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Few would give the Bank of England top marks for being ahead of events when the credit crunch began. Having been slow to respond to one global disaster, it is determined not to be caught flat-footed in another. To this end its Prudential Regulation Authority has written to 30 large insurers to probe the robustness of their business models in the face of extreme weather.
信贷危机发生时，英国央行(Bank of England)对事态作出的反应不是十分令人满意。在一场全球性灾难中反应迟钝的它，决心不能再毫无准备地面对另一场全球性灾难。为此，该行旗下的审慎监管局(Prudential Regulation Authority)致函30家大型保险公司，想探知在遭遇极端天气时它们商业模式的稳健性。
Insurance companies may well feel like rolling their eyeballs at being prodded in this way. They were at the sharp end when events like Typhoon Haiyan or Hurricane Katrina caused a huge increase in insurance claims.
面对这种鞭策，保险公司很可能会想报以白眼。在像台风“海燕”或飓风卡特里娜(Katrina)这样的事件导致保险索赔大幅增加时，保险公司是有切身体会的。
In 2012, weather-related disasters cost about $150bn, of which over a third was insured. People who only see the sunny side of life seldom rise far in the insurance industry. With exposures lasting decades, most insurance CEOs will claim to have thought deeply about the risks posed by extreme weather to their business.
2012年，与天气有关的灾害造成约1500亿美元损失，其中三分之一以上有保险。只看到生活中阳光一面的人在保险业很少能够高升。考虑到这方面的敞口已经存在了数十年，大多数保险公司的首席执行官都会声称，他们已深思熟虑过极端天气对其业务构成的风险。
Yet there are good reasons for the Bank of England to turn up the volume. The main one is the tussle between regulator and industry over the levels of capital needed to insure certain risks. Anything related to climate needs to be examined regularly. UK rules demand that insurers have enough capital on hand to withstand the sort of shock that only happens every 200 years. This is a high bar, but appropriate given that global temperatures may within decades hit levels not seen since the prehistoric era.
不过，英国央行有充分理由提高调门。最主要的理由是，监管机构和保险业之间围绕某些险种所需的资本金水平有争执。一切与气候有关的保险都需定期接受审查。英国的规定要求，保险公司必须持有足够的资本金，以承受那种200年一遇的冲击。这是个很高的要求，但考虑到全球气温可能会在几十年内创下自史前时代以来未见的高点，这个要求是恰当的。
Moreover, the methods used to evaluate climate change risk are likely to be highly idiosyncratic, which provides another good reason for the Bank’s interference. The manner in which global warming may be influencing the weather is difficult to ascertain, potentially covering events from floods and hurricanes to droughts and loss of biodiversity. Evaluating future risks will require even more guesswork. While markets are meant to incorporate a variety of opinions, high regulatory standards are needed to stop a casual attitude to climate change becoming a competitive advantage.
此外，用来评估气候变化风险的方法很可能是非常特殊的，这为英国央行的干预提供了另一个不错的理由。难以确定全球变暖正在以何种方式影响天气，洪水、飓风、干旱、生物多样性丧失等可能都是其体现。评估未来的风险将需要做更多的猜测。虽然市场应当包容各种观点，但为了防止对气候变化漠不关心的态度变成一种竞争优势，制定较高的监管标准是有必要的。
Higher capital requirements come at a cost. Either premiums must rise or some markets are rendered unviable. Already the insurance companies blame tough regulation for limiting their ability to invest in more growth-enhancing areas of the economy.
提高资本金要求是有代价的。要么必须提高保费，要么某些市场会难以为继。保险公司已经在责怪严苛的监管抑制了它们投资经济中更促增长领域的能力。
Any regulatory change that would leave swaths of coastal property uninsurable brings excruciating political dilemmas. When once-secure dwellings become at risk of subsidence and flooding, the government faces an awkward choice: between building better defences, abandoning householders to a loss of affordable insurance or subsidising cover that is not economic on its own terms. Sometimes abandonment will be the right answer; it makes no sense to put down bricks and mortar that will be regularly submerged in floodwater.
任何会导致大批沿海房产丧失投保资格的监管改革，都会造成极为痛苦的政治困境。当曾经安全的住所面临下沉和洪水风险时，政府就面对一个尴尬的选择：是改善防御措施，是坐视住户买不起保险，还是向这类本质上并不划算的保险提供补贴？有时候，放弃才是正确的答案；向那些经常会被洪水淹没的房产上投钱毫无意义。
Insurance will play a key part in the response to global warming. First, it must support the activities needed to adjust to and mitigate the effects of climate change. But it should also send clear signals about what will not be insurable, and where state support may be required.
保险业将在应对全球变暖上发挥关键作用。首先，它必须支持为适应和缓解气候变化影响所需采取的行动。但它同时也应明确说明，什么将是不能保的，以及哪一块可能需要国家的支持。
After the heaviest rainfall in a century, this year’s squabbles between industry and government about how to keep Britain’s coastal areas viable are a foretaste of what is to come. It would have been better had this happened in a strategic way, and before rather than after the next extreme weather event.
在经历了百年来最强的一次降雨后，今年保险业和政府之间围绕如何维系英国沿海地区生存发展产生的争吵，是对未来事态发展的一次小型预演。假如这场争吵当时能以一种战略性的方式展开、而且能在接下来的一起极端天气事件之前而不是之后展开，那么本会有更好的效果。
US insurance companies have been accused of being ill prepared for climate change. This makes it doubly encouraging that the Bank of England is determined to be on the front foot.
美国的保险公司已被指责对气候变化准备不足。因此，英国央行在这件事上决心主动出击就变得更加令人鼓舞。
