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Democratic deficit
民主亏损
Turning a profit from political news is a lot harder than it looks.
从政治新闻中获取利润看似简单，实则不易。
To meet the world’s biggest news junkies, head not to Washington or Westminster. Instead, make your way to a trading floor, where information from every corner of the globe must be parsed the instant it emerges.
若要见到世界上中毒最深的新闻上瘾者，不要前往华盛顿或威斯敏斯特。相反，你应该去交易大厅，在那里，来自全球各地的信息一经出现就必须被解析一番。
Whatever the news, from coups to company-earnings reports, it probably affects the price of something.
无论是什么新闻，从政变到公司盈利报告，都可能影响到某些东西的价格。
Electorates representing most of the world’s population are heading to polling booths, and not just market-makers but investors everywhere face the tantalising prospect of trading on the results.
代表世界大部分人口的选民都正前往投票站，不仅是做市商，各地的投资者也都面临着根据选举结果进行交易的诱人前景。
The rewards of doing so successfully are difficult to ignore, since an incoming government has a huge capacity to influence investors’ returns.
这样做如果成功了，所获得的回报是很难被忽视的，因为新政府有巨大的能力来影响投资者的收益。
Its fiscal decisions will alter the course of sovereign-bond yields, company profits and foreign-exchange rates. Subsidies, tariffs and regulation will determine which industries get a boost and which are knocked for six.
其财政决策将改变主权债券收益率、公司利润和外汇汇率的走势。补贴、关税和监管将决定哪些行业会得到提振，哪些行业会遭受重创。
Less tangible, if no less important, the vibes that a new administration gives off concerning trade, cross-border investment and commerce in general will help decide whether foreign capital floods in or beats a quiet retreat.
不那么有形可见，但重要性也丝毫不减的是，新政府在贸易、跨境投资和商业等方面所释放的气氛也有助于决定外资是涌入还是悄然撤离。
It all hits the bottom line. Still, the temptation of trying to make a quick buck from politics should be resisted. For most, it is simply too hard. To see why, return to that trading floor.
这一切都触及了盈利。不过，从政治新闻中捞快钱的诱惑应该被抑制。对大多数人来说，这样做太难了。要想知道原因，让我们回到交易大厅。
You might indeed have identified that a political development—a snap election in Britain, a president haemorrhaging support in America, a poll suggesting France’s parliament might fall to the far right—is likely to affect asset prices.
你可能确实已经发现，一项政治事态的发展——英国的提前选举、美国总统支持率的大幅下降、显示法国议会可能落入极右翼手中的民意调查——可能会影响资产价格。
But the traders and their algos will have got there first. By the time you have placed your bet that a battered currency will recover, a yield curve will steepen or a bond spread will widen, most of the move will already have happened and the lion’s share of your profits will have already gone.
但交易员和他们的算法会抢先一步。当你押注遭受重创的货币将会复苏、收益率曲线将会变陡、债券利差将会扩大时，大部分的变动已经发生，你利润的大部分已经消失。
Suppose you booked your trade in time for the juice to still be worth the squeeze. Perhaps it was the night of June 27th and Donald Trump had just trounced Joe Biden in a televised debate.
假设你及时预订了交易，还来得及榨取一些利润。可能是在6月27日的晚上，唐纳德·特朗普刚刚在电视辩论中击败了乔·拜登。
You decided deficit-funded tax cuts under Trump’s presidency had just become more likely, which, all else being equal, would push up Treasury yields. And you were right: by July 1st the ten-year Treasury yield had risen by nearly 20 basis points.
你认定更有可能特朗普担任总统并出台赤字资助的减税政策，在其他条件相同的情况下，这将推高美国国债收益率。而且你的推测不错：到7月1日，十年期国债收益率已经上升了近20个基点。
But all else is never equal. Over the next couple of weeks, even as Mr Trump’s chances looked as strong as ever, weak employment figures and surprisingly cool inflation data would have brought yields back down and then some, putting your trade into the red.
但其他条件绝不会相同。在接下来的几周里，尽管特朗普的胜算看起来一如既往地大，但疲弱的就业数据和出人意料的低通胀数据会使收益率重新下降，甚至变得更低，从而使你的交易出现亏损。
You would have made the right political call, and other factors would have swamped its consequences.
你可能做出了正确的政治上的决策，但其他因素会盖过这一政治事件带来的结果。
For a certain type of investor, this very unpredictability is the whole point of betting on anything: bearing risk is precisely what creates the potential for outperformance. Perhaps.
对于某类投资者而言，这种不可预测性正是任何押注的全部意义所在：创造跑赢大盘的可能性的关键就是承担风险。或许是这样。
But deliberate exposure to this sort of radical uncertainty is a far cry from most people’s investment strategy. News junkies should enjoy this year’s electoral drama to their hearts’ content—and keep their trading apps firmly closed.
但刻意暴露在这种极端的不确定性中，与大多数人的投资策略相去甚远。新闻上瘾者们应该尽情享受今年的选举大戏——并牢牢关闭他们的交易应用程序。
