World on the edge
命悬一线的世界

Whatever happens in Congress, the crisis is now global; that means governments must work together
无论美国会意思如何，此次危机已经是演变为全球性的了；这就意味着各国政府必须协同作战。

AMERICA’S Congress is not used to being second-guessed. But as lawmakers wrestled in the Capitol, world stockmarkets have been giving real-time odds on the Bush administration’s $700 billion bail-out becoming law. After the plan’s thrashing by the House of Representatives on September 29th, spurred on by voters’ loathing of “casino capitalism”, investors panicked. Yet as The Economist went to press, they were optimistic that, after winning the Senate’s approval on October 1st, the plan would pass.
美国国会还没有习惯被猜来猜去（不曾被猜测过），但随着法律制定者们在国会大厦中的角力，全球股市都在时时关注布什政府7000亿美元救助法案的进程。9月29日救助计划因选民们对“赌场资本主义”的痛恨而遭到众院拒绝，这个消息让投资者陷入一片恐慌之中。不过在经济学家付印的时候他们还是很乐观的，因为他们在10月1日赢得了参院的批准，该方案应该会通过。

Even if it does, that should not be a cause for optimism. Look beyond the stockmarkets, especially at the seized-up money markets, and there is little to see except bank failures, emergency rescues and high anxiety in the credit markets. These forces are drawing the financial system closer to disaster and the rich world to the edge of a nasty recession (see article). The bail-out package should mitigate the problems, but it will not avert them.
即使方案（放案）通过了，人们也没有理由变得乐观：如果目光放远些，不单单盯着股市、特别是已然停顿的货币市场，那么就除了银行倒闭、紧急救助和充斥焦虑的信贷市场外，就别奢望能看到别的景象了。这些力量正将金融系统拖向灾难，也正将发达国家拽向凶残的经济萧条边缘。整体救助计划（异化）应该可以缓解问题，但却无法完全避免。

The crisis is spreading in two directions—across the Atlantic to Europe, and out of the financial markets into the real economy. Governments have been dealing with it disaster by disaster. They have struggled to gain control not just because of the speed of contagion but also because policymakers, and the public they serve, have failed fully to grasp the breadth and depth of the crisis.
危机向着两个方向展开：地缘上越过大西洋到达欧洲，范围上突破金融市场进入实体经济领域。政府一直应对这接二连三的灾难，他们努力进行控制的原因不仅是因为危机蔓延的速度，还因为政府所服务的决策者和公众完全没有领会到此次危机的深度和广度。

What’s the Icelandic for “domino”?
冰岛人也明白骨牌效应

Step forward, Peer Steinbrück, Germany’s finance minister, who rashly declared on September 25th that America was “the source…and the focus of the crisis”, before heralding the end of its role as the financial superpower. Within days, the focus shifted and Mr Steinbrück and his officials were obliged to arrange a Euro35 billion ($51 billion) loan from German banks and the German government to save Hypo Real Estate, the country’s second-biggest property lender.
德国财长施泰因布吕克在9月25日站出来鲁莽的宣称美国在结束超级金融大国地位之前一直是“危机的源泉和中心”。而数日内该中心旋即发生了转移，施泰恩布 吕克先生和他的同僚们从德国银行和德国政府强行安排了350亿欧元（约合510亿美元），用以拯救Hypo Real Estate这个全国第二大的抵押贷款银行。

The hapless Mr Steinbrück is not alone. European banks were collapsing at a dizzying pace even as Christian Noyer, governor of the Bank of France, declared that “there is no drama in front of us.” Hypo Real Estate was just one of five banks in seven European countries bailed out in three days. Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands carved up Fortis, a big bancassurer; Britain nationalised Bradford & Bingley; Belgium, France and Luxembourg saved Dexia; and Iceland rescued Glitnir. Separately, Ireland took Euro 400 billion of contingent liabilities onto the national balance sheet, when it stood behind the deposits and debts of its six large banks and building societies. You have to wonder what Mr Noyer regards as dramatic.
倒霉的施泰因布吕克先生却并不孤单：即使法国央行理事Christian Noyer,宣布“我们面前没有什么悲剧”，但欧洲银行还是以令人晕眩的速度进入崩塌状态。Hypo Real Estate只是三天内欧洲七国进行救助的五家银行之一。何比卢三国共同救助了大型银行保险服务商——Fortis；英国抵押贷款供应商Bradford & Bingley变身国有化；法比卢又救助了比利时德克夏银行；冰岛救助了格里特利尔银行。除此以外，爱尔兰使用国家资产承担了价值4000亿欧元的或有性 负债，当然这是因为六家大银行以及房屋社团提供了存款和债务作为后盾。至此，人们不得不思考一下Noyer先生所谓的悲剧性到底指什么。

By some measures, many European banks look more vulnerable than their American counterparts do—and that is saying quite something, given the past week’s forced sale of Washington Mutual, America’s biggest thrift, and Wachovia, its fourth-biggest commercial bank. In America, outside Wall Street, the banks have lent 96 cents for each $1 of deposits. Continental European banks have lent roughly Euro1.40 for each Euro1 of deposits. They have to borrow the rest from money-market investors, who are not especially confident just now. Some Europeans, including the British, Irish and Spanish banks, have housing busts of their own. And they must contend with the toxic American securities they bought by the billion, as well as their own slowing economies.
从某些方面看来，欧洲银行看起来比他们的美国同行要脆弱得多：鉴于在过去的一周里，全美最大的互助储蓄银行华互以及第四大商业银行瓦霍维亚银行先后被强行 拍卖，这很说明问题。在美国除华尔街以外的其它银行中，每一美元的存款被放贷支出96美分；欧洲中央银行基于1欧元的储蓄却几乎贷出了1.4欧元，因此他 们不得不从金融市场投资者那里借入存贷差额部分，而后者目前却是格外的不自信。包括英国、爱尔兰和西班牙在内的欧洲银行都遭受房市萧条的影响；同时还必须 （满足）对抗花费数十亿购买的美国不良资产和自己缓慢发展的经济。