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Why Germany’s Economy, Once a Leader in Europe, Is Now in Crisis
为什么曾经领先欧洲的德国经济现在遭遇危机
As Germans prepare for a snap election after the collapse of a fragile government coalition, one issue at the top of voters’ minds will be how the new government would revive the country’s once powerful economy at a time when energy prices are high and companies are cutting jobs.
在脆弱的联盟政府垮台后，德国人正为提前选举做准备，选民们最关心的一个问题将是在能源价格高企、企业纷纷裁员之际，新政府将如何重振曾经强大的德国经济。
Germany, Europe’s largest economy, has not seen significant growth in the past two years.
德国是欧洲最大的经济体，但在过去两年中经济没有出现显著增长。
On Friday, the economy recorded 0.1 percent growth from July to September, but it is forecast to contract over the entire year.
周五的数据显示，7月至9月期间德国经济增长了0.1%，但预计全年将出现收缩。
And economists do not expect to see a return to growth in 2025, unless a new government can make significant changes quickly.
并且经济学家预计，除非新政府能够迅速做出重大改变，否则2025年不会出现增长。
Driving that point home, Germany’s largest auto supplier, Bosch, said on Friday that it planned to cut 5,500 jobs, beginning in 2027.
更让人明白要做出改变的是，德国最大的汽车供应商博世在周五表示，计划从2027年开始削减5500个工作岗位。
More than two-thirds will be at German factories.
超过三分之二的裁员将发生在德国工厂。
High energy prices, a complex bureaucracy, aging public infrastructure and geopolitical developments have hurt Germany’s export industry.
能源价格高昂、官僚机构复杂、公共基础设施老化和地缘政治的发展都损害了德国的出口行业。
Political paralysis under the previous government exacerbated the situation.
上届政府的政治瘫痪又加剧了这种情况。
The three-party coalition led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz spent the last year bickering over issues from energy to immigration before finally collapsing this month.
由奥拉夫·朔尔茨总理领导的三党联盟在过去一年中争吵不休，争论了从能源到移民的各种问题，然后最终于本月瓦解。
Early elections on Feb. 23 are likely to result in a new government, which will have the opportunity to turn things around.
明年2月23日进行的提前选举可能会带来一个新政府，从而有机会扭转局面。
But economists warn that this will require changes to tax and welfare policies, as well as deregulation and investment in infrastructure.
但是经济学家警告说，除了放松管制和对基础设施进行投资，还将需要改变税收和福利政策。
The Cost of Political Uncertainty
政治不确定性的代价
German industrial companies have seen production shrink more than 12 percent since 2018.
自2018年以来，德国工业企业的产量减少了12%以上。
Many point to a lack of clear signals from Berlin on where they should direct investment.
许多人指出这是因为国家没有发出明确的、应该向哪里投资的信号。
An example was an abrupt decision by the government to end subsidies for electric vehicles at the end of last year, in an effort to slim down the budget.
一个例子是，政府在去年年底突然决定终止对电动汽车的补贴，目的是努力缩减预算。
Automakers, which had been ramping up production of battery-powered cars, saw demand plunge after spooked customers pulled back.
而汽车制造商一直在增加电池动力汽车的产量，受到惊吓的消费者退缩后，电动车的需求暴跌。
The fallout from that decision has led to enormous job cuts in the automotive industry this year.
该决定的后果导致今年汽车行业大量裁员。
On Wednesday, Ford Motor announced that it was eliminating 4,000 jobs in Europe, most of them in Germany.
周三，福特汽车宣布将在欧洲裁员4000人，其中大部分在德国。
Volkswagen is threatening to close up to three of its 10 German factories as part of the restructuring needed to return the brand to profitability.
大众汽车在德国有10家工厂，也扬言要关闭最多3家，这是大众为恢复盈利而进行的重组工作的一部分。
After losing natural gas from Russia following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Mr. Scholz’s government quickly pivoted to importing liquefied natural gas, which has kept homes warm and reserves full, but also has resulted in a 40 percent jump in prices from the year before.
2022年俄乌战争后，德国失去了来自俄罗斯的天然气供应，朔尔茨政府迅速转向进口液化天然气，这使得家庭得以取暖，储备得以充足，但也导致天然气价格比前一年上涨了40%。
Nevertheless, the government went ahead with plans to shut down the country’s last nuclear reactor.
然而政府还是继续推进关闭该国最后一座核反应堆的计划。
Analysts point out that such zigzag strategies make it difficult for business leaders to plan investments or predict costs.
分析人士指出，这种反复不定的策略使得企业领袖很难规划投资或预测成本。
That frustration has translated into record levels of pessimism among Germany’s industrial leaders, according to a survey by the ifo Institute in Munich.
根据慕尼黑伊福经济研究所的一项调查，这种挫败感已经转化为德国工业领袖创纪录的悲观水平。
