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The recent global drop in oil prices has made winners of consumers in places like the United States and Japan, and losers of countries that depend heavily on oil exports such as Russia, Iran and Venezuela. China, a leading crude oil importer and the world’s largest energy consumer, has responded to the fall in oil prices — the steepest since 2009 — by going on a buying spree to ensure that its strategic oil reserves at the end of 2014 were twice what they were the year before. Last month, in another move to bolster the country’s supplies, China’s top economic planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, directed domestic oil refiners to stock up on crude oil and to provide the government with monthly updates on their inventories.Matt Ferchen is an associate professor of international relations at Tsinghua University in Beijing and a resident scholar at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy. His latest research focuses on China’s energy sector and its political and economic ties to emerging economies. In an interview, he discussed how the decline in oil prices would affect China’s relations with other countries and its transition to a more energy-efficient future.
最近全球油价下跌，令美国和日本这样的石油消费国受益，而严重依赖石油出口的俄罗斯、伊朗和委内瑞拉等国则沦为输家。中国是原油进口大国，也是全球最大的能源消费国，对于这波自2009年以来幅度最大的油价下跌，中国的反应是大量购入石油，因而该国在2014年底的战略石油储备量达到了一年前的两倍。上个月，中国又实施了另一个获取更多供应的举措：该国最高经济规划机构国家发改委指示国内成品油炼油企业囤积原油，每月向政府提供自己的最新库存数据。陈懋修(Matt Ferchen)是北京清华大学国际关系副教授、清华-卡内基全球政策中心(Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy)学者。他的最新研究领域侧重在中国能源部门及其和新兴经济体的政治经济联系上。在本次采访中，他谈到了对于中国和其他国家的关系，以及对于中国的节能之路来说，油价下跌存在着怎样的影响。
Q: Crude oil prices have fallen to a five-year low, and one response by China has been to build up its strategic petroleum reserves. How well is China handling this opportunity?
问：原油价格已经跌至五年低点，中国的一个反应是扩大战略石油储备。这个机会它把握得如何？
A: China has relatively small reserves compared to the United States, and they can probably only last weeks compared to months in the U.S., so there’s a real need for China to add to those reserves. While other commodity prices have gone down as well, bringing down the overall price of Chinese imports doesn’t solve the long-term energy security problems that China faces. This is going to ultimately be to the detriment of the Chinese economy and to thinking about energy security.
答：和美国相比，中国的储备量相对较小；美国可以维持数月，中国大概只能维持数周时间，所以中国真的有必要扩大储备。虽然其他大宗商品价格也已经回落，降低了中国进口的总体价格，但这并没有解决中国面临的长期能源安全问题。这终究将不利于中国经济及其对能源安全问题的考量。
Q: Have lower oil prices benefited Chinese consumers?
问：中国消费者从油价下跌中获益了吗？
A: It should help to keep inflation down. However, I heard that the gas price is stable at the pump in China, which means the oil companies themselves have in some way increased profitability. I think the question of who is actually seeing the benefit of decreased oil prices is not clear in China, whereas it is obvious in the United States — it’s going to the consumers. But there’s also a downside to that in the U.S., because now people are going to buy gas at the time we’ve seen a greater push for energy efficiency and more fuel-efficient cars, so it seems this development will cut into that momentum in the U.S. right now.
答：油价下跌应有助于降低通胀。不过，我听说中国汽油的零售价格基本平稳，这意味着石油企业本身以某种方式提高了盈利能力。我认为，在中国，谁真正从油价下跌中获益了，这个问题的答案尚不清楚，在美国，情况就很明显——受益的是消费者，但是这也有一个缺点，因为之前大家有更多的动机购买能效更高、更省油的汽车，现在美国已经形成了这种购车趋势的苗头，但油价下跌可能会对其造成打压。
So even if consumers do see lower prices at the pump in China, it’s not at all clear this is a good thing for China. The lower oil price comes with complicating effects as you try to make progress on energy efficiency.
因此，即使中国消费者享受到了更低的汽油零售价格，这对中国究竟是好是坏也很难说。当你试图推进节能目标时，油价却下跌了，这会带来复杂的影响。
Q: Are lower prices likely to cause China to trim back its exploration efforts for energy resources in the South China Sea and thereby reduce tensions with Southeast Asian neighbors that dispute China’s claims to these waters?
