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Finance & economics
财经版块
European economics
欧洲经济
Maladie chronique
慢性顽疾（注：标题为法语）
France is not alone in its fiscal woes.
并非只有法国身陷财政困境。
When things got tough, European finance ministers used to sigh and say that at least they were not Greek.
当情况变得艰难时，欧洲各国的财政部长们过去常常叹口气，然后说至少他们不是希腊人。
Today, some would struggle to make such a comment.
现在，有些人很难再给出这种评论。
On December 2nd the yield on Greek bonds fell below that on French ones, indicating investors thought it safer to lend to Greece than France.
12月2日，希腊国债收益率降至法国国债收益率之下，这表明投资者认为给希腊提供贷款比给法国提供贷款更安全。
The yield on French bonds is now 0.8 percentage points above German bunds, the euro zone’s benchmark, which is the widest gap since the near-collapse of the euro in 2012.
法国国债的收益率现在比德国国债（欧元区的基准）高出0.8个百分点，这是自2012年欧元几近崩溃以来的最大差距。
On December 4th the French government crumbled in a row over spending.
12月4日，法国政府在支出问题上发生争吵并随之垮台。（注：法国总理的削减开支草案直接导致国民议会投票推翻了法国政府，总理辞职。）
Will European finance ministers soon sigh and say that at least they are not French?
欧洲的财政部长们是否很快就会叹口气，然后说至少他们不是法国人？
The EU’s second-biggest economy faces severe problems.
欧盟第二大经济体法国面临着严峻的问题。
The first is the government’s fiscal deficit.
首先是政府的财政赤字。
At over 6% of GDP, this year’s figure will end up much higher than the government had predicted and independent forecasters had expected.
今年的赤字超过GDP的6%，最终将远远高于政府的预测和独立预测者的预期。
Worse still, the IMF expects the deficit to stay at this level—well above the 3% maximum mandated by the European Commission—until the end of the decade.
更糟糕的是，国际货币基金组织预计，直到2029年底，赤字将保持在这一水平——远高于欧盟委员会规定的3%的上限。
Wide deficits add to France’s debt level, which is forecast to reach 115% of GDP next year, about 17 percentage points higher than in 2018.
巨额赤字增加了法国的债务水平，预计明年赤字将达到GDP的115%，比2018年高出约17个百分点。
By 2029 it will have reached 124% of GDP, according to the IMF.
根据国际货币基金组织的数据，到2029年，赤字将达到GDP的124%。
Spending on interest payments is thus expected to rise from 1.9% of GDP to 2.9%.
因此利息支出预计将从GDP的1.9%上升到2.9%。
And that is based on healthy economic-growth expectations.
这个预期还是以经济健康增长为基础。
Goldman Sachs has cut its growth forecast to just 0.7% next year.
高盛已将法国明年的增长预测下调至仅0.7%。
If the bank’s analysts are correct, interest payments will be even more painful and debt higher still relative to GDP.
如果高盛的分析师是正确的，那么利息支付将更加痛苦，债务相对于GDP的比例将更高。
France has not been the only big spender.
法国并不是唯一一个有巨额支出的国家。
Even countries usually renowned for their fiscal hawkishness, including Austria, Germany and the Netherlands, have experienced widening deficits in recent years.
就连包括奥地利、德国和荷兰在内的通常以财政鹰派著称的国家近年来也经历了赤字扩大。（注：财政鹰派主张减开支、少贷款、少赤字。）
The covid-19 pandemic and the energy crisis that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine got things going.
新冠疫情以及俄乌战争引发的能源危机推动了赤字扩大。
Indeed, in 2022 governments spent more supporting their economies than after the global financial crisis of 2007-09, notes Sander Tordoir of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank.
事实上，欧洲改革中心智库的桑德·托多伊指出，在2022年各国政府为支持经济所花费的资金比在2007-2009年全球金融危机后还要多。
Later, with memories of the euro crisis fading, politicians spent big in an attempt to reduce burgeoning support for populist parties, at the same time as increasing expenditure on the green transition and their armed forces.
后来随着欧元危机记忆的消退，政客们进行了大额支出，试图消减迅速增长的对民粹主义政党的支持，同时也增加了对绿色过渡和军队的支出。
All countries have now submitted fiscal-consolidation plans to the European Commission.
现在所有国家都已向欧盟委员会提交了财政整顿计划。
The French one is ambitious, aiming to cut the deficit by 0.5 percentage points of GDP a year, enough to stabilise the debt level.
法国的计划雄心勃勃，目标是每年将赤字占GDP的比例降低0.5个百分点，这足以稳定债务水平。
At the moment, however, such a plan looks politically impossible.
然而目前这样的计划在政治上看起来是不可能的。
And the French government is not the only one coming to terms with its budgetary constraints.
而且法国政府并不是唯一一个向预算限制妥协的政府。
Germany’s recently collapsed, too, because of spending disputes.
德国政府最近也因为支出争端而崩溃了。
Italy will feel the strain in the next few years.
意大利在接下来的几年将感受到压力。
Jean-Fran?ois Robin of Natixis, a bank, expects French spreads over German bunds to come down over the next year, before spiking again ahead of parliamentary elections that are likely to be held in the summer.
法国外贸银行的让-弗朗索瓦·罗宾预计，法德国债利差将在明年缩小，然后在可能于夏季举行的议会选举前再次飙升。
The respite does not reflect the country’s economic outlook, but rather the fact that France benefits from being at the core of the euro zone, along with Germany.
这种暂缓并不反映法国的经济前景，而是反映了这样一个事实，即法国和德国同处于欧元区核心位置并从中受益。
Historically, this position has meant that France could borrow at close-to-German interest rates, while running much more expansionary fiscal policy, notes Davide Oneglia of TS Lombard, a consultancy.
咨询公司TS伦巴德的达维德·奥内利亚指出，在过去，这一位置意味着法国能以接近德国的利率借款，同时实施更具扩张性的财政政策。
Now it is preventing the country’s borrowing costs from really soaring.
现在，这一位置正在防止法国的借贷成本真正飙升。
Whether markets continue to offer such concessions depends on how politically unstable France becomes.
市场是否会继续提供这样的让步，取决于法国政治的不稳定程度。
There is no immediate threat of a financial crisis, banks remain strong and the European Central Bank (ECB) has made clear that it stands behind member countries’ debt, even if it has not said so explicitly.
目前并不存在金融危机立刻发生的威胁，银行依然强大，而且欧洲央行即使没有清楚说明，但也已经态度明确，它会为成员国的债务撑腰。
But unless France manages to show commitment to actually cutting its deficit, the ECB will struggle to step in and buy French bonds.
但除非法国设法表明将致力于切实削减赤字，否则欧洲央行将难以介入并购买法国国债。
Should French spreads continue to widen, the bank’s policymakers will be put in an awkward political position.
如果法国国债的利差继续扩大，那么欧洲央行的政策制定者将处于尴尬的政治地位。
They may need to prepare for more awkwardness, since France is just one of many countries struggling to make ends meet.
他们可能需要为更多的尴尬做好准备，因为法国只是艰难维持收支相抵的许多国家之一。
