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For a Chinese solar-equipment maker to default may seem like a rare sign of consolidation in an overcrowded sector. Yet don't expect new light to shine on this industry.
中国光伏设备制造商上海超日太阳能科技股份有限公司(Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science & Technology Co. 简称：超日太阳)出现债务违约，这可能是产能过剩的中国光伏产业将进行整合的一个少见的信号。但先不要期待中国光伏产业会东山再起。
Shanghai Chaori Solar has become the first company of any stripe to default in China's domestic bond market. That it was a solar company underscores Beijing's desire to instill some market discipline in a bloated sector fueled by local government-funded companies who have kept making panels despite plummeting prices in recent years. Chaori's default comes after rival Suntech failed. Investors are now turning to another panel-maker, Baoding Tianwei, which this week reported a second year of losses, to see if officials will let it fail.
超日太阳成为中国国内债券市场上第一家违约的公司。第一家发生债券违约的是光伏企业，这说明中国政府很想把市场约束机制引入到过度膨胀的光伏产业中。导致该产业过度臃肿的是那些由地方政府资助、不顾近年来的价格下跌持续生产光伏面板的公司。超日太阳债务违约是在其竞争对手尚德太阳能(Suntech)破产之后发生的。现在投资者关注点转向另外一家面板制造商保定天威保变电气股份有限公司(Baoding Tianwei Baobian Electric Co., 600550.SH, 简称：天威保变)，该公司本周公布连续第二年出现亏损。投资者想看看中国官方是否会让这家公司破产。
This consolidation is partly why panel prices stabilized last year, says CLSA's Charles Yonts. Higher demand also helped, as China alone doubled its purchases of panels.
里昂证券（亚洲）(CLSA)的Charles Yonts表示，这种行业整合就是去年光伏面板价格企稳的一个原因。需求上升也起到了一定作用，仅中国的面板采购量就增加了一倍。
The problem is prices may not rebound. Manufacturers are investing again, with leading panel-makers planning to increase supply by roughly 30% this year, according to NPD Solarbuzz. Global panel-making capacity should be roughly 60 gigawatts in 2014, more than two-thirds in China, the European Photovoltaic Industry Association forecast last year.
但问题是价格可能不会反弹。制造商们又在投入资金，NPD Solarbuzz的数据显示，主要面板制造商计划今年增加30%左右的供应。欧洲光伏产业协会(European Photovoltaic Industry Association)去年预计，2014年全球光伏面板制造产能将达到大约60千兆瓦，其中超过三分之二的产能都在中国。
That's still too much, considering the world's demand for new solar-generated power may just be 45 gigawatts in 2014, says Nomura. China now accounts for 30% of global demand, according to Mr. Yonts--and it doesn't help that starting in January, the government cut by 10% the above-market price it pays utility-size solar farms in the provinces that previously bought most of the panels.
野村(Nomura)认为这个产能还是太大了，因为2014年全球的太阳能电力需求可能仅为45千兆瓦。Yonts称，目前中国占全球需求的30%。尽管从1月起，在之前光伏面板采购量最大的省份，成规模太阳能电场高于市场水平的上网电价将下调10%，但这也起不了太大作用。
These farms are far from the regions that need power and burden the transmission network. China is instead offering incentives to build roof-top installations, except that's easier planned than done. It's tough to secure ownership rights to rooftops or arrange financing, says Frank Haugwitz, an independent solar energy consultant.
这些电场远离需要电力供应的地区，承担着输电网络的负担。中国转而为屋顶太阳能提供激励措施，但说起来容易做起来难。独立太阳能咨询公司Frank Haugwitz表示，很难确定屋顶的所有权，也不好安排融资。
Other big markets aren't looking promising either. Germany is cutting subsidies and Japan may follow suit, while the U.S. has set up trade barriers against China.
其他一些较大的市场化似乎也不乐观。德国正在削减补贴，日本可能也会紧随其后，而美国则针对中国设置了贸易壁垒。
That could explain why panel prices are down 4.4% since November, according to PVinsights. This bodes ill for China's panel survivors who should otherwise benefit from their competitors going under. Trina Solar and Jinko Solar, who just started returning to profitability after many quarters of losses, are among the biggest panel players.
PVinsights认为，这就是为何面板价格自去年11月以来累计下跌4.4%的原因。这对中国幸存的面板制造商来说不是什么好兆头。如果价格不跌，这些公司本可以因竞争对手的破产而受益。天合光能有限公司(Trina Solar Ltd. ADS, TSL)和晶科能源(Jinko Solar)都在规模最大的太阳能面板企业之列。后者在经过多个季度的亏损之后刚刚恢复赢利。
Consolidation will only continue if Beijing can force local governments to cut production--and give up the jobs that go with it. That's a tough sell as China's economic growth weakens.
只有在中央政府迫使地方政府削减产能，并放弃该行业的一些就业的条件下，太阳能产业的整合才能继续。随着中国经济增长的放缓，这很难让人接受。
