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Finance & economics
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Greenbacks for Greenland
用美元买格陵兰岛
An American purchase of the territory could be the deal of the century.
美国购买格陵兰岛或将成为世纪交易。
Although America has a history of taking a commercial approach to international relations, purchases are rarely made without controversy.
虽然美国在处理国际关系时一贯采取商业手段，但美国的购买行为很少没有争议。
When Thomas Jefferson bought Louisiana in 1803, doubling the size of the country, he had to set aside his zest for constitutional constructivism, which would have ruled out such bold federal action.
托马斯·杰斐逊总统在1803年购买路易斯安那州，使美国的领土面积扩大了一倍，为此他不得不放弃对宪法建构主义的热情，因为宪法建构主义会排斥这种大胆的联邦行动。（注：宪法建构主义指通过理性来设计和构建宪法秩序，而非通过在实践经验中逐步完善宪法。）
Sixty-four years later, when William Seward, then secretary of state, purchased Alaska from Russia for $7.2m ($162m today), the move was dubbed “Seward’s folly”.
六十四年后，时任美国国务卿的威廉·苏厄德以720万美元（约合今天的1.62亿美元）从俄罗斯手中买下了阿拉斯加州，此举在当时被戏称为“苏厄德蠢事”。
Now the Alaska deal is seen as a masterstroke and the Louisiana purchase the greatest achievement of one of America’s greatest presidents.
现在阿拉斯加交易被视为神来之笔，而购买路易斯安那则成为美国最伟大的总统之一的最伟大成就。
In hindsight, both look extraordinarily good value.
事后看来，两桩交易买得都很值。
History will not be as kind to Donald Trump if he coerces Denmark to give up Greenland.
如果唐纳德·特朗普强迫丹麦放弃格陵兰岛，历史将不会给他这种厚待。
On January 7th the president-elect declined to rule out using military might or economic warfare in his pursuit of Greenland (and of the Panama Canal).
1月7日，这位当选总统拒绝排除用军事力量或经济战拿下格陵兰（和巴拿马运河）的可能性。
America will lose friends if it bullies one into ceding territory.
美国若逼迫一个友国割让领土，那么它将失去很多朋友。
But Mr Trump’s provocations are also foolish because an agreement to buy Greenland, made freely and in good will, could indeed be another deal of the century.
但是特朗普的挑衅也是愚蠢的，因为如果自由且友好地达成购买格陵兰岛的协议，那么这项购买确实可能成为又一桩世纪交易。
Such a deal would increase America’s security, and perhaps that of its NATO allies, too.
这样的协议将增强美国的安全，或许也会增强其北约盟国的安全。
Autocrats would be dispirited.
专制者们会感到沮丧。
And a purchase could also benefit the inhabitants of the island, who must—and surely would—have the final say.
而且购买该岛也可能使岛上的居民受益，居民必须——而且肯定会——拥有最终决定权。
What, then, is Greenland worth?
那么，格陵兰岛价值几何？
One starting point is the island’s annual GDP.
一个计算起点是该岛的年度国内生产总值。
At last count, in 2021, it was $3bn, or one seven-thousandth of America’s.
截至2021年的最后一次统计，年度GDP是30亿美元，是美国的七千分之一。
Only 56,000 people live in Greenland, despite the fact it is bigger than any American state.
格陵兰岛的面积比美国任何一个州都大，但岛上只有5.6万居民。
Much of the territory’s output is the work of the 43% of the labour force employed by the state (against 15% in America).
岛上的大部分产出是由国家雇佣的劳动力中的43%（美国为15%）完成的。
Over half the government’s bills are paid by Denmark, which gives the territory $500m a year.
超过一半的政府账单由丹麦支付，丹麦每年给格陵兰岛5亿美元。
The biggest industry is fishing.
最大的产业是渔业。
Removing the public sector, ignoring other spending commitments, assuming Greenland’s long-run growth continues and America’s federal government receives 16% of GDP in tax (the national average), as well as discounting using America’s 30-year Treasury yield, produces a valuation of $50bn, or a twentieth of America’s annual defence spending.
去掉公共部门，忽略其他支出承诺，假设格陵兰的长期增长持续下去，假设美国联邦政府获得格陵兰GDP的16%作为税收（全国平均税收水平），不考虑使用美国30年期国债收益，那么得出的格陵兰岛的估值为500亿美元，即美国年度国防支出的二十分之一。
Yet Mr Trump covets Greenland for its strategic and economic potential, rather than its puny output.
但特朗普仍觊觎格陵兰岛，因为其战略和经济潜力而不是微不足道的产出。
The island sits between America and Russia in a part of the world that is becoming more navigable as Arctic ice melts.
该岛位于美国和俄罗斯之间，随着北极冰层融化，这一地区变得更适合航行。
Although America’s Pituffik Space Base on the territory’s north-west coast already provides the armed forces with missile-warning sensors, an American Greenland might better monitor the Greenland-Iceland-UK (GIUK) gap, a strip of the Atlantic Ocean that is the access route for Russian submarines to America’s east coast, and to the North Atlantic.
虽然美国在格陵兰岛西北海岸的皮图菲克太空基地已经为美军提供了导弹预警传感器，但如果格陵兰岛属于美国，那么美国将能更好地监控格陵兰-冰岛-英国（GIUK）缺口，这片大西洋海域是俄罗斯潜艇进入美国东海岸和北大西洋的通道。
