的飙高;

还有一种就是政府制定的政策一方面抑制了经济增长,一方面又过快地增加了货币供给.

There are many discussions surrounding Stagflation, but there are two main explanations offered by economists for why Stagflation happens.

The first one is it happens when the economy faces a supply shock, such as a rapid increase in the oil price.

The second cause might be the government creates policies that harm industry while growing the money supply too quickly.

There is no definitive cure for Stagflation.

So for many, the key to prevent Stagflation is to be extremely provocative in avoiding it.

例句示范

Example 1：

-Ben Bernanke, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve, says US economy is heading toward stagflation for the first time since the 1970s.