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The world is awash with more debt than before the global financial crisis erupted in 2007, with China’s debt relative to its economic size now exceeding US levels, according to a report.
一份报告显示，眼下世界负债水平高于全球金融危机爆发前的2007年，其中中国的债务与经济规模之比超过美国。
Global debt has increased by $57tn since 2007 to almost $200tn — far outpacing economic growth, calculates McKinsey & Co, the consultancy. As a share of gross domestic product, debt has risen from 270 per cent to 286 per cent.
根据咨询机构麦肯锡(McKinsey & Co)的计算结果，自2007年至今，全球债务已从57万亿美元增至近200万亿美元，增速远超经济增速。债务与国内生产总值(GDP)之比已从270%增至286%。
McKinsey’s survey of debt across 47 countries — illustrated in an FT interactive graphic — highlights how hopes that the turmoil of the past eight years would spur widespread “deleveraging” to safer levels of indebtedness were misplaced. The report calls for “fresh approaches” to preventing future debt crises.
英国《金融时报》的交互式图表显示，麦肯锡对47个国家债务情况所做的调查凸显出，指望过去8年的动荡将推动普遍的“去杠杆”操作（使债务降至更安全的水平）是幼稚的。报告呼吁有关方面采取“新措施”来防止债务危机未来重演。
“Overall debt relative to gross domestic product is now higher in most nations than it was before the crisis,” McKinsey reports. “Higher levels of debt pose questions about financial stability.”
“眼下大多数国家的总体债务与GDP之比高于危机前水平，”麦肯锡报告称，“债务水平提高给金融稳定带来变数。”
Overall, almost half of the increase in global debt since 2007 was in developing economies, but a third was the result of higher government debt levels in advanced economies. Households have also increased debt levels across economies — the most notable exceptions being crisis hit countries such as Ireland and the US.
总体而言，全球自2007年以来新增的债务近一半出现在发展中经济体，但也有三分之一是发达经济体政府债务水平提高的结果。全球家庭债务水平也提高了，明显的例外是爱尔兰、美国等受到危机冲击的国家。
“There are few indications that the current trajectory of rising leverage will change,” the report says. “This calls into question basic assumptions about debt and deleveraging and the adequacy of tools available to manage debt and avoid future crises.”
“没有多少迹象显示，目前这种债务水平不断升高的趋势会发生改变，”报告称，“这对一些基本假设提出质疑——关于债务、去杠杆化、以及有没有足够的工具来管理债务和避免未来危机。”
Countries that McKinsey warns face “potential vulnerabilities” because of high household debt include the Netherlands, South Korea, Canada, Sweden, Australia, Malalysia and Thailand. “It is like a balloon. If you squeeze debt in one place, it pops up somewhere else in the system,” says Richard Dobbs, one of the report’s authors.
麦肯锡指出，因家庭债务过高而面临“潜在脆弱性”的国家包括：荷兰、韩国、加拿大、瑞典、澳大利亚、马来西亚和泰国。报告作者之一理查德•多布斯(Richard Dobbs)表示：“这就好像气球一样。如果你挤一个地方的债务，它会在系统内另外某个地方冒出来。”
One “bright spot,” McKinsey says, is evidence of deleveraging by banks. Financial sector debt relative to GDP has declined in the US and a few other crisis hit countries, and stabilised in other advanced economies.
麦肯锡表示，一个“亮点”是，有证据显示银行业进行了去杠杆。在美国和其他几个受到危机冲击的国家，金融业债务相对于GDP的比例下降了，在其他发达经济体，这一比例也已企稳。
China’s total debt, including the financial sector, has nearly quadrupled since 2007 to the equivalent of 282 per cent of GDP. That was higher than in the US –— although China is lower if financial sector debt is excluded to avoid double counting. McKinsey warns of risks in China’s property sector, local government financing and a rapidly expanding “shadow” banking system.
中国的总债务水平（包括金融业债务）自2007年至今增加了近3倍，目前水平相当于GDP的282%。这个比率比美国还高，尽管在剔除金融业债务（以避免重复计算）之后，中国的债务比例更低。麦肯锡就中国房地产业、地方政府融资、以及快速扩张的“影子”银行体系存在的风险发出了警告。
The country’s overall debt “appears manageable”, McKinsey says, but its indebtedness would restrict its ability to compensate for slower long-term growth in advanced economies.
麦肯锡表示，中国的总体债务“看上去可控”，但这种债务水平，将制约其对发达经济体长期较低增长进行补偿的能力。
“Before the [post-2007] crisis there was one area where debt was very low and stable, and that was China,” says Luigi Buttiglione, head of global strategy at hedge fund Brevan Howard and co-author of a report in September on global indebtedness. “When there was a crisis in the west, China could lever up. Now that is not the case.”
“在（2007年后）那场危机爆发前，有一个地方的债务水平极低并且非常稳定，那就是中国。”对冲基金“布勒旺霍华德”(Brevan Howard)全球策略主管、去年9月一份关于全球债务情况的报告作者之一路易吉•布蒂廖内(Luigi Buttiglione)表示，“过去，当西方爆发危机时，中国可以加大杠杆率（作为补偿）。如今情况不再如此。”
The report is likely to fuel debates among economists about what is an appropriate level of debt in an economy. McKinsey argues much of the expansion in developing countries has reflected the healthy development of financial markets, but in advanced economies high debt could constrain growth and create fresh financial vulnerabilities.
最新报告可能助燃经济学家们围绕一个经济体合理债务水平的辩论。麦肯锡认为，发展中国家的相当大部分债务扩张反映了金融市场的健康发展，但在发达经济体，高昂的债务可能阻碍增长、制造新的金融风险。
