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China’s state industrial complex is accelerating efforts to launch a commercial passenger plane and challenge the global Boeing-Airbus duopoly.
中国一家国有工业联合体正加速主推一款商用客机，挑战国际市场的波音(Boeing)和空客(Airbus)双头垄断。
Comac is developing the ARJ21, a small regional jet, and the larger single-aisle C919. Both projects, which have experienced multiple delays, will be the focus of much attention at China’s premier air show, which opens Tuesday in the southern city of Zhuhai.
中国商用飞机公司（Comac，中国商飞）正在开发小型支线客机ARJ21 和更大的单通道客机C919。这两个都曾多次被延迟的项目，成为周二开幕的珠海航展上引起广泛关注的焦点。
Six years after its maiden test flight, the ARJ21 has yet to enter commercial service. Last year Comac also confirmed that the C919’s maiden flight and delivery date, originally scheduled for 2014 and 2016 respectively, would each be delayed by at least a year.
在首次飞行试验6年之后，ARJ21仍未进入商业服务市场。去年，中国商飞也曾确认了C919 的首飞和交付日期，起初分别定于2014年和2016年，但都将推迟至少1年。
The Chinese government has huge economic interests riding on both planes – and also a mooted wide-body variant of the C919, the C929, which may be developed in partnership with Russia’s United Aircraft Corp. In September, Boeing predicted that China would eclipse the US as the world’s largest aviation market by 2033, saying that Chinese airlines would purchase some 6,000 aircraft – mostly single-aisle planes – worth $870bn over the next two decades.
中国政府指望这两款客机、以及提议中C919的宽体型号C929客机产生巨大的经济利益。C929 可能会与俄罗斯的联合飞机公司(United Aircraft Corp)联合开发。波音在9月预测，到2033年中国将超过美国、成为全球最大的航空市场。波音表示，未来20年，中国的航空公司将采购大约6000家飞机（主要是单通道飞机），价值达8700亿美元。
From both a technical and financial perspective, industry executives say Comac is well positioned to realise its ambitions, but caution that could take years.
行业高管表示，从技术和财务角度看，中国商飞已做好实现抱负的准备，但警告称，这可能要需要多年时间。
“I would say it’s between 10 and 20 years until Comac’s planes will be in widespread service,” says one executive who asked not to be named because he works closely with China’s state-owned aviation companies.
一位要求匿名的高管表示，“我觉得中国商飞的飞机获得广泛应用，将要等上10至20年。”
The challenge for Comac will be to integrate the thousands of components and systems in an aircraft certified as safe by both the Civil Aviation Administration of China and the US Federal Aviation Administration. The latter’s sign-off would ensure the ARJ-21 and C919’s acceptance in the international market.
中国商飞面临的挑战，将是把数百种部件和系统整合到一种飞机上，然后使其获得中国民航总局(CAAC)和美国联邦航空局(FAA)的安全认证。后者的认可将确保ARJ-21 和C919 被国际市场接受。
Money is less of a problem. Comac enjoys the support of a cash-rich state backer – a factor that was essential to Airbus’s emergence as Boeing’s main rival.
资金基本不成问题。中国商飞得到充足的政府机构的支持——而这一因素是空客成长为波音的主要对手关键因素。
Marketing the new planes in international markets will be difficult, however, even with strong credit support from state policy banks such as China Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank of China.
然而，即便得到中国国家开发银行(CDB)和中国进出口银行(China Eximbank)等国有政策性银行的强力信贷支持，在国际市场上推销新飞机仍非常困难。
“Selling the ARJ-21 and C919 will be tricky because when you’re buying an aeroplane you’re not just buying a piece of kit that’s going to fly around for a few years,” says a senior European aviation executive. “You’re buying into the whole support package that the manufacturer has to stand behind for the lifetime of the aircraft – and that’s a huge unknown quantity in the case of Comac.
“销售ARJ-21 和 C919将很有难度，因为当你买入一架飞机时，并非仅仅买入未来几年里飞往各地的一件工具，”一位欧洲航空业高管表示。“你是在买入由制造商提供的涵盖飞机整个寿命周期的一揽子支持服务——你买入中国商飞的飞机时，面临的未知因素实在太多了。”
