评论
打印
Oh the humanity! Ah... humanity. It's a trainwreck, but I can't look away.
哦，人类！啊...人类。这是一次沉船事件，但是我并不想将我的目光移开。
It's 1843, and a debate is raging among physicians about one of the most common killers of women: childbed fever.
现在是1843年，一场关于女性最常见的杀手之一的争论在医生们中间激烈展开：产褥热。
Childbed fever strikes within days of giving birth, killing more than 70% of those infected -- and nobody knows what causes it. Obstetrician Charles Meigs has a theory.
产褥热在分娩后几天内就会发作，造成70%的感染者死亡，并且没人知道这是什么原因引起的。
Having observed abdominal inflammation in patients who go on to develop the fever, he claims this inflammation is the cause of childbed fever.
产科医生查尔斯·梅格斯提出了一个理论，在观察到腹部发炎的病人们开始发烧之后，他声称这种腹部炎症是引起产褥热的原因。
Much of the medical establishment supports his theory.
大部分医疗机构都支持他的理论。
Oh, come on! They really leave me no choice but to teach them some skepticism. That's better.
哦，得了吧！这让我别无选择，只能教他们怎么用怀疑的态度看待问题。这样就好多了。
Now, Meigs, your argument is based on a fallacy -- the false cause fallacy.
梅格斯，你的论点是建立在谬论的基础上的，即因果谬误。
Correlation does not imply causation: When two phenomena regularly occur together, one does not necessarily cause the other.
相关性的存在并不意味着因果关系的存在：当两种现象经常同时发生时，并不能说明一种现象的发生导致了另一种现象的出现。
So you say women who have inflammation also come down with childbed fever, therefore the inflammation caused the fever.
所以你认为因为腹部发炎的妇女都患有产褥热，所以产褥热一定是由于炎症引起的。
But that's not necessarily true. Yes, yes, the inflammation comes first, then the fever, so it seems like the inflammation causes the fever.
但是这并不一定是真的。是的是的，病人首先出现炎症，然后是开始发热，所以这看起来好像是炎症引起了产褥热。
But by that logic, since babies usually grow hair before teeth, hair growth must cause tooth growth.
但是，根据这种逻辑，由于婴儿通常先长牙齿，后长头发，那么头发的生长必然导致了牙齿的生长。
And we all know that's not true, right? Actually, don't answer that.
我们都知道那不是真的，对吧？还是不要回答好了。
A couple of different things could be going on here. First, it's possible that fever and inflammation are correlated purely by coincidence.
这里可能会有好多种不同的情况。首先，产褥热和炎症的关联可能纯属巧合。
Or, there could be a causal relationship that's the opposite of what you think -- the fever causes the inflammation, rather than the inflammation causing the fever.
或者，它们之间的确存在因果关系，但是这种因果关系与你的设想恰好相反--即产褥热导致炎症，而不是炎症导致产褥热。
Or both could share a common underlying cause you haven't thought of.
再或者，两者都是由同一个你还没有想到的潜在诱因引起。
If I may, just what do you think causes inflammation? Nothing? It just is? Really?
我冒昧问一句，你认为是什么导致了炎症的产生呢？想不出来原因吗？就这么凭空产生了？是吗？
Humor me for a moment in discussing one of your colleague's ideas -- Dr. Oliver Wendell Holmes.
话说你的同事奥利弗·温德尔·霍尔姆斯医生所提出了一个理论。
I know, I know, you don't like his theory -- you already wrote a scathing letter about it. But let's fill your students in, shall we?
我知道，我知道，你不喜欢他的理论；你已经为此给他写了一封尖刻的批评信。但我们还是满足一下学生们的好奇心吧，好吗？
Holmes noticed a pattern: when a patient dies of childbed fever, a doctor performs an autopsy.
霍尔姆斯注意到了一种模式：当一个病人因产褥热而死去时，医生会对其进行尸检。
If the doctor then treats a new patient, that patient often comes down with the fever.
如果那个医生在完成尸检后再去治疗一位新的病人，那么那个病人通常也会染上产褥热。
Based on this correlation between autopsies of fever victims and new fever patients, he proposes a possible cause.
基于检验产褥热患者尸体和新患病的病人之间的关联，他提出了一个可能的诱因。
Since there's no evidence that the autopsy causes the fever beyond this correlation, he doesn't jump to the conclusion that autopsy causes fever.
因为并没有证据可以证明尸检导致产褥热这一我们所观察到的关联性，所以他并没有立即下结论认定是尸检导致了产褥热。
Instead, he suggests that doctors are infecting their patients via an invisible contaminant on their hands and surgical instruments.
相反，他认为医生是通过他们的双手和手术器械上的一种看不见的污染物感染病人的。
This idea outrages most doctors, who see themselves as infallible.
这种想法激怒了大多数医生，他们都认为自己是绝对不可能出错的。
Like Meigs here, who refuses to consider the possibility that he's playing a role in his patients' plight.
就像梅格斯一样，他拒绝相信自己的行为有可能促使病人陷入困境。
His flawed argument doesn't leave any path forward for further investigation -- but Holmes' does.
他带有缺陷的理论并没有为下一步研究留下任何空间--但霍尔姆斯的主张却恰恰相反。
It's 1847, and physician Ignaz Semmelweis has reduced the number of childbed fever deaths in a clinic from 12% to 1%
1847年，内科医生伊格纳斯·塞梅尔韦斯将产褥热在一个门诊的死亡率从12%降到了1%，
by requiring all medical personnel to disinfect their hands after autopsies and between patient examinations.
他的做法是要求所有的医务人员在尸检后，以及对不同病人进行检查之间对自己的双手进行彻底消毒。
With this initiative, he has proven the contagious nature of childbed fever.
通过这一举措，他证明了产褥热是具有传染性的。
Ha! It's 1879, and Louis Pasteur has identified the contaminant responsible for many cases of childbed fever: Hemolytic streptococcus bacteria.
哈！现在是1879年，路易斯·巴斯德发现了造成众多产褥热案例的传染源：溶血性链球菌。
Hmm, my fries are cold. Must be because my ice cream melted.
唔，我的薯条凉了。那一定是因为我的冰激凌化了。
