Among the annoying challenges facing the middle class is one that will probably go unmentioned in the next presidential campaign: What happens when the robots come for their jobs?
中产阶级所面临的一个令人恼火的挑战可能不会在下一届总统竞选时被提及,那就是:机器人取代了他们的工作后将会发生什么?
Don't dismiss that possibility entirely.
不要完全排除这种可能性。
About half of U.S. jobs are at high risk of being automated, according to a University of Oxford study, with the middle class disproportionately squeezed.
牛津大学的一项研究显示,美国有大约一半工作面临着被自动化取代的高风险,而压力最大的则是中产阶级。
Lower-income jobs like gardening or day care don't appeal to robots.
园艺、日托等低收入职业并不会吸引机器人。
But many middle-class occupations - trucking, financial advice, software engineering - have aroused their interest, or soon will.
但货运、财务咨询、软件工程等许多中产阶级职业已经或马上就会引起它们的兴趣。
The rich own the robots, so they will be fine.
富人是机器人的拥有者,因此他们没事。
This isn't to be alarmist. Optimists point out that technological upheaval has benefited workers in the past.
这不是危言耸听。乐观主义者指出,在过去,技术的发展让工人受益。
The Industrial Revolution didn't go so well for Luddites whose jobs were displaced by mechanized looms, but it eventually raised living standards and created more jobs than it destroyed.
工业革命对于被机械织布机取代工作的卢德派而言并不顺利,但它最终提高了人们的生活水平,创造的就业机会也比淘汰的工作要多。
Likewise, automation should eventually boost productivity, stimulate demand by driving down prices, and free workers from hard, boring work.
同样地,自动化最终会提高生产力、通过拉低价格来刺激需求、把工人从艰苦枯燥的工作中解放出来。
But in the medium term, middle-class workers may need a lot of help adjusting.
但从中期来看,中产阶级工人可能需要很多帮助才能调整。
The first step, as Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee argue in The Second Machine Age, should be rethinking education and job training.
正如埃里克·布莱恩约弗森和安德鲁·麦卡菲在二人合著的《第二次机器革命》中所述,第一步应该是重新思考教育和职业培训。
Curriculums - from grammar school to college - should evolve to focus less on memorizing facts and more on creativity and complex communication.
从文法学校到大学的课程应该发展成更加注重创新和复杂交流,而不是记忆事实。
Vocational schools should do a better job of fostering problem-solving skills and helping students work alongside robots.
职业学校应该更好地培养学生解决问题和帮助学生与机器人共事的能力。
Online education can supplement the traditional kind. It could make extra training and instruction affordable.
在线教育可以作为传统教育的补充,它提供了让人们负担得起的额外培训和指导。
Professionals trying to acquire new skills will be able to do so without going into debt.
专业人士不用负债累累也可以获取新技能了。
The challenge of coping with automation underlines the need for the U.S. to revive its fading business dynamism: Starting new companies must be made easier.
应对自动化这一挑战强调,美国需要重振其衰退的商业活力:创立新公司要变得更加容易。
In previous eras of drastic technological change, entrepreneurs smoothed the transition by dreaming up ways to combine labor and machines.
在过去的技术大变革时代,企业家将劳动力和机器进行结合,以此实现平稳过渡。
The best uses of 3D printers and virtual reality haven't been invented yet. The U.S. needs the new companies that will invent them.
现在仍未发明出3D打印机和虚拟现实的最佳用途,而美国需要新的公司来发明出来。
Finally, because automation threatens to widen the gap between capital income and labor income, taxes and the safety net will have to be rethought.
最后,由于自动化会扩大资本收入与劳动收入之间的差距,人们必须重新考虑税收和安全网。
Taxes on low-wage labor need to be cut, and wage subsidies such as the earned income tax credit should be expanded:
应当削减低薪员工的税收,增加所得税优惠等工资补贴:
This would boost incomes, encourage work, reward companies for job creation, and reduce inequality.
这会提高收入、鼓励工作、奖励创造就业的公司以及减少不平等。
Technology will improve society in ways big and small over the next few years, yet this will be little comfort to those who find their lives and careers upended by automation.
在未来的几年里,技术将会以或大或小的方式改善社会,但对于那些因自动化而颠倒生活和工作的人而言,这并不能安慰到他们。
Destroying the machines that are coming for our jobs would be nuts. But policies to help workers adapt will be indispensable.
摧毁那些因我们的工作而生的机器是疯狂的,但帮助工人适应的政策将是必不可少的。