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MOSCOW — With oil prices down more than 50 percent in the past year, the ruble having lost more than half its value, a recession looming and the country already dipping into its rainy-day funds, the Russian economy is in a race against time. But one would be hard pressed to grasp the depth of the troubles from the Kremlin’s prescriptions.
莫斯科——石油价格在过去一年暴跌了逾50%，卢布贬值过半，经济衰退的风险迫在眉睫，政府已经动用了应急资金，俄罗斯的经济正在与时间赛跑。不过，从克里姆林宫的描述中，人们却很难了解俄罗斯陷入困境的程度到底有多深。
Anton Siluanov, the finance minister, laid out the government’s long-promised “anti-crisis” package in a live broadcast on state television last week, a laundry list of half-measures and a vague promise of a 10 percent budget cut that economists almost unanimously dismissed as inadequate.
上周，在官方电视台直播的发布会上，财政部长安东·西卢阿诺夫(Anton Siluanov)阐述了政府承诺已久的“应对危机”的一揽子方案。他提出了一系列不彻底的折中办法，并做出了将预算削减10%的模糊承诺。经济学家几乎一致认为，这一削减幅度根本不够。
“That plan is nonsense,” the Russian oligarch Aleksandr Y. Lebedev said in an interview, describing it as throwing away money to rescue some of Russia’s worst companies. “Lots of words and little specific.”
“这套方案毫无价值，”俄罗斯寡头亚历山大·Y·列别捷夫(Alexander Y. Lebedev)接受采访时称。他认为该方案就是为拯救一些最差劲的公司而白白浪费钱。“大话挺多，具体内容几乎没有。”
President Vladimir V. Putin weighed in briefly, repeating that along with keeping tight control over government finances, “We need to change our economy’s structure.”
俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·V·普京(Vladimir V. Putin)在直播中短暂地露面。他重申了这一方案，并表示将继续对政府财政实行严格掌控，“我们需要改变国家的经济结构。”
Yet a wide array of business owners, economists and former senior government officials said in interviews that they expected the Kremlin to react to the crisis the way it had in 2008, the last time it faced a precipitous decline in oil prices — with disaster management, but no fundamental changes.
然而，许多企业所有者、经济学家和前高级政府官员在接受采访时表示，预计克里姆林宫会以2008年面对上一轮油价暴跌时的方式来应对这场危机——只有灾害管理，没有彻底的改革。
“They are trying to get by, manage it strategically and hope that oil prices rise, hope they can make a few adjustments and it will all go away,” said Kenneth S. Rogoff, an economics professor at Harvard University who recently attended a high-level economics conference in Moscow. “There is no appetite for fundamental reform. They are just going to wait.”
“他们就是得过且过，用策略管理危机，指望油价上涨，希望只需要做出小幅调整，所有麻烦就都会消失，”哈佛大学(Harvard University)经济学教授肯尼斯·S·罗格夫(Kenneth S. Rogoff)说。他不久前在莫斯科参加了一次高级别的经济会议。“他们没有兴趣实施彻底的改革，就打算这么拖着。”
The Damoclean sword hanging over the economy is whether $385 billion in government reserves will run dry before oil prices rise. Mr. Rogoff, a former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund, noted that governments habitually underestimate how fast they will go through their financial reserves when they race to bail out banks, save major state corporations and douse flames throughout an ailing economy.
悬在俄罗斯经济上方的达摩克利斯之剑是，政府的3850亿美元（约合2.4万亿元人民币）储备金是否会在油价回升之前枯竭。曾在国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)担任首席经济学家的罗格夫指出，当政府急于援助银行、拯救大型国有企业并在陷入困境的经济中到处救火时，它们会习惯性地低估消耗财政储备资金的速度。
Measures detailed in the plan or pledged earlier include more than $22 billion to shore up banks and major state companies, including roughly $8 billion from the rainy-day Russian National Wealth Fund.
