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Investors for years have been searching in vain for a formula to replicate Warren Buffett's legendary returns over the past 50 years.
多年来，投资者一直在寻找一套公式，以图复制沃伦・巴菲特(Warren Buffett)50年取得的神奇回报，但都徒劳无功。
The wait could be over.
或许不必再找了。
A new study that claims to have uncovered this formula was published last month by the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Mass. Its authors, all of whom have strong academic credentials, work for AQR Capital Management, a firm that manages several hedge funds and other investment offerings and has $90 billion in assets.
马萨诸塞州坎布里奇国家经济研究局(National Bureau of Economic Research)11月份发表一项新研究成果，声称找到了这套公式。论文作者都有深厚的学术资历，他们供职的AQR资产管理公司（AQR Capital Management）管理着多只对冲基金和其他一些投资产品，资产规模达900亿美元。
The study's authors analyzed Mr. Buffett's record since he acquired Berkshire Hathaway in 1964. Their formula, which has more than a dozen individual components, comes in two major parts.
论文作者分析了巴菲特从1964年收购伯克希尔・哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway)以来的投资成绩。他们的公式含有十多个单项，可以归纳为两个主要部分。
The first is a 'focus on cheap, safe, quality stocks,' defined as those that have exhibited below-average volatility and sport low ratios of price-to-book value -- a measure of net worth. In addition, the researchers looked for stocks whose profits are growing at an above-average pace and that pay out a significant portion of their earnings as dividends.
第一部分是“专注于便宜、安全、优质的股票”，即波动性低于平均水平、股价与每股账面价值之比（市净率，一种净值衡量指标）不高的股票。除此以外，研究人员还看好利润增长高于平均速度、相当大一部分利润当作股息派发出去的股票。
The second part of the formula will raise eyebrows: It calls for investing in these stocks 'on margin' -- that is, borrowing money to buy more shares than could otherwise be purchased. To match Mr. Buffett's long-term return, the researchers found, a portfolio would need to be 60% on margin -- borrowing enough so that it owned $160 of 'cheap, safe, quality stocks' for every $100 of portfolio value.
公式的第二部分将会令人错愕：它要求用“保证金交易”来投资这些股票，也就是借钱买股，买进的数量比不借钱能够买到的更多。研究人员发现，要达到巴菲特那样的长期回报，投资组合需要有60%的借入比例，也就是说，借款比例足以让每100美元的投资组合持有160美元“便宜、安全、优质的股票”。
Andrea Frazzini, one of the study's authors, a finance professor at New York University and a vice president at AQR, said the Berkshire portfolio has, on average, been leveraged to a similar extent through Mr. Buffett's career.
论文作者之一、纽约大学(New York University)金融学教授、AQR公司副总裁安德烈亚・弗拉奇尼 (Andrea Frazzini)说，在巴菲特整个职业生涯中，伯克希尔投资组合的平均杠杆率一直与上述水平相当。
It can be easy to overlook the extent of this leverage, since Mr. Buffett is able to borrow from other parts of his business. But that doesn't mean the company isn't still leveraged, Mr. Frazzini argues. According to its most recent annual report, for example, the total value of Berkshire's holdings are double the company's net worth, implying that its current leverage is about 2-to-1 -- somewhat higher than its long-term average.
这样的杠杆率很容易被忽略，因为巴菲特可以从他公司的其他部门借款。但弗拉奇尼说，这并不意味着该公司就没有杠杆了。比如从最近年报来看，伯克希尔的持股总值是其净值的两倍，说明它当前的杠杆率约为2比1──比它的长期平均水平还要高一些。
Employing margin can magnify profits, of course. It also increases potential losses when things go wrong. But note that the formula combines a heavy use of margin with stocks that tend to be much less risky than the market, so the net result can still be a portfolio that is no riskier than the market as a whole.
