Remember those new year resolutions of 2015 – the ones like “lose ten pounds, learn a foreign language, and travel to distant places?” For the most savvy investors, don’t forget one more: read more annual reports. It’s the perfect time to make good on this commitment. Most companies’ reports are available now except for the smallest public firms. With earnings season for the first quarter only a month away, it’s the perfect time to review a company’s annual report and get a snapshot of what the outlook will be in the year ahead. These reports can easily run hundreds of pages long; rather than get bogged down by the details, here are 5 things to watch for:
还记得新年时你给自己定下的2015年计划吗？比如“减肥，学一门外语，到远方旅行”…对那些最精明的投资者来说，必不可少的一项计划是：多读一些年报。眼下正是实施这个计划的最佳时机。除了那些规模较小的上市公司以外，现在美股市场上，大多数公司的年报都已经可以看到。再过一个月，公司2015年第一季度的业绩也会陆续公布。现在正是回顾上年年报，快速对一家公司今年前景如何形成初步概念的最佳时机。但这些年报往往长达数百页，为了避免各种细节把你搞晕，你可以重点关注以下五点：
1. Venezuela.The country’s battles with inflation and unrest have led to persistent currency devaluations that cause translation headaches and earnings jolts for U.S. multinationals operating in Venezuela. Run a Control-F on “Venezuela” in every annual report to find mentions of the firm’s revenue and net investment exposure to Venezuelan turmoil.
1. 委内瑞拉。委内瑞拉正奋力解决通胀和社会动荡问题，导致该国货币持续贬值。对于在当地运营的美国跨国公司来说，这会使收益严重受挫。大家可以在上市公司的年报里搜索一下“委内瑞拉”这个词，看看其中是否提到了委内瑞拉的混乱局势对收入和净投资的影响。
2. The strong U.S. Dollar’s footprints.Another foreign exposure, yet close to home. The value of the greenback rose rapidly in 2014 and expected to strengthen further. While this signals it’s probably a good time for U.S. tourist to finally book that Europe vacation, it gets more complex for U.S. companies. Find the “Statement of Comprehensive Income,” which usually follows the income statement, and look for an item in it called “Currency Translation Adjustment.” If it’s big – for instance, compared to pretax income – and negative, the company was affected negatively by the dollar’s strength in the last part of 2014. Also, take a look at the Management’s Discussion & Analysis (MD&A) section to see if management has any warnings of what to expect in 2015.
2. 强势美元的影响。这又是一项外部风险，但好歹是“家事”。2014年，美元迅速升值，而且预计还会进一步走强。虽然这对美国人来说可能意味着去欧洲旅游变得很划算，但对美国公司而言情况较为复杂。找到综合收益表，这份报表通常紧跟在损益表后面。然后看一下其中的外币折算调整项目。如果这个数字和税前利润等项目比起来较大，而且是负值，那就意味着2014年下半年美元的强势表现对这家公司产生了不利影响。再找到管理层讨论与分析部分，看看管理层是否对2015年的前景发出了警告。
3. Contractual payments.One of the handiest 10-K requirements the SEC ever dreamed up, this table lists by year the contractually-required cash obligations of a firm right in the MD&A. Think of it as a company-issued cash budget – at least for the outflows. Compare the near-term outflows to the cash generated by the company’s operations as shown in the cash flow statement – before a company’s shorts get it in a knot, so to speak.
3. 合同约定付款。这是美国证监会10K表格中最有用的项目之一。这张表在管理层讨论与分析部分，其中列出了公司按照合同所承担的现金债务。大家可以把它视为公司的现金预算，至少是现金流出额。这么说吧，在上市公司变得捉襟见肘之前，大家就可以用这些短期现金流出额与现金流量表中经营活动产生的现金流做一下对比。
4. Low tax rates.If a firm has been chiseling a little more out its tax rate each year by “indefinitely reinvesting” more untaxed foreign earnings, you’d be right to be somewhat skeptical. After all, all good things come to an end. Check the strength of a firm’s operating earnings; if the company depends on improving its tax rate to improve net earnings, instead of operating earnings, increase your skepticism.
4. 低税率。如果一家公司把更多未税国外收益用于“无限期再投资”，并一再通过这种压低税率的方法小幅提升年度业绩，那么大家就需要对此有所警惕了。毕竟，好景不常在。看一下这些公司的盈利能力。如果某家公司增加净利润的途径是降低税率，而不是经营性收益，那就可以给它打上一个更大的问号。
5. Read the “Critical Accounting Policies & Estimates” in the MD&A.This is where management is warning you about the most sensitive areas in the financial statements – the places where they have to come up with the most malleable numbers they report to shareholders. Consider it a gut check or an IQ test – if you don’t have the slightest idea of what they’re telling you, you probably should not be an investor in the company.
5. 读一下管理层讨论与分析中的“关键会计政策与估值”。在这里，大家可以看到管理层就年报中最敏感部分提出的警告。或者说，在这些最敏感的地方，管理层必须报出最符合股东心意的数字。大家可以将其视为胆量或IQ测试。如果你对管理层谈到的问题没有任何头绪，那么最好还是不要把资金投入这家公司。
Read all of the annual report – but it helps to have a goal when you start. Make these five points your minimum goal and get started. By the time the first quarter is reported, you’ll be finished with the annual reports – and you can start working on those ten pounds.
年报要完整的读一遍，但开始时带着目标去读会对你有所帮助。请把以上这五点作为你的最低目标，然后开始阅读年报。等到一季度财报出炉时，你也就读完年报了。减肥之类的新年计划也形同此理。
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