西卢阿诺夫提出的方案中列出的措施以及此前承诺的项目包括，动用逾220亿美元来支持银行和大型国有企业，其中包括来自应急的俄罗斯国家财富基金(Russian National Wealth Fund)的大约80亿美元。
The plan protected two of Mr. Putin’s most important constituencies — older Russians and the security establishment. It earmarked more than $2.7 billion to peg pensions closer to the inflation rate, which mushroomed to 11.4 percent last year and is expected to be at least as high in 2015. No cuts were announced in military spending.
该方案保护了普京的两个最重要的支持者群体——老年人和安全机构。将有超过27亿美元的资金用于使养老金的增长保持在与通胀率更接近的水平上。俄罗斯的通胀率去年激增至11.4%，预计2015年至少也会达到同样的水平。方案中没有宣布削减军事支出。
The government appropriated roughly $700 million for agricultural aid. That is meant to help Russian farmers increase production, because prices soared after the Kremlin barred a host of food imports from the West in retaliation for economic sanctions imposed by the European Union and the United States over the annexation of Crimea and Mr. Putin’s actions in eastern Ukraine. Food prices over all climbed more than 15 percent last year, with some staples like sugar up 40 percent.
政府还拨出了约7亿美元用于农业援助。这是为了帮助俄罗斯务农者增产，因为在克里姆林宫大规模禁止来自西方的进口食品之后，农产品价格大幅上涨。由于俄罗斯对克里米亚的吞并以及普京在乌克兰东部的行动，欧盟和美国实施了经济制裁，而俄罗斯政府针对西方进口食品的禁令就是为了对制裁进行报复。去年，俄罗斯的食品价格整体上涨了逾15%，糖等大宗商品的价格飙升了40%。
Even members of Parliament complained last week that a bowl of porridge in their cafeteria had jumped to 53 rubles, from 20 last year.
就连一些俄罗斯议员上周也抱怨，在他们用餐的食堂，一碗粥的价格从去年的20卢布（约合1.8元人民币）涨到了53卢布。
Russia’s economy is expected to contract at least 4 percent in 2015. While the government holds very little foreign debt, private companies, including some at the very core of the state-dominated economy, have more than $100 billion in loans coming due this year. Most of that is owed to Western banks and will be hard to refinance because of economic sanctions.
2015年，俄罗斯经济预计至少会衰退4%。尽管政府手里的外债极少，但私营企业，包括在由国家主导的俄罗斯经济中处于核心位置的一些公司，有1000多亿美元的贷款将于今年到期。其中大部分借自西方银行，并且因为经济制裁将难以再融资。
The Kremlin’s response combines confidence that oil prices will rebound soon with official bravado that Russians will endure any hardship, including eating less, for the motherland.
克里姆林宫的应对策略是，一方面相信石油价格很快便会回升，同时官方虚张声势地表示，俄罗斯民众将为了祖国忍受一切困难，包括少吃。
The first part of the anti-crisis plan is also aimed at supporting strategic targets like exports and high-tech manufacturing. But no specific steps were included.
在这套应对危机的方案中，第一部分还致力于扶持出口及高科技制造业等战略对象，但并未提及具体步骤。
“You never hear the details of what structural change means,” said Konstantin V. Remchukov, the editor in chief of Nezavisimaya Gazeta and an economics professor. It is not discussed “at any level,” he added.
“永远都听不到结构调整的具体含义，”《独立报》(Nezavisimaya Gazeta)主编、经济学教授康斯坦丁·V·列姆丘科夫(Konstantin V. Remchukov)说。“在各个层面”都不会得到讨论，他接着说。
Fighting between the conservative, nationalistic security establishment surrounding Mr. Putin and his liberal economic advisers has raged for years. Mr. Putin’s choices, ranging from a huge investment in modernizing the armed forces to military adventures in Ukraine, have gradually solidified the position of the security establishment to the detriment of the economists.
