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Fear of robots, computers, and automation may be at an all-time high since B movies of the 1950s. Not only is there concern about jobs — even white-collar occupations are vulnerable — but big names in technology have weighed in with their worries.
自从上世纪50年代开始涌现大量以机器人为主题B级片以来，人类对机器人、计算机和自动化的恐惧已经达到历史最高水平。这不仅是因为机器人可能抢走他们的工作（甚至就连白领工作也变得岌岌可危），一些科技界大佬的言论也加重了人们的担忧。
Philanthropist and Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates said, “[I] don’t understand why some people aren’t concerned” about artificial super intelligence that could exceed human control. Physicist Stephen Hawking thinks that “development of full artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race,” as machines could redesign themselves at a rate that would leave biological evolution in the dust. Tesla Motors CEO and technology investor Elon Musk said research in the area could be like “summoning the demon” that is beyond control. Hedonated $10 million to the Future of Life Institute, which sponsors research into how humanity can navigate the waters of change in the face of technology.
微软联合创始人、慈善家比尔o盖茨曾说过：“我不能理解为什么有些人不担心会出现人类无法控制的超级人工智能”。物理学家史蒂芬o霍金也认为，“任由人工智能无拘无束地发展，可能会招致人类的灭亡，”因为机器能够以生物进化绝对达不到的速度重新设计自己。特斯拉公司的CEO、科技投资人伊隆o马斯克表示，人工智能领域的研究有可能“召唤出人类无法控制的恶魔”。马斯克最近向生命未来学院捐赠了1000万美金，这所学院主要研究人类如何平安地在科技变革中生存下去。
That’s one camp.
这是一个阵营。
Then there’s another that says doomsday concerns are overblown and that, like a new age FDR, the only thing to fear is fear itself. These people — technologists, economists, and others — say that the combination of artificial intelligence, automation, and robotics will usher in new, better solutions to world problems.
还有另一群科学家表示，人工智能带来的“末日危机”其实被夸大了，就像美国总统罗斯福所说的，唯一值得我们恐惧的就是恐惧本身。支持人工智能的科学家和经济学家表示，人工智能、自动化和机器人会为人类世界的各种问题带来新的、更好的解决方案。
They argue that the fear of technology is old and past experience has proven that while new developments can kill off jobs, they create even more to replace them. Machines could, in theory, replace humans in a wide variety of occupations, but shortcomings in creativity, change, and even common sense are vast, making them unable to in the foreseeable future.
他们认为，人们对科技的恐惧其实早已存在。以往的经验表明，人工智能领域的新发展虽然会剥夺一些人的工作，但同时也会创造更多的工作岗位来取代旧的职业。从理论上看，机器虽然可以取代很多种由人类从事的职业，但机器缺乏创新和变革的能力，甚至缺乏常识，这就使得它们在可以预见的未来还无法彻底取代人类。
Instead, these people suggest, robots and computers will work side by side with humans, enhancing productivity and opening new vistas of freedom for people to move beyond the drudgery of current life. In short, the coming years will look like all the ones that came before and society will sort itself out. In fact, a new film “Chappie,” due out March 6, depicts an anti-Terminator view, a world in which robots hold the solutions and humans are the bad guys. “You would have something that has 1,000 times the intelligence that we have, looking at the same problems that we look at,” the director Neill Blomkamp told NBC News. “I think the level of benefit would be immeasurable.”
他们认为，机器人和计算机将与人类并肩工作，在提高工作效率的同时，还可以为人类带来更多自由，因为它们能够让我们免于从事一些累人的苦差事。简而言之，未来与之前的岁月没什么区别，社会完全能够自我调节。今年3月6日在美国上映的新片《超能查派》就讲述了一个“反终结者”的故事，世界要靠机器人来拯救，而人类成了坏人。该片导演尼尔o布洛姆坎普对《NBC新闻》表示：“未来机器人会拥有相当于我们1000倍的智能，如果让它们来解决我们面临的问题，我认为这种好处是难以估量的。”
The swings of show biz reflect a deep concern and disagreement over whether technology holds promise or peril. The question comes down to whether the past necessarily predicts the future or if humankind could be in for a nasty shock. Hopefully the optimists will be able to say, “We told you so.” Here are five voices that say worries are overblown and leaps in technology will bring the human race along with them.
娱乐业在“终结者”和“反终结者”之间的摇摆，反映出人们对科技究竟会带来福音还是灾难这一问题的关注与分歧。归根结底，问题在于过去的经验是否必然能反映未来？还是未来的某天会发生令全人类震惊的“大事件”？希望乐观主义者到时候会说：“我们早说了没事吧。”以下五位科学家就是这种乐观主义者，他们认为人们对人工智能的担忧完全是杞人忧天，并认为科技的飞跃必然会促进人类社会的进步。
David Autor
大卫o奥特尔
Professor of Economics and Associate Department Head, Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
麻省理工学院经济学院副院长、经济学教授
"In 1966, the philosopher Michael Polanyi observed, 'We can know more than we can tell... The skill of a driver cannot be replaced by a thorough schooling in the theory of the motorcar; the knowledge I have of my own body differs altogether from the knowledge of its physiology.' Polanyi’s observation largely predates the computer era, but the paradox he identified — that our tacit knowledge of how the world works often exceeds our explicit understanding — foretells much of the history of computerization over the past five decades. ...[J]ournalists and expert commentators overstate the extent of machine substitution for human labor and ignore the strong complementarities. The challenges to substituting machines for workers in tasks requiring adaptability, common sense, and creativity remain immense."