问：中国与一些东南亚邻国在南海存在领海主权争端，油价下跌有可能会导致中国减少在那里的能源资源勘探活动，从而缓解他们之间的紧张局势吗？
A: I don’t think it’s going to ease the tensions. I think China will continue to explore for resources. A lot of it is still exploration just to see what’s out there. In some sense, there should be a disincentive for Chinese exploration when prices are this low, but I think state-owned enterprises have a different time horizon and face different economic incentives, especially when compared to private firms, and therefore will continue on with plans as they exist.
答：我不认为这会缓解紧张局势。我觉得，中国将继续进行资源勘探。它进行的很多探勘活动只是为了看看那里有什么。从某种意义上说，油价如此之低，对中国的勘探工作是个不利因素，但我认为，由于中国的国有企业存在着不同的投资期概念，并且面临不同的经济激励措施，特别是与私人公司相比，因此他们会继续开展已经制定的计划。
They don’t pay the costs, ultimately, in the same way that private firms do. For instance, if a lot of your exploration is built on credit, as it is in the U.S. with shale development, there’s a limited time horizon and eventually you’ve got to pay someone else back. Chinese state-owned enterprises don’t face that same problem.
终究来说，中国的国营公司不用支付私营公司需要付出的那些成本。举个例子，如果你赊账开展勘探活动，就像美国的页岩开发那样，那会有一个有限的投资期，最终你需要把钱还给某人。但中国国有企业没有这种问题。
Q: With Russia in economic trouble, between Western sanctions over its actions in Ukraine and falling revenues from oil exports, will it move closer to China?
问：俄罗斯因其在乌克兰的行动遭受了西方制裁，而且石油出口收入也减少了，为此它的经济陷入了困境，俄罗斯会向中国靠拢吗？
A: I think China’s calculations in terms of energy deals hinge on a more advantageous bargaining position over the price of oil, so that leads to greater interest by China to engage with Russia. And, to the extent that Russia now has limited alternatives, that will lead Russia to be willing to make more agreements. I think Russia has a continuing incentive to show that it does have alternatives in terms of markets and also that it has strategic, like-minded partners in a world that is portrayed as hostile to the interests of the nontraditional powers such as BRICS [Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa]. Russia, now under fire from sanctions and a drop in commodity prices, therefore needs a partner. I think that pushes the two sides together both in terms of substantive cooperation and also in an effort to enhance the image of renewed comradeship.
答：我觉得，中国在能源交易上的考虑，取决于更为有利的油价谈判地位，所以中国对和俄罗斯合作的兴趣增加了。另一方面，俄罗斯现在的选项很有限，所以也愿意达成更多的协议。我认为，俄罗斯一直都很希望展示，它确实能在市场上找得到替代买家，而且能在一个被描绘为对非传统势力（比如金砖四国：巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国、南非）的利益充满敌意的世界中找到志同道合的战略性合作伙伴。俄罗斯目前承受着制裁和大宗商品价格下跌的双重压力，因此需要一个合作伙伴。我认为，双方合作既有实质利益的推动，也有展示延续伙伴关系的动机。
Q: What about China’s relationship with oil-rich Iran, which is under international sanctions because of its nuclear programs?
问：那么中国与伊朗的关系如何？伊朗拥有丰富的石油资源，由于发展核计划，它遭到了国际制裁。
A: I think the more interesting question is how China views what is and what isn’t stable in the Middle East in terms of political processes. Iran represents a country where the U.S. sees not only a problematic nuclear policy, but also a support for governments in the region including Syria and is therefore a major source of concern and instability in the region, whereas that is not the perception from China. China worries about the tensions between the U.S. and Iran and would prefer to see a negotiated outcome there.
答：我觉得更有趣的问题是：在中国眼里，从政治进程的角度而言，中东的哪些东西是稳定的，哪些不稳定。在美国眼中，伊朗不仅在核政策上有问题，而且也是叙利亚等政府的支持者，因此是该地区很多问题和不稳定局势的一个主要来源，但中国的看法不是这样。中国对美国和伊朗的紧张关系感到担心，希望他们能靠谈判的方式取得结果。
When Chinese officials and academics speak about Chinese interests in the Middle East, they frequently mention the political stability of the region, the stability of energy production and flows and, to an increasing extent, the ways the region’s instabilities may tie in to domestic concerns within parts of China about separatism and terrorism. So if the U.S. and Iran can normalize their relations, therefore increasing flows of Iranian oil and inducing a more constructive role for Iran in reducing regional tensions, it’s possible that both the U.S. and China could see Iran as a force for the Middle Eastern stability that both claim to want.
