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Saudi Arabia says its strategy of squeezing high-cost rivals such as US shale producers is succeeding, as the world’s largest crude exporter seeks to reassert itself as the dominant force in the global oil market.
沙特阿拉伯宣布，其挤压高成本竞争对手（如美国页岩油生产商）的战略正取得成功。世界最大原油出口国正寻求在全球石油市场重新确立自己作为主导力量的地位。
The kingdom’s production rose to a record high of 10.3m barrels a day in April and there is no sign that it plans to reverse its policy at next month’s meeting of Opec, the producers’ cartel.
该国的产量在4月升至每日1030万桶的历史新高，同时没有迹象表明，它计划在产油国卡特尔——石油输出国组织（Opec，中文简称欧佩克）下月开会时逆转政策。
“There is no doubt about it, the price fall of the last several months has deterred investors away from expensive oil including US shale, deep offshore and heavy oils,” a Saudi official told the Financial Times in Riyadh, giving a rare insight into the kingdom’s thinking on oil strategy.
“无疑，过去几个月的价格下滑已经使投资者不敢靠近昂贵的石