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No one does predictions like Mark Anderson, whose forecasts about the intersection of the economy and technology are closely followed in Silicon Valley. He has a global view of what’s the next big thing and place along an eye for hot products and countries that about to take a dive. Anderson is head of Strategic News Service, a newsletter publisher for industry leaders and venture capitalists. It claims a readership that includes Dell CEO, Michael Dell, Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Microsoft’s Bill Gates. Recently, Mark Anderson listed his predictions for 2015 during a gathering in San Francisco. Here are his key points:
没人能像马克o安德森那样精准地洞见未来。他对经济与科技交叉领域的预言一直受到硅谷密切关注。他既能放眼全球，预判即将横空出世的“下一个大事件”和热点地区，又能够洞察哪些热门产品和国家行将过气。由安德森领衔的“战略新闻服务”公司（Strategic News Service），是一家专为行业领袖和风险投资家服务的通讯出版商。该公司宣称拥有众多大牌读者，比如戴尔公司首席执行官迈克尔o戴尔、特斯拉公司首席执行官埃伦o穆斯克和微软创始人比尔o盖茨。最近，在旧金山的一个聚会上，马克o安德森就2015年的科技走势发表了他的预言。主要观点如下：
Tech predictions:
技术预言：
o Digital currencies like bitcoin will multiply and go nowhere. Currencies require the economic strength and military power of a nation to garner people’s trust.
o 像比特币这样的数字货币将层出不穷，同时也会走入绝境。货币总是需要一个国家的经济实力和军事力量作保障才能赢得人们的信任。
o Net neutrality, the idea that Internet service providers and governments should treat all data equally, will survive.
o “网络中立性”，即互联网服务供应商和政府应平等对待所有数据这一理念，将继续存活。
o Pattern recognition will become the real goal of big data. A host of new tools and chips will be developed, to let people gather data and pick out trends that they would otherwise be unable to see, setting off a revolution in computing.
o 模式识别将成为大数据的真正目标。将有大批新工具和芯片被开发出来，让人们收集数据，识别此前无法洞察的趋势，从而引发一场计算革命。
o Following the recent series of corporate hackings, security will become a priority on CEO agendas. Companies will reverse the downward spending trend on security as the cost of poorly protected computer systems outweigh the cost of building secure ones.
o 在多家公司近期接连遭受黑客攻击后，网络安全将会成为首席执行官们关注的头等大事。由于缺乏保护的网络系统可能造成的损失，远远超过打造一个安全网络所需的成本，各大公司将不再削减一紧再紧的安全开支，转而加大投资。
o Virtual reality will remain the domain of entertainment. Headsets that immerse people in a 3D world will not become a feature of everyday life despite Facebook’s $2 billion acquisition of Oculus, a company that makes virtual reality headsets.
o 虚拟现实领域将仍由娱乐业主导。尽管Facebook公司斥资20亿美元收购了Oculus公司，但能让人们沉浸于3D世界的头戴式装备离日常生活仍远。
o Expect Amazon to stumble. Between the brawl with publisher Hachette over e-book prices, drones, and the Amazon Fire phone’s flop, losses are heading Amazon’s way.
o 亚马逊公司前景不妙。由于在电子书定价问题上与Hachette出版集团争执不下，再加上前途未卜的无人机服务和遭遇惨败的Fire手机业务，这家电商巨头很可能遭受巨额亏损。
o Networks for devices connected to the internet (think refrigerators that let you tweet) will get off of their launchpads but remain niche. All people really want is low energy costs, lots of TVs, and one remote. People don’t want complexity replacing reliability and dumb things talking to other dumb things.
o 联网家电（比如一台可以让你发微博的冰箱）将进入市场，但依然不会成为主流。人们真正想要的不过是低廉的能源成本，一大堆电视屏幕和一个遥控器。在许多人看来，让一些不会说话的设备相互交流太复杂，似乎没有传统家电那么可靠。
o Digital payment service Apple Pay will succeed, establishing it’s leadership in the market.
o 苹果公司的数字支付服务Apple Pay将大获成功，在市场上确立领导地位。
o Computer encryption will continue to expand as a major trend.
o 计算机加密将依然是主流趋势。
o Personal health and fitness and lifestyle devices will merge, and there will be a plethora of watches and fitness bands on the market. Intelligent clothing, (think: socks that are connected to the internet and can monitor your blood flow), will stay niche due to price and inconsistency.