“哲学家迈克尔o波兰尼在1966年指出：‘我们所知道的东西，多于我们所能表达的……驾驶员的技能是再详细的驾驶理论教学也取代不了的；我对自己身体的认识，与它的生理学实际也有很大区别。’波兰尼的观察在时间上要远远早于计算机时代，但是他发现的悖论——即我们对世界的隐性知识往往超过了显性理解——在很大程度上成功预言了过去50年的计算机发展史……记者和专业评论人士夸大了机器取代人力的程度，却忽略了两者之间存在极强的互补性。人类从事的许多任务都需要适应性、尝试和创新能力，机器人要想取而代之，依然面临巨大的挑战。”
Jeff Hawkins
杰夫o霍金斯
Executive director and chairman of cognitive theory research organization Redwood Neuroscience Institute, co-founder of Palm Computing, and co-founder of machine intelligence company Numenta
红木神经科学中心常务董事兼主席、Palm Computing公司联合创始人、人工智能公司Numenta联合创始人。
"The machine-intelligence technology we are creating today, based on neocortical principles, will not lead to self- replicating robots with uncontrollable intentions.There won’t be an intelligence explosion. There is no existential threat. This is the reality for the coming decades, and we can easily change direction should new existential threats appear."
“我们目前正在创建的机器智能技术基于大脑的新皮质原理，不会催生有意识脱离人类控制并且具有自我复制功能的机器人。它并不是一个现实威胁。这就是未来几十年的现实。而且就算未来真的出现了现实威胁，我们也可以轻易改变方向。”
Eric Horvitz
埃里克o霍尔维茨
Distinguished Scientist & Managing Director, Microsoft Research
知名科学家、微软研究院常务董事
"There have been concerns about the long-term prospect that we lose control of certain kinds of intelligences. I fundamentally don't think that's going to happen. I think that we will be very proactive in terms of how we field AI systems, and that in the end we'll be able to get incredible benefits from machine intelligence in all realms of life, from science to education to economics to daily life."
“有人担心未来我们可能会失去对某些智能的控制。我认为这种情况不大可能发生。我认为在使用人工智能系统这个问题上，我们会非常积极主动的。而且最终在人类生活的方方面面，从科学到教育到经济，再到日常生活，我们都能享受到机器智能带来的惊人效益。”
Deborah Johnson
黛伯拉o约翰逊
Anne Shirley Carter Olsson Professor of Applied Ethics in the Science, Technology, and Society Program in the School of Engineering and Applied Sciences at the University of Virginia
维吉尼亚大学工程与应用科学学院科学、技术与社会项目伦理学教授
"Presumably in fully autonomous machines all the tasks are delegated to machines. This, then, poses the responsibility challenge. Imagine a drone circulating in the sky, identifying a combat area, determining which of the humans in the area are enemy combatants and which are noncombatants, and then deciding to fire on enemy targets.
“如果完全自动化的机器成熟了，所有任务可以依赖这些机器自行完成。那么这首先会带来职责上的挑战。设想一架盘旋在空中的无人机，能自动识别战斗区域，并确定战场上的哪些人是敌军、哪些是平民，然后自行决定向敌军目标开火。
"Although drones of this kind are possible, the description is somewhat misleading. In order for systems of this kind to operate, humans must be involved.Humans make the decisions to delegate to machines; the humans who design the system make decisions about how the machine tasks are performed or, at least, they set the parameters in which the machine decisions will be made; and humans decide whether the machines are reliable enough to be delegated tasks in real-world situations."
虽然生产这种无人机是可能的，但这种描述具有一定的误导性。这类系统要想顺畅运行，人类是必须要参与的。人类要做出这些决策，然后将任务委托给机器。设计这套系统的人类要决定机器怎样完成任务，至少也要设定相关参数，来对机器的决策进行限定。另外在真实的环境中，人类还要判断机器是否足够可靠，能否委以重任。”
Michael Littman
迈克尔o利特曼
Professor of Computer Science, Brown University
布朗大学计算机科学教授
"To be clear, there are indeed concerns about the near-term future of AI — algorithmic traders crashing the economy, or sensitive power grids overreacting to fluctuations and shutting down electricity for large swaths of the population. There's also a concern that systemic biases within academia and industry prevent underrepresented minorities from participating and helping to steer the growth of information technology. These worries should play a central role in the development and deployment of new ideas. But dread predictions of computers suddenly waking up and turning on us are simply not realistic."
“要明确的是，的确有人担心不久的未来人工智能会对人类产生影响——比如人工智能的交易商会导致经济崩溃，或是敏感的电网管理系统对用电量的起伏产生过度反应，从而切断了大量人口的用电。还有人担心，学术界和产业界的系统性编见，可能导致代表性不足的少数派无法参与掌控信息技术的发展方向。在新理念的发展和部署过程中，这些担忧应该会扮演重要的角色。但是很多人担心计算机会突然醒来攻击我们，这种担忧是不现实的。”
