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018期|消费者价格: 全民公敌(下)

来源:经济学人 编辑:sungang   可可英语APP下载 |  可可官方微信:ikekenet
  


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The simplest component of our ranking is the rate of core inflation. This measure gives a better sense of underlying price pressure. Among our ten countries, America leads the pack (though core inflation is above average pretty much everywhere).

在我们的排名中,最简单的分项是核心通胀率,这一指标可以更好地反映潜在的价格压力。在这十个国家中,美国(的通胀水平)处于领先地位(虽然几乎所有国家的核心通胀率都高于平均水平)。

A second measure, of dispersion, helps capture how broadly based price pressures are. Headline inflation being driven by one or two items—say, the cost of a restaurant meal—is less worrisome than if the price of everything is going up quickly.

第二个衡量指标“离散程度”有助于了解价格压力的广泛性。由一两种商品(比如一家餐馆的餐费)所驱动的整体通胀远不如所有商品价格都快速上涨让人担忧。

We divide a country's consumer-goods basket into as many as 16 components, then calculate the share where the inflation rate exceeds 2%. In Japan just a quarter cross that threshold. But in Australia more than two-thirds do.

我们把一个国家的消费品篮子细分成了16种类别,然后计算通胀率超过2%的类别比例。在日本,只有四分之一的类别超过了2%。但在澳大利亚,超过三分之二的类别都超过了2%。

JPMorgan Chase, a bank, breaks down Britain’s consumer-price index into 85 components, and finds that inflation rates for 69% of them are running above their 1997-2019 averages.

摩根大通银行将英国消费者价格指数分为85个分项,发现其中69%的通胀率高于1997-2019年的平均水平。

Inflation could also spiral if workers demand higher wages to compensate them for rising prices (and firms raise their prices in turn).

如果工人要求提高工资来抵消上涨的物价(公司也转而提高他们的产品价格),那么通货膨胀就可能会持续加剧。

Unit labour costs, which measure the relationship between what workers are paid and the value of what they produce, are rising far faster than their long-run average in many countries.

单位劳动力成本衡量的是工人的工资与其生产的产品价值之间的关系,在许多国家,单位劳动力成本的增长速度远远高于长期平均水平。

On May 5th America's statisticians revealed that these rose by 7% in the first quarter, compared with a year ago, up from a pre-pandemic average of around 2%.

5月5日,美国统计学家透露,与前一年相比,今年第一季度的单位劳动力成本增长了7%,比疫情之前的平均水平高出了大约2%。

Michael Saunders of the Bank of England has noted that with pay deals being struck at up to 5% a year, but productivity growth of only around 1%, Britain's unit-labour-cost growth is probably "well above the pace consistent with the inflation target of 2%".

英格兰银行的迈克尔·桑德斯指出,由于每年达成的薪资协议高达5%,但生产力增长只有1%左右,英国的单位劳动力成本增长可能“远高于与2%的通胀目标相一致的速度”。

Our last two measures assess households' expectations. The higher these remain, the more likely it is that inflation becomes embedded.

我们最后两个指标评估的是家庭对通胀的预期。这些数值越高,通胀就可能越顽固。

One proprietary data set, provided to The Economist by researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Morning Consult, a consultancy, and Raphael Schoenle of Brandeis University, is a rare reliable cross-country gauge of public inflation expectations.

来自克利夫兰联邦储备银行的研究人员、美国晨间咨询公司和布兰迪斯大学的拉斐尔·舍恩勒向《经济学人》提供了一组专有数据,这组数据是罕见的衡量公众通胀预期的可靠跨国指标。

In May 2021 a respondent in the median rich country thought inflation over the next 12 months would be 2.3%. Now they expect a rate of 4.5%; Canadians, an even higher 6%.

2021年5月,一份针对中等富裕国家的调查显示,人们认为未来12个月的通胀率将为2.3%。现在他们预计这一数据为4.5%;加拿大民众对于通胀率的预计更是高达6%。

A measure of Google searches also suggests the subject is weighing on people's minds. Britons now search more frequently for "inflation" than they do for Taylor Swift.

对谷歌搜索量的评估也表明,通货膨胀正困扰着人们。现在,英国人对“通货膨胀”的搜索量比“泰勒·斯威夫特”还要频繁。

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produce [prə'dju:s]

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n. 产品,农作物
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