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M: Kathy, chaos theory seems to be a branch of physics or mathematics. You are an economist, so how does it influence your work?
男：凯西，混沌理论好像是物理学或数学的分支。作为经济学家，这一理论对你的工作有何影响？
W: Well, in several ways. I am responsible for financial development programs in many parts of the world, so forecasting long range trends and making predictions on the basis of present evidence is what I do. Chaos theory was developed by scientists, trying to explain the movement of the planets and the changes in environmental conditions. Both of these things are also about making long-term predictions on the basis of present evidence.
女：很多方面都有影响。我负责世界上大部分地区的金融发展项目，我的工作是预测长期趋势以及依据现有信息进行预测。混沌理论是科学家研究出来的，用来解释行星的运动和环境条件的变化。这些都要依据现有信息进行长期预测。
M: Are many economists involved in this field?
男：涉及这一领域的经济学家多吗？
W: An increasing number. In the 1990s, many economists began to look at chaos theory as a way of providing models for forecasting.
女：越来越多。上世纪90年代，许多经济学家开始将混沌理论作为提供预测模型的一种方法。
M: What kind of "models" are we talking about here?
男：这里指的是哪种模型？
W: Well, that's a good question, because the basic idea of chaos theory is that there aren't any "models" as such— there aren't guaranteed forms, but rather patterns of change in development.
女：这是个好问题，混沌理论的基本思想是，严格来说，并不存在任何模型，没有可以确保的形式，只有发展变化的模式。
M: Doesn't that mean that forecasting is impossible?
男：这是不是意味着不可能进行预测？
W: No, but it certainly makes it more of a challenge. Mandelbrot, who did the experiment with stock exchanges prices, for example, noted that although the outcomes were variable, there were in fact certain constancy. What we have to do is make sure we know what these are and take into account all the possible variables.
女：不是，不过这的确增加了挑战性。举例来说，进行股份实验的曼德尔布罗特曾指出，虽然结果是变量，但是其中也存在着一定的不变因素。我们要做的就是确定这些不变因素，同时把可能的变量考虑进去。
M: But do economics and finance work in the same way as weather conditions or the movement of planets?
男：那经济工作和金融工作同天气情况和行星运动的预测一样吗？
W: Well, no, of course not. There are certain underlying similarities. But we have to leave them for another time.
女：当然不一样。不过也存在一定的相似之处，我们下次再讲这个。
Questions 13 to 15 are based on the conversation you have just heard.
问题13到问题15依据你刚刚听到的对话进行提问。
Questions 13. What is the woman's profession?
问题13. 女子的职业是什么？
Questions 14. What was chaos theory supposed to do when it was first formulated?
问题14. 混沌理论首次提出时被用来做什么？
Questions 15. What are the speakers mainly talking about?
问题15. 说话者主要谈了什么内容？
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