普京周围保守的民族主义安保权力集团，与他的自由派经济顾问之间的斗争已持续了多年。从投入巨资让武装部队现代化，到在乌克兰进行的军事冒险活动，普京的选择已逐步巩固了安全部门的地位，却打击了那些经济学家。
Moreover, Mr. Putin came to power after the chaotic 1990s promising to restore order at home and to re-establish Russia’s status as a world power. Easing his singular grip on the country’s political and economic levers or pulling back in Ukraine would threaten the foundations of his presidency and his personal popularity.
此外，普京是在经历了混乱的上世纪90年代后上台的。他承诺要恢复国内秩序，并重新树立俄罗斯世界大国地位。他一手控制着俄罗斯的政治和经济杠杆，而放松这种控制，或是在乌克兰撤退，都可能会威胁到他总统之位的根基，以及他个人的威望。
Mr. Putin and his closest advisers, particularly those like him who are former agents of the K.G.B., remain wary of the consequences of too much economic freedom, many experts said.
很多专家表示，普京和他最亲密的顾问，特别是那些和他一样出身克格勃(KGB)探员的人，依然对过多的经济自由会带来的后果颇为警惕。
“He is afraid to let it go,” said Igor Yurgens, the chairman of the Institute of Contemporary Development, a liberal-leaning research organization. “You have to give much more freedom to those who will implement the changes.”
“他害怕放手，”倾向自由派的研究结构当代发展研究所(Institute of Contemporary Development)所长伊戈尔·尤尔根斯(Igor Yurgens)说。“对要执行变革的人，你必须要给他们多得多的自由。”
Serious questions about whether the Kremlin has a crisis plan have circulated for weeks.
对克里姆林宫是否准备了危机应对方案的严重质疑，已流传了数周。
Recently, at the Gaidar Forum, the country’s premier annual economic conference, three top officials painted rather different portraits of the economy.
前不久，在俄罗斯首屈一指的年度经济会议盖达尔论坛(Gaidar Forum)上，三名高级官员对经济状况的描述大相径庭。
Prime Minister Dmitri A. Medvedev called the reliance on raw material exports “a thing of the past,” without saying what exactly would replace them.
总理德米特里·A·梅德韦杰夫(Dmitri A. Medvedev)称依赖原料出口的日子“已成为历史”，但并未具体表明将用什么来代替这种方式。
Alexei Ulyukayev, the minister of economic development, said Russia had plenty of money to ride out the hard times until economic growth resumed in a year or two. (“He’s a Buddhist!” quipped Mr. Lebedev, noting that the private sector was markedly less calm.)
经济发展部长阿列克谢·乌柳卡耶夫(Alexei Ulyukayev)则称，俄罗斯有大量资金可以安全渡过困难时期，直到经济在一两年后恢复增长。（“他是个佛教徒！”列别捷夫讽刺道，并指出私营领域根本没有这么冷静。）
Only Mr. Siluanov, the finance minister, expressed concern, saying: “In the Ministry of Finance we have no peace of mind. It’s only tension.”
只有财政部长西卢阿诺夫表示担忧，称“在财政部，我们心里并不平静，只觉得紧张”。
The lack of a unified message aggravated the sense that there was little economic coordination at the highest levels of government. “Today, even nonspecialists see that the authorities don’t act as one team,” Mikhail D. Prokhorov, one of Russia’s richest men, wrote on Thursday in the daily business newspaper Kommersant.
缺乏统一口径加重了人们的一种感觉：政府最高层内部在经济问题上不存在什么协调。“今天，即便是非专业人士都能看出来，当局不是作为一个团队在行动，”俄罗斯最大的富豪之一米哈伊尔·D·普罗霍罗夫(Mikhail D. Prokhorov)周四在商业日报《生意人报》(Kommersant)上写道。
“Mr. Putin believes that in six months oil prices will come up; this is his deep conviction,” Mr. Remchukov, the newspaper editor, said. “If we don’t fall apart, we will be in chocolate in two years.”
“普京认为六个月后石油价格就会上涨，他深信这一点，”《独立报》主编列姆丘科夫说。“如果不崩溃，两年后我们就会过上梦幻般的日子了。”