采用保证金交易当然可以放大利润。当行情不妙的时候，它也会增加潜在损失。但请注意，前面说的那套公式是将保证金交易的大量使用同风险远低于市场的股票结合，所以综合来看的话，投资组合的风险仍然可以不高于大市。
To be sure, a heavily margined portfolio will always run the risk of getting a 'margin call' -- the need to come up with additional cash -- if its holdings fall too far. Berkshire Hathaway has been able to sidestep that risk over the last 50 years. Despite a heavily reliance on leverage, its worst return in any calendar year was a loss of 9.6%. And its book value has been less volatile than the S&P 500. Volatility is a common measure of a portfolio's risk.
无可否认的是，大量使用保证金交易的投资组合始终存在收到“追加保证金通知”的风险──如果所持资产跌幅太大，那么就要存入更多的现金。伯克希尔・哈撒韦在过去50年里一直能够避开这种风险。虽然严重依赖于杠杆，其自然年度最差的回报率也就是亏损9.6%。而且其账面价值的波动性也低于标准普尔500种股票指数(S&P 500)。波动性是衡量投资组合风险的一个常用指标。
One factor that is conspicuous in its absence from the formula is anything to account for Mr. Buffett's significant investments in privately owned companies. But that isn't necessary, according to the researchers, because the public companies in which he has invested have outperformed the private ones.
公式中明显缺失的一个因素，是它没有解释巴菲特为什么大量投资非上市公司。但研究人员说，这没有必要，因为他所投上市公司的表现好于非上市公司。
This is somewhat surprising, given that Mr. Buffett has often trumpeted his abilities to pick good managers. Yet the researchers nevertheless find that his 'returns are more due to stock selection than to his effect on management.' (A Berkshire Hathaway spokeswoman said that Mr. Buffett declined to be interviewed.)
考虑到巴菲特常常鼓吹他挑选优秀管理人员的能力，这一点多少让人吃惊。但研究人员还是发现，其回报“更多地源于选股，而非他对管理层的影响”。（伯克希尔・哈撒韦发言人表示巴菲特不接受采访。）
Lasse Pedersen, another of the study's authors, a finance professor at New York University and a principal at AQR, stressed that Mr. Buffett still deserves plenty of credit. After all, he says, it has taken years for researchers to come up with a formula that, after the fact, does as well as Mr. Buffett has been doing for nearly 50 years. In addition, he had the discipline to stick to his approach through both thick and thin.
论文的另一名作者、纽约大学金融学教授、AQR主要负责人之一拉斯・佩德森(Lasse Pedersen)强调，巴菲特并非浪得虚名。他说，毕竟研究人员花了数年时间才总结出一套“马后炮”表现与巴菲特近50年投资成绩相当的公式。除此以外，他还拥有不论丰歉都坚守既定方针的自控力。
Unfortunately, the investment formula that the researchers devised isn't necessarily easy for individual investors to follow. It requires investing in a large and diversified basket of stocks, for example. Furthermore, adhering to the formula can be challenging for a portfolio that relies on margin.
不幸的是，研究人员总结出来的这套投资公式散户应用起来不一定容易。比如它要求投资一大篮子多样化的股票。另外，对于一个依靠保证金交易的投资组合来说，坚守这套公式也有可能遇到挑战。
Nevertheless, it may be possible for you to at least partially follow the researchers' formula without actually resorting to borrowed money. If you have cash in your portfolio, for example, you could add it to the portion you already have allocated to equities-achieving the equivalent of going on margin by, in effect, 'borrowing' from yourself. This, of course, is what Mr. Buffett does by borrowing from other parts of his business.
但是，你或许还是能够在不借钱的情况下至少部分地运用研究人员总结出的这套公式。比如，如果你的投资组合里面有现金，你可以把这些现金加到已经配置于股市的那部分中去。这在事实上是自己给自己借钱，也就相当于做保证金交易。巴菲特从他公司的其他部门借钱，当然也就是这种办法。
Even if you decide not to follow the researchers' investment formula precisely, this new study has important investment implications. For example, since the study's authors find that Mr. Buffett's record is due to 'neither luck nor magic,' Berkshire's performance need not suffer after Mr. Buffett retires -- so long as his successor is able to do just as good a job picking stocks.
