Where extraterrestrial civilizations may be rare, there is something that is seemingly rarer still: A girlfriend. What might the approach employed in the estimation of the number of alien civilizations tell us about the number of potential girlfriends for me? A somewhat less scientific question, I admit, but one of substantial importance.
虽说外星生命及其稀少,但还是有一种生命比它更稀少:女朋友。这个能估量外星文明的公式该怎么用来估量我的潜在女友呢?我承认这是件不怎么科学的测试,但对我来说有着相当大的重要性。
The parameters are redefined as follows:
这样的话,参数就要重新设置一下
N= The number of potential girlfriends
潜在女友的数量
R* = The rate of formation of people in the UK(i.e.population growth)
英国的人口增长率
Ep = The fraction of people in the UK who are women
女性在总人口中所占比率
Ne = The fraction of women in the UK who live in London
居住在伦敦的女性在所有女性中的比率
Fe = The fraction of women in London who are age-appropriate
年龄合适的女性在其中所占的比率
Fi = The fraction of age=appropriate women in London with a university education
年龄合适并有大学文凭的女性在其中所占比率
Fc = The fraction of age-appropriate, university-educated women in London who I find physically attractive
年龄合适、有大学文凭、我觉得长得好看的女性人数所占比率
L = The length of time in years that I have been alive thus making an encounter with a potential girlfriend possible
我能遇见一个这样的女孩所需要的时间
If we plug in the above values we get: N=10,510
将以上所有的值相乘,我们得到的答案是:10,510
What this means is that on a given night there is greater than a 1 in 1000 chance that I will meet an attractive woman between the age of 24 and 34 with a university degree. Of course I have to take into account the fraction of women who will find me attractive, the fraction of women who will be single and the fraction of women who I will get along with. Including such factors would greatly reduce the above figure of 10,510. So the chance is 1 in 258,000, about 100 times better than finding an alien civilization. Still not bad.
这意味着,某一天晚上出去,我遇上一个24岁到34岁之间、大学毕业的理想女孩的概率大于千分之一。当然我还得考虑加进觉得我长得好看的女孩的比率、单身女性的比率、我能与其相处甚欢的女性人数所占比率。加进这些因素后,概率会大大降低,变成258,000分之一,比起找到外星文明的概率高了100倍,还不坏。