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Washington (CNN) -- Faced with the prospective divorce of its closest friend, the United States is following the advice column carefully: don't take sides, keep your opinions to yourself, and avoid getting dragged into the fray.
华盛顿（CNN）——美国在其最亲密盟友面临“婚姻”危机时，谨言慎行地采纳了建议专栏的看法：别公开偏向任何一方，自己知道就好，不要卷入这场争端。
The complicating factor in this potential split? One side has a nuclear arsenal. Who gets custody of that?
那么这次可能出现的分裂中有哪些复杂的因素？举个例子，其中一方有核军火库。分家之后谁来接管？
Thursday's independence referendum in Scotland, and with it the possible split of the 300-year-old United Kingdom, could have consequences big and small, including in the United States. The "special relationship" heralded by presidents and prime ministers for decades would be fundamentally altered, though American officials refuse to speculate in which ways.
在周四进行的苏格兰独立公投，可能导致英国长达300年的历史一朝分裂，同时也可能带来一系列大大小小的后果，美国也会受其影响。数十年来由美国总统和英国首相构成的“特殊关系”也许将会彻底改变，尽管美国官员拒绝作此推测。
As British Prime Minister David Cameron said on Tuesday, a "yes" result on independence would amount to a "painful divorce" between Scotland and the rest of Great Britain, not a "trial separation."
如英国首相卡梅伦周二时所说，若结果是“成功独立”，将造成苏格兰和大不列颠其它各部分“痛苦的离婚”，而这场离婚显然不是“暂时分居（注：以决定是否正式离婚）”。
That prospect has elicited only a few sentences of official U.S. reaction. President Barack Obama said in June the U.K. had been an "extraordinary partner" to the United States and had done well for itself as a combined entity.
而美国官员对此后果只作出了零星点评。总统奥巴马在六月时称英国是美国“绝佳的伙伴”，尤其是在英国作为一个整体的时候。
"We obviously have a deep interest in making sure that one of the closest allies that we will ever have remains strong, robust, united, and an effective partner," Obama said then. "But ultimately these are decisions that are to be made by the folks there."
“我们当然十分希望这个非凡的盟友能继续强大、团结下去，继续成为一个有效的伙伴。”奥巴马当时这样表示。“不过总的来说，这件事还是应该由那里的民众来作出决定。”
Those few words -- with the emphasis on "united" -- have been repeated by officials in Washington as the formal U.S. stance without any further explanation. But there's little doubt the U.S. government, from Obama on down, wants to see Scotland remain where it is.
这寥寥几句话——其中强调了“作为整体”一词——已在随后被白宫官员援引，作为美国对此事正式而不做改变的立场。不过毫无疑问，美国政府，从奥巴马到各级官员，都希望苏格兰留在原有的位置。
"It would just be rude to comment on the internal deliberations of a democratic country," explained Jeremy Shapiro, a former State Department official who is now a fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington. "Of course the United States has an opinion. I think they recognize, however, that stating that opinion is not always even very helpful to promoting it."
“对这样一个民主国家的内部意见进行评论是一件很无礼的事。”前美国国务院官员、现就职于布鲁斯金研究院（注：美国两大智库之一）的杰瑞米·夏皮罗解释道。“当然美国还是有自己的看法，只不过他们应该意识到，说出自己的看法并不见得能帮上忙。”
Rules of diplomacy aside, U.S. officials are eyeing the referendum vote carefully two days before Scots head to the polls. Here are a few ways the United States could be affected by a "yes" vote.
尽管要遵守外交原则，美国官员们在苏格兰人进行公投两天前就盯着事态发展。以下为您整理的是“成功独立”将为美国带来哪些方面的影响。
National security
国家安全
It's only been two weeks since Obama and Cameron hailed a reinvigorated NATO alliance from a golf course in Wales. Should Scotland vote to go it alone, expect fresh questions about NATO's ability to counter Russia in Eastern Europe.
奥巴马和卡梅伦在威尔士打了一场高尔夫，谈妥北约联盟才过了两周。如果苏格兰成功脱离英国，北约对抗东欧俄罗斯的实力就会冒出许多新问题。
All of Britain's nuclear weapons -- its only contribution to a Western nuclear deterrent -- are housed at the Royal Navy's base on Scotland's West Coast. A "yes" vote would throw into question the future of the Trident nuclear program, which consists of four Vanguard-class submarines armed with ballistic missiles on lease from the United States
英国所有的核武器——这是他对西方国家核威慑的唯一贡献——都存放在苏格兰西海岸的皇家海军基地。“成功独立”后，将引发三叉戟核导弹系统的归属问题，其中包括美国租借出的四艘装载弹道导弹的一流潜水艇。
The main pro-independence party says it opposes nuclear weapons, vowing to remove and ban them in a future Scottish state. Where the weapons would go remains an open question.
