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Computer chips
电脑芯片
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The global chip shortage is here for some time
全球芯片短缺将持续一段时间
FOR WANT of a chip, the factory was lost. On May 18th Toyota became the latest carmaker forced to cut production amid a global shortage of microchips, announcing it would suspend work at two of its plants in Japan. Firms including Ford, General Motors and Jaguar Land Rover have also had to send workers home.
由于缺少芯片，工厂一筹莫展。5月18日，丰田宣布将暂停其在日本的两家工厂的工作，成为最新一家因全球微芯片短缺而被迫减产的汽车制造商。包括福特、通用汽车和捷豹路虎在内的公司也不得不让员工回家。
The pain is not confined to the car industry, for the shortage spans all sorts of chips, from the expensive, high-tech devices that power smartphones and data centres to the simple sensors and microcontrollers that have become a vital commodity, scattered across everything from cars to washing machines, and often costing just a few cents each. In the past few weeks companies including Foxconn, Nintendo and Samsung have warned of hits to production, affecting everything from smartphones and games consoles to televisions and home broadband routers.
疼痛并不局限于汽车行业，因为这种短缺涉及各种芯片，从为智能手机和数据中心供电的昂贵高科技设备，到已成为重要商品的简单传感器和微控制器。后者广泛应用于汽车和洗衣机等各种产品，单个成本往往仅需几美分。过去几周，富士康、任天堂和三星等公司都发出了生产受到冲击的警告，从智能手机、游戏机到电视和家庭宽带路由器，一切都将受到影响。
Governments are worried. America's called a summit in April; another is due on May 20th. Germany's finance minister has written to the government of Taiwan, where many chipmakers are based, lobbying for priority for carmakers. A report from Gavekal Research, a consultancy, published on May 4th, said the shortage might soon hit export performance in several East Asian economies. But there is little that ministers can do. The chip drought is the result of the covid-19 pandemic interacting with an industry that is notoriously prone to cycles of boom and bust. It is likely to persist for months, if not years.
各国政府忧心忡忡。美国在4月召开了一场峰会，5月20日又举行了一场。德国财政部长已致函台湾政府，游说台湾优先考虑汽车制造商。台湾有许多芯片制造商。咨询公司Gavekal Research于5月4日发布的一份报告称，短缺可能很快会影响几个东亚经济体的出口表现。但是部长们无能为力。这次芯片短缺是新冠疫情和一个众所周知容易出现繁荣和萧条周期的行业相互作用的结果。这种情况可能会持续数月，甚至数年。
"The most important thing (to recognise)", says Malcolm Penn, who runs Future Horizons, a chip-industry consultancy, "is that shortages are a natural part of the industry." Chipmaking, he says, is a good example of what economists call a "pork-cycle" business, named for the regular swings between under-and over-supply first analysed in American pork markets in the 1920s. As with pigs, the supply of chips cannot quickly react to changes in demand. Capacity was tight even before the pandemic, says Mr Penn, pointing out that investment by chipmakers in factory equipment has been below its long-term average for many years.
芯片行业咨询公司Future Horizons的负责人马尔科姆·佩恩表示：“最重要的事情(需要认识到的)是，短缺是该行业的自然组成部分。”他说，芯片制造是经济学家所谓的“猪肉周期”商业的一个很好的例子。“猪肉周期”指的是20世纪20年代首次在美国猪肉市场分析的供给不足和供过于得之间的定期波动。和猪一样，芯片的供应不能迅速对需求的变化做出反应。佩恩表示，产能甚至在疫情之前就已经紧张。他指出，芯片制造商对工厂设备的投资多年来一直低于其长期平均水平。
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