即使你决定不完全按照研究人员的投资公式去做，这项新研究也有着重要的投资含义。比如论文作者发现巴菲特的成绩“既不是因为运气，也不是因为魔力”，所以如果继任者的选股能力跟他一样好，伯克希尔在巴菲特退休之后的表现就不一定很差。
That's a pretty big 'if,' of course, but the researchers' findings imply that a strict adherence to the same investment principles could, over time, do as well as Mr. Buffett has done historically.
当然这个“如果”是个很大的假设，但研究人员的发现意味着，如果严格遵守同样投资原则的话，随着时间的推移，投资成绩是可以达到巴菲特的历史水平的。
The study also holds out the tantalizing possibility that an investor following the formula can perform even better than Berkshire. That's because, as Mr. Buffett has pointed out, his portfolio has grown so large that it will be difficult for it to perform as well in the future. In contrast, a smaller portfolio can profit from investing in stocks that are too small to make any meaningful difference to Berkshire's bottom line.
另外，这项研究也展示了一种撩拨人心的可能性：遵守这套公式的投资者甚至可以取得比伯克希尔还要好的成绩。因为巴菲特自己也说过，他的投资组合已经变得十分庞大，将来会很难拥有同样的表现。相比之下，规模更小的投资组合可以投资于因为太小、不足以给伯克希尔利润表现带来实质性改变的股票，从而获利。
The following stocks from within the S&P 1500 index score favorably along each of the five dimensions that the researchers employ in defining 'cheap, safe, quality stocks,' according to FactSet. The ratios of their prices to per-share book values are below average, as are their 'betas' -- a measure of the extent to which their prices move in lock step with the overall market.
据FactSet说，以下取自标准普尔1500种股票指数(S&P 1500)的股票非常符合研究人员在定义“便宜、安全、优质股票”时确定的五个维度。它们的价格相对于每股账面价值的比率低于平均水平，衡量股价与大市联动程度的“beta系数”也低于平均水平。
In addition, these stocks are of companies whose 'profitability' -- or total profits as a percentage of assets -- is above average, as is the five-year growth rate of that profitability. And, finally, these stocks are of firms whose dividends represent an above-average proportion of their earnings.
除此以外，这些股票代表的公司“盈利能力”（总利润除以资产总额）高于平均水平，“盈利能力”五年增长率也高于平均水平。最后，这些股票所代表公司的派息额占其利润的比重也高于平均水平。
Examples include drug retailer CVS Caremark; Devry Education Group, a for-profit education company; chipmaker Intel, Owens & Minor, a medical-supplies distributor; grocery distributor Spartan Stores; and Vectren, an energy holding company.
这些股票包括：药品零售企业CVS Caremark；营利性教育企业Devry Education Group；芯片制造企业英特尔(Intel)；医药用品经销商Owens & Minor；百货经销企业Spartan Stores；能源控股公司Vectren。
Though there are no mutual funds that pick stocks according to the precise formula the researchers devise, several come close. One is offered by AQR: the U.S. Defensive Equity Fund, with an annual 0.51% expense ratio, or $51 for every $10,000 invested. Though the fund has a high minimum for those investing in it directly, it is available to investors through their financial advisers.
虽然没有哪只共同基金是完全根据研究人员总结的公式来选股，但也有好几只比较接近。有一只是AQR销售的“防守型美股基金”(U.S. Defensive Equity Fund)，年费率0.51%，即投资1万美元要交51美元的费用。这只基金为直接投资的人设定了一个很高的最低额度，但投资者可以通过他们的投资顾问机构来投资。
Another fund that focuses on some of the same stock-picking methods is the DFA US Large Cap Equity Portfolio. It is available to individuals only through their financial advisers or certain retirement and 529 plans, and fees vary.
另一只侧重于上述一部分选股方法的基金是“DFA大盘美股投资组合”(DFA US Large Cap Equity Portfolio)。散户只能通过投资顾问机构或某些退休金计划、529大学储蓄计划来投资，费率各有差别。
The exchange-traded fund that perhaps come closest to following the researchers' stock-picking methodology is iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor, with an expense ratio of 0.15%. It invests in stocks with a high return on equity and stable earnings growth.
最接近研究人员选股方法的交易所交易基金，可能是“iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor”。费率为0.15%。它投资的是净资产收益率高、利润增长稳定的股票。