赞成独立的人称他们反对核武器，誓言要将其从苏格兰国土上驱逐并禁止。而这些核武器归属何方尚不知晓。
Also in dispute: an independent Scotland's ability -- and willingness -- to contribute to Western military coalitions, which have become ever-more visible as the U.S. rallies support behind its efforts against Russia and ISIS terrorists in Iraq and Syria.
另一个争议点是：苏格兰独立后的能力——和意愿——是否愿意为西方军事联盟出力。这一点在美国集合各方支持，对抗俄罗斯和伊拉克以及叙利亚的ISIS（注：伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国）恐怖分子后愈发明显。
NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen said this week that Scotland would have to reapply to join the group like any other country and gain approval from each of the 28 member states -- a tough-to-imagine prospect in a period when the appetite for expansion within NATO remains low.
北约秘书长安诺斯·福格·拉斯穆森本周表示，苏格兰可能需要向其它国家一样在加入任何组织前重新申请，并需要取得所有28个国家的同意——要加入已经不太想添加新成员的北约，这简直是个无法想象的难题。
In rejoining the alliance Scotland would need to commit to spending 2% of its gross domestic product on defense spending, which given the uncertain economic outcome of an independence vote appears unachievable.
要重新加入北约，苏格兰至少要花费国内生产总值的2%用于国防开销，这对于独立后未知的经济情况而言显然无法达到。
"This is less about the nuclear deterrent than about demonstrating weakness and disunity at a critical point in NATO's history in the face of a sort of newly resurgent threat from Russia," Shapiro said. "The whole idea of one of its key members breaking up...doesn't really appeal to the United States at this critical moment in dealing with Russia."
“这并不全和核威慑有关，更多的是北约在面对俄罗斯新一轮危机时示弱和不团结的表现。”夏皮罗表示。“对于北约成员国之一在这种时候闹分裂……美国忙于应对俄罗斯，显然不乐于看到它发生。”
Economy
经济
The uncertainty surrounding the economy of an independent Scotland could wind up costing Americans, who enjoy a close-knit trade relationship with Britain and the larger European Union.
一个独立的苏格兰所面临的经济不确定性将使美国人花费更多，他们一直和英国及其他欧洲大国保持着紧密的贸易往来。
A main sticking point in the referendum campaign remains which currency a Scottish state could use -- be it the pound, Euro, or something new. Banks based in Scotland have said they'll decamp to London if the "yes" votes prevail, and an already-shaky European financial recovery could be quickly halted.
这次公投运动的症结之一就是：苏格兰应该用哪种货币——英镑、欧元、还是新发明一种。总部设在苏格兰的几家银行称，如果公投结果是独立，他们将逃到伦敦去，这样本就风雨飘摇的欧债复苏期就能迅速缓解了。
"If Scotland votes for independence, expect significant turmoil not just in the City, but on Wall Street as well," Niles Gardiner, a former aide to the late British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, wrote in the Telegraph last week. "Fears over the economic fallout from Scotland breaking off from the UK will spook US markets, frighten investors, and add to an air of uncertainty exacerbated in recent months by Russia's invasion of Ukraine."
“如果苏格兰公投结果为独立，可以想见不仅在伦敦商业区，华尔街也会发生巨大的动荡，”前英国首相撒切尔夫人的顾问尼尔·加里纳上周在《每日电讯报》发文写道。“苏格兰从英国独立后可能带来的巨大经济风险把美国市场和投资者们吓得不轻，俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后，苏格兰独立更加重了不确定氛围。”
Perhaps the greatest fear for the United States is that a successful independence movement in Scotland could spark further movements in the rest of Europe. Potential breakaway regions in Spain and Belgium are already eyeing the Scottish vote carefully.
也许对于美国来说最大的恐慌就是苏格兰一旦独立，将会星火燎原，引发欧洲其他地区举行更多运动。西班牙和比利时的潜在寻求分裂地区已经密切关注苏格兰此次投票了。
Those regions, like Scotland, would face questions about what currency they'd use and how their economies would be structured, driving the EU -- a major U.S. trade partner -- into further uncertainty and economic turmoil.
这些地区将面临和苏格兰同样的问题，应该使用哪种货币以及国内经济如何架构，这也使欧盟——这个美国首要的贸易伙伴——走向迷雾重重和动荡的经济未来。