在谈到中国在中东的利益时，中国官员和学者经常提及该地区在政治、能源生产和运输上的稳定性问题，而且越来越多地提及该地区的不稳定局势可能和中国国内部分地区的分裂主义和恐怖主义活动存在联系。因此，如果美国和伊朗能够实现关系正常化，从而增加伊朗石油的输出，并让伊朗在缓和地区紧张局势的努力中发挥更具建设性的作用，那么美国和中国可能就会把伊朗视为一支有助于中东稳定的力量，中美都表示希望能这样。
Q: How do lower oil prices change China’s incentives to make progress on renewable energy? Will they help China reach its goals on deterring climate change, which include seeing the country’s carbon dioxide emissions peak by around 2030?
问：油价下跌将如何改变中国追求可再生能源的动力？它会帮助中国实现其阻止气候变化的目标吗，比如在2030年左右该国的二氧化碳排放量达到峰值？
A: I think the drop in oil prices can only be bad for renewable energy. If we see prices at the pump reflecting the change, then I think it would be negative for renewable energy as it would contribute to vehicle use and more people buying cars and contributing to poor air quality. On the other hand, if the government has benefited from lower oil prices and puts the surplus into other kinds of energy-efficient policies, that could be a good thing. They could use this opportunity to put in place healthier kinds of plans.
答：我觉得，油价下跌对可再生能源有弊无利。如果汽油零售价也相应降低，可能就会对可再生能源造成负面影响，因为这会促使人们更多地使用车辆、购买车辆，导致空气质量恶化。另一方面，如果政府从油价下跌中获了益，能把这些钱拿出来，投入到其他类型的节能政策上，那可能就是件好事了。政府可以利用这个机会，推出一些更加绿色的计划。
Q: In a talk before the Foreign Correspondents Club in Beijing, you said that 2014 saw energy return to the top of the world agenda in a way not seen since the 1970s. Can you elaborate on the implications for China?
问：在一次给外国记者协会(Foreign Correspondents Club)做的讲座中，你说在2014年，能源以一种自七十年代以后前所未见的方式回归了世界首要议题之列。你能不能阐释一下这对中国意味着什么？
A: In the U.S. in the 1970s there was a remarkable convergence of public policy, academic and NGO scrutiny of the impact of multinational companies on U.S. foreign policy. Much, although not all, of this attention was focused on the role of U.S. energy and other extractive industry firms. Because of the two OPEC oil shocks of the 1970s there was heightened concern about U.S. energy security in general, and many began to ask whether the private interests of American multinational companies was synonymous with the overall U.S. national interest. In response, policy makers passed legislation like the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, academics created the field of international political economy, and environmental and labor NGOs shined a new light on multinational companies’ behavior abroad.
答：在美国，20世纪70年代，公共政策、学术和非政府组织对跨国公司对美国外交政策影响的监督有一个显著的融合。许多——尽管并非全部——的注意力都集中在了美国能源和其他采掘业企业所扮演的角色上。由于70年代的两次OPEC石油危机，人们愈发关切美国的整体能源安全，且很多人也开始追问美国跨国公司的个体利益是否和美国整体的国家利益一致。作为回应，政策制定者通过了像《海外反腐败法》(Foreign Corrupt Practices Act)这样的法律，学者开拓了国际政治经济学这一领域，环境与劳工类非政府组织也开始重新审视跨国公司的海外行为。
In the last decade, China has experienced a boom in its own outbound foreign direct investment, especially in energy and other extractive industries. In a variety of countries, such as Sudan, Myanmar and Venezuela, the behavior of Chinese state-owned firms and banks has arguably created unanticipated and unwanted foreign policy headaches. The time, therefore, seems ripe for China to experience its own renaissance in how its government and citizens understand and govern how Chinese firms’ foreign behavior impacts the national interest.
过去十年中，中国经历了自己对外直接投资的激增，尤其是在能源和其他采掘业方面。在很多国家，比如苏丹、缅甸和委内瑞拉，中国国有企业和银行的行为可以说带来了意外和多余的外交政策难题。所以现在是时候让中国经历其政府与公民对中国公司海外行为如何影响国家利益的理解和管理方式的新生了。