o 个人保健、健身和生活方式设备将会融合，市场上将会涌现大量手表和健身腕带。智能服装（设想一下：和互联网相连、能监测血流量的袜子）由于其价格和可靠性问题，仍将属于小众产品。
Economic predictions:
经济展望：
o Oil prices will stay low.An increased supply of alternative energy and additional oil supplies from fracking mean oil prices will stay at $50-$60 a barrel, down by more than half from earlier this year. Trillions of dollars that were tied up in energy spending are now available for bridges, schools, and infrastructure. It’s a gift to the world.
o 油价仍将维持低位。不断增加的新能源和水力压裂法生产的石油意味着油价将会维持在每桶50-60美元，比今年年初下降一半多。曾被能源支出占用的大量金钱现在可用来修建桥梁、学校和其他基础设施。这将是送给全世界的一份厚礼。
o China has a lot to worry about.China’s economy is driven by politics rather than money. Between fudged numbers in government economic reports, pollution, and the population’s distrust of food quality, China’s population is unhappy. China’s leadership is well-educated and intelligent so they’re managing to hold everything together, so it will take years for China to crumble. When it does, the fall will be hard.
o 中国将面临考验。中国经济主要是靠政治而非资本驱动。政府的经济报告充斥着粗制滥造的数据，环境污染严重，人们已经不再信任食品质量。总而言之，中国人并不幸福。中国的领导人受过良好教育，非常明智。他们正在努力维持宏观经济的稳定，因此说中国会陷入困境还为时尚早。不过一旦这一天来临，那就将是一场硬着陆。
o Japan is in a sweet spot.For all the talk about how Japan is in trouble—natural disasters, aging workforce—it is, in fact, doing well. Its business model of high quality exports, a strong global presence with companies like Toyota, and relatively few imports compared to other countries mean Japan’s economy is going strong.
o 日本经济有望迎来复苏。尽管关于日本深陷困境的说法不绝于耳——自然灾害频发，劳动力老化等等——但它实际上状况不错。它依靠高品质出口商品的商业模式，丰田汽车公司这类跨国企业在全球的强势表现，以及相对其他国家较少的进口意味着，日本经济将会走强。
o Samsung is in trouble.Samsung’s business model is based on selling modified versions of existing inventions like the iPhone rather than inventing. With the rise of Chinese competitors like smartphone maker Xiaomi gaining market share, Samsung is in a tight spot.
o 三星公司将深陷困境。三星公司的商业模式是销售现有发明（如iPhone）的改良产品，而不是基于自主创新产品。随着智能手机制造商小米公司这类中国竞争对手的强势崛起，三星的好日子可能到头了。
o India looks pretty good.The recent visits between US and India mean tighter military relations. US is about to give it’s blessing on India’s nuclear weapons program, which has already produced nuclear weapons. This will be the basis for a tighter alliance in South Asia between India and the US that will make China nervous.
o 印度的情况看起来不错。美国与印度领导人近期的频频互访意味着两国正在加强军事关系。美国将对印度的核武器项目加大支持，而后者实际已生产出核武器。这将成为印度和美国在南亚地区结成更紧密同盟关系的基础，而这将使中国感到紧张。
o The European Union is going through a cultural clash.Germany makes most of the decisions, and the question is how will the rest of northern Europe especially Sweden, Finland, Norway, and Denmark stand for it?
o 欧盟将经历文化冲突。目前绝大多数决策都是德国作出的，问题是，其他北欧国家，尤其是瑞典、芬兰、挪威和丹麦是否会支持德国？
o Australia’s not doing great.China owns a large chunk of Australia’s businesses. When Australia had the money to spare, it didn’t invest in it’s own industries and universities. Now, Australia is a natural resource based economy with a sliding dollar at a time when natural resource prices are plunging. Its biggest customer is China, and China is interested in owning Australian businesses.
o 澳大利亚状况欠佳。中国持有澳大利亚企业的大量股权。当澳大利亚手头有钱时，它没有将其投资到自己的产业和大学中。现在，随着自然资源价格不断下跌，澳大利亚已成为一个货币不断走软、依靠自然资源为主的经济体。它最大的客户是中国，而中国的兴趣在于成为澳大利亚众多企业的主人。
