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An air-conditioner that overheats in hot weather, or an insurance policy that fails to pay out after a natural disaster:
天气炎热时过热的空调，或者是自然灾害后无法获赔的保险单：
some things do not work as expected, just when you need them most. So it is with official statistics in the pandemic.
就在你最需要的时候，有些东西无法发挥预期的作用。疫情中的官方数据也一样。
As they try to gauge the depth of the downturn,
当他们试图衡量经济下滑的深度时，
policymakers and investors are keener to pore over the latest GDP figures than ever. But estimates have rarely been as uncertain.
立法者和投资者比以前任何时候都热衷于解读最新的GDP数据。但是预测很少出现不确定性。
Many economists expect the initial estimate of America's output growth in the first quarter of 2020,
很多经济学家预测，4月29日，美国公布的对2020年第一季度产出增长的
published on April 29th, to be revised downwards eventually.
初步估计最终会下调。
Some of that may arrive as soon as May 28th, after The Economist went to press, when an update to the figures was due.
其中一些数据可能会在5月28日本刊付印之后公布，届时将更新数据。
Analysts at Goldman Sachs, a bank, reckon that early estimates might capture only around 60% of the economic drag from the coronavirus.
高盛投资公司的分析师认为，早期预测可能只占冠状病毒对经济影响的约60%。
If the true year-on-year fall in America's GDP is around 12% in the second quarter,
如果第二季度，美国GDP的真实同比下降12%，
as many economists expect, the initial release might indicate a decline of only 7-8%.
正如很多经济学家预测，最初公布的数据可能显示降幅仅为7-8%。
Statisticians are well aware of the uncertainty.
统计学家很清楚这种不确定性。
Britain's Office for National Statistics (ONS) has mulled introducing confidence intervals for its estimates-but no one knows quite how wide the bands should be.
英国国家统计局（ONS）已经考虑为其经济预测引入可靠区间，但是没人之间区间宽度应该设置为多少。
France's statistical office says that its first-quarter estimate of GDP is "fragile". Many are trying to fill in data gaps where they can.
法国统计局表示，其对第一季度GDP的预测很“脆弱”。很多人员仍在尽力填补数据缺口。
Estimates of GDP during downturns tend to be revised downwards significantly.
在经济下行时期，对GDP的预测往往会大幅下调。
Response rates to surveys often fall in slumps; because firms doing badly are particularly likely to stop responding,
各行业对调查的响应率通常会急剧下降；因为经营不善的公司尤其有可能停止回应，
the data gleaned paint a misleadingly optimistic picture.
因此收集到的数据可能会描绘出一幅乐观的场景，误导大家。
Though statistics offices are encouraged, if not required by law, to produce estimates quickly, many data sources are only published with long lags.
虽然统计部门受到鼓励（如果法律没有要求）要迅速做出预测，但很多数据源的公布非常滞后。
Wonks can temporarily fill in figures for the missing sectors, but their techniques for doing so may not be up to scratch during periods of economic stress.
学究们可以临时填补缺失部门的数字，但在经济紧张时期，他们的这项技法达不到要求。
译文由可可原创，仅供学习交流使用，未经许可请勿转载。
