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Finance & economics
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Live music
现场音乐
Mo’ problems, mo’ money
问题越多，钱越多（注：标题来自一首说唱歌曲的歌名。）
Concerts seem to be impervious to economic downturns. Why?
演唱会似乎不受经济下行的影响，为什么？
The mood music on Wall Street is downbeat, as America’s government throttles trade and consumers seem poised to trim spending.
华尔街的气氛音乐是低沉的，因为美国政府正在收紧贸易，消费者也准备削减开支。
Yet one corner of the entertainment industry is partying on regardless.
然而在娱乐业的一个角落里，派对依然继续进行。
Live Nation, a concert promoter, has said it expects the live-music industry to break records in 2025.
演唱会推广公司“现场之国”表示，预计现场音乐产业将在2025年打破纪录。
Its Ticketmaster app had 70% more traffic this February than last, reckons Sensor Tower, a data firm.
数据公司“传感灯塔”估计，今年2月，现场之国旗下的“票务大师”应用程序的流量比去年增加了70%。
This party may yet fizzle out.
这场派对最终可能还是会散场。
But the music business has a record of performing well during downturns.
但音乐行业在经济低迷时期一直表现良好。
Although concerts were clobbered by covid-19 lockdowns in 2020-21, during America’s previous three recessions live entertainment held up even as spending on other forms of fun dipped, according to Goldman Sachs, a bank.
虽然在2020至2021年期间，新冠疫情封锁对演唱会造成了重创，但根据高盛银行的数据，在美国之前三次经济衰退中，现场娱乐活动依然坚挺，而其他形式的娱乐消费却有所下滑。
Timing is one reason: concert-goers may book tickets months in advance, so the impact of belt-tightening is delayed.
时机是一个原因：演唱会观众可能会提前几个月预订门票，因此收紧钱包的影响会有所延迟。
Another is that the average big-name gig in America is still cheaper than a night out on Broadway or at the National Football League, meaning that concerts are not the first treats to be forgone in a crunch (they may even serve as cheaper substitutes).
另一个原因是，在美国，大明星演唱会的平均票价仍然比百老汇戏剧或国家橄榄球联盟比赛的门票更便宜，这意味着在财务紧张时，演唱会并不是首先被砍掉的娱乐（甚至可能成为更便宜的替代选择）。
The globalisation of music fandom also protects touring artists from downturns.
歌迷的全球化也让巡演的歌手免受经济低迷的影响。
If demand falters in Johannesburg, add a date in Jakarta.
如果南非的约翰内斯堡的需求疲软，那就在印度尼西亚的雅加达再加一场。
The most improbable saviours of live music in recessions are a group more often cast as villains: ticket touts.
在经济衰退时，拯救现场音乐的最出人意料的英雄是一群常被视为反派的人：卖票的黄牛。
Concerts are deliberately underpriced, to ensure that true fans—young and hip but penniless—make it into the audience alongside rich oldies and corporate-hospitality bores.
演唱会的票价故意定得很低，这是为了确保真正的粉丝——年轻、时尚但没有钱——能够与富有的老人和无聊的企业客户一起进入观众席。
Scalpers take advantage by buying tickets early, then reselling them at the true market-clearing price.
黄牛提前购票，然后以真正的市场出清价格把票转卖，利用差价牟利。（注：市场出清价指需求和供给相等时的价格。）
In booms they prosper: in 2019, just before the pandemic, Live Nation said that the average uplift in ticket prices on the secondary market in America was 70%, providing touts with a profit of $1.3bn (more than Live Nation’s own operating profit that year).
在经济繁荣时期，黄牛生意兴隆：就在疫情暴发前的2019年，现场之国表示，美国二级市场的门票价格平均上涨了70%，这为黄牛提供了13亿美元的利润（超过了现场之国当年的营业利润）。
But when demand softens, touts feel it first.
但当需求减弱时，黄牛也能最先感受到。
Their billion-dollar profit pool in effect shields the primary market from declines in consumer spending, argue Stephen Laszczyk and Antares Tobelem of Goldman Sachs.
高盛的斯蒂芬·拉斯奇克和安塔雷斯·托贝伦认为，黄牛的数十亿美元利润池实际上保护了一级市场，使其免受消费者支出下降的影响。
“In the event of a recession, we would expect that the secondary market would absorb most of the pressure on marginal demand, insulating the underlying profitability of the live-music industry,” they predict.
“如果经济衰退，我们预计二级市场将吸收边际需求的大部分压力，从而保护现场音乐行业的基本盈利能力。”他们预测。（注：边际需求指价格变化时，需求增加或减少的值。）
If the direst forecasts for America’s economy come true, fans may not be willing to pay as much to see bands like Oasis, whose comeback tour begins in July.
如果对美国经济最悲观的预测成真，那么歌迷们可能不愿意花那么多钱去看绿洲等乐队的演出（绿洲乐队的复出巡演将于七月开始）。
Yet with tickets already sold out in the primary market, the Gallagher brothers have no need to worry.
但是绿洲的一级市场门票已经售罄，所以加拉格兄弟（乐队的两位主唱）无需担忧。
It is those trying to make a buck in the secondary market who will have to roll with it.
而那些试图在二级市场赚钱的人，则不得不应付这种情况。（注：roll with it也是绿洲的一首歌名。）
