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Hopes that the European Central Bank will resort to a full-scale programme of government bond purchases rose yesterday after a poor take-up of cheap ECB cash sparked fresh doubts about policy makers’ efforts to stave off stagnation.
外界对于欧洲央行(ECB)将实施大规模国债购买计划的期待昨日上升。欧洲央行的廉价资金拍卖没有引发热烈反应，再度引发各方对于政策制定者遏止经济停滞努力的疑虑。
The bank injected 129.8bn into the eurozone’s banking system through another offer of four-year loans, but the figure missed all but the most modest of market expectations.
欧洲央行又一次提供四年期贷款，向欧元区银行体系注入1298亿欧元，但这一数字少于几乎所有市场预期。
The ECB plans to swell its balance sheet by 1tn to a level last seen in 2012, as part of efforts to lift inflation and boost growth in the eurozone. Prices rose by 0.3 per cent in the year to November, raising fears that the region could be heading for a prolonged period of Japan-style stagnation.
欧洲央行计划让其资产负债表扩充1万亿欧元，达到2012年以来最高水平，作为提升欧元区通胀和促进经济增长的努力的一部分。在截至11月的一年里，物价仅上涨0.3%，引发了有关欧元区可能陷入日本式长期停滞的担忧。
Those concerns were underscored yesterday when France posted a 0.2 per cent fall in retail prices between October and November, a bigger decline than economists had forecast.
这些担忧昨日加剧，法国数据显示，从10月到11月零售价格下降0.2%，跌幅大于经济学家们的预测。
But the ECB is split over whether to embark on full-blown quantitative easing as a way to achieve its goals. Such a policy is strongly opposed by Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann and other hawkish members of the bank’s governing council.
但在要不要诉诸全面量化宽松政策以实现目标的问题上，欧洲央行内部意见分歧。德国央行(Bundesbank)行长延斯•魏德曼(Jens Weidmann)以及欧洲央行管理委员会的其他鹰派成员强烈反对这样的政策。
They believe that the central bank’s existing measures, which include buying covered bonds and asset-backed securities, and auctioning cheap cash to eurozone lenders, will be enough to raise inflation to the ECB’s target of below, but close to, 2 per cent. Analysts think that the disappointing take-up of the auction has weakened their hand. Nick Matthews, economist at Nomura, said: “The result reduces the strength of the ECB hawks’ argument that existing policy measures are enough.”
他们认为，央行的现有措施，包括购买资产担保债券和资产支持证券，以及面向欧元区银行拍卖廉价资金，将足以使通胀提升至欧洲央行的目标，即低于但接近2%。分析师们认为，令人失望的资金拍卖削弱了他们的论据。野村证券(Nomura)经济学家尼克•马修斯(Nick Matthews)表示：“这个结果削弱了欧洲央行鹰派人士的论点的说服力，他们认为现有政策措施的力度够了。”
Meanwhile, fresh evidence emerged of the diverging fortunes of the US and eurozone economies. US retail sales rose 0.7 per cent in November, the most in eight months, in a sign that faster jobs growth and the rapid drop in petrol prices were boosting consumption.
与此同时，新的证据表明，美国和欧元区的经济走势进一步分化。美国11月零售销售上升0.7%，增幅是八个月来最大的，这个迹象表明，就业增长加快和汽油价格快速下跌正在刺激消费。
The strong numbers will further increase the US Federal Reserve’s confidence in the growth outlook for 2015 and make an interest rate rise by the summer more likely.
强劲的数据将进一步增强美联储对2015年增长前景的信心，并提高了夏天加息的几率。
The probability of full-blown QE in the eurozone increased this month when the ECB changed its language to say it “intended” rather than “expected” to ramp up its balance sheet to 3tn. Yesterday’s auction suggested it would struggle to do so without further action, especially as banks are expected to have to repay hundreds of billions of euros in outstanding ECB loans in the coming months.
本月以来，欧元区出台全面量化宽松政策的几率上升，原因是欧洲央行改变了措辞，称其“打算”（而非“预期”）让资产负债表膨胀至3万亿欧元。昨日资金拍卖情况表明，若不采取进一步行动，它将难以做到这一点，尤其是鉴于各银行在未来几个月需要偿还数千亿欧元的欧洲央行贷款。
“The bottom line is that this should help shift the policy debate to policies fixed on stimulating demand,” said Huw van Steenis of Morgan Stanley. “We think the measures the ECB has announced so far will fall short . . . by 400bn and 600bn.”
“归根结底，这应当有助于推动政策辩论转向专注于刺激需求的政策，”摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的休•范斯蒂尼斯(Huw van Steenis)表示。“我们认为，欧洲央行迄今宣布的措施将低于目标……4000亿至6000亿欧元。”
Additional reporting by Robin Harding in Washington
罗宾•哈丁(Robin Harding)华盛顿补充报道
