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The housing market is in trouble.
房地产市场陷入了困境。
The number of sales in September is down 24% from a year ago to the lowest level in a decade. Prices are falling a bit, too.
9月份的销量较上年同期下降24%，降至10年来的最低水平。物价也有所下降。
NPR's Chris Arnold joins us now to talk about whether the market could get even worse. Hey there, Chris.
NPR新闻的克里斯·阿诺德现在将和我们连线，讨论市场是否会变得更糟。你好，克里斯。
Hey, Steve.
你好, 史蒂夫。
I think it's obvious to most people, but talk us through what's happening to the market.
我认为对大多数人来说，显而易见，市场会变得更糟，不过，还是请给我们详细讲讲住房市场发生了什么。
Well, as you probably would have guessed, this has everything to do with interest rates.
嗯，你可能已经猜到了，这和利率有很大关系。
I mean, they've gone from 3% at the start of the year to now up above 7%.
利率从年初的3%上升到现在的7%以上。
I mean, that is a huge jump for something as expensive as a house.
对于像房子这样昂贵的东西来说，这是一次巨大的涨幅。
It adds $1,000 a month, about, to the monthly payment for a typical house.
这样一来，一套普通房子的月供就会增加约1,000美元。
And that's making people rethink if they can afford to buy a home.
这让人们重新思考他们是否有能力买房。
And a lot of families with kids are struggling with this right now.
现在很多有孩子的家庭都在为此苦苦挣扎。
I talked to Heather Gant. She used to be a Navy diesel mechanic. Her husband's an officer in the Navy.
我和希瑟·甘特谈过了。她以前是海军的柴油机修理师。她丈夫是海军军官。
And he's away on a ship now.
他现在不再在船上工作了。
And they've agreed to buy a new home that's almost built in Virginia.
他们就在弗吉尼亚州购买一套即将建成的新房子达成一致。
He said last night that he hasn't been sleeping.
他昨晚说他一直没睡。
Thinking about it just keeps me up every night.
每晚一想到这事儿，我都睡不着。
And then he just said, we're so screwed.
他说，我们完蛋了。
And so then I said, well, then let's just back out.
我说，嗯，那我们就退出吧。
Actually, despite all of the angst, they are going to buy the place.
事实上，尽管有这么多焦虑，他们还是会买下这个地方。
But a lot of buyers just really can't afford it. And this affects sellers, too.
但很多买家实在买不起。这也会影响卖家。
You know, if you've got a mortgage at 3% or less than your current house, you know, you don't really want to go buy another house and pay 7% on a mortgage.
如果你的房子的抵押贷款利率在3%或低于现在房子的抵押贷款利率，那么，你实在不会想再买一套房子，支付7%的抵押贷款利率。
Chris, even before this happened, the housing market seemed dysfunctional and choked.
克里斯，甚至在这一切发生之前，住房市场就似乎已经功能失调，陷入停滞了。
There weren't enough houses going on the market. Prices were going through the roof. So where does it head now?
市场上没有足够多的房子待售。物价飞涨。住房市场现在将走向何方?
Well, that depends on what parts of that you look at. I mean, there are some ominous signs.
嗯，这取决于你关注的是哪一部分。我是说，有一些不祥的征兆。
Sales have fallen for eight straight months now.
销售额已经连续8个月下降了。
Eight months in a row, fewer homes sold than the month before that - does not happen very often.
连续八个月，房屋销量低于前一个月--这种情况并不会经常发生。
I talked to Lawrence Yun about this. He's the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.
我和劳伦斯·云谈过这个情况。他是全美房地产经纪人协会的首席经济学家。
The last time we saw this is back in 2007, essentially a few months right before the great housing market crash that occurred.
上次我们看到这种情况是在2007年，基本上是在房地产市场大崩盘发生前的几个月。
Now, of course, there are some differences.
当然，两者还是有区别的。
There's some very big differences.
有一些非常大的区别。
I mean, back then, millions of people had these subprime mortgages that were just - had these crazy terms where the payments went so high, no one could afford them.
那时候，数以百万计的人背负次级房屋抵押贷款--这些次贷的条款很疯狂，还贷数额非常高昂，没有人能负担得起。
Yeah.
是的。
That led to a wave of foreclosures.
这导致了一波取消抵押品赎回权的浪潮。
And so we had this glut of homes for sale, way too many homes.
我们那时有大量的房子待售，房子太多了。
Today, it's the opposite.
如今，情况正好相反。
People have fixed-rate, safe mortgages that they can afford.
人们享有固定利率，享有可以负担得起的安全抵押贷款。
And we have a housing shortage. Here's Lawrence Yun.
我们出现了住房短缺。以下是劳伦斯·云的发言。
We had over 4 million homes available for sale back in the housing market crash of 2008-2009, 4 million.
2008-2009年房地产市场崩盘时，我们有超过400万套房子待售。
Today we are just at 1 million level, so still very tight inventory condition.
如今，我们只有100万的房子待售，住房存量非常紧张。
Oh, wait a minute. The dysfunctional issue that I mentioned before, the shortage of homes for sale, might actually save the market?
哦，等一下。我之前提到的住房功能失调的问题，待售房屋不足，这些也许真的能拯救市场?
Exactly. You know, nationally, most economists think, OK, prices might fall a bit - some say 10% from the tippy-top peak, maybe a little more - but not a crash.
是的。在全国范围内，大多数经济学家认为，价格可能会下降一点——一些人认为会从最高点下降10%，也许会更多一点——但不会崩溃。
And it's actually amazing. I mean, homes are selling, on average, in just 19 days. That's really fast.
这真的很惊人。房子平均在19天内就卖出去了。速度非常快。
So even with higher rates and fewer sales, there still just aren't enough homes. And they're selling quickly.
即使利率很高，出售很少，房屋仍然不够。而且房子卖得很快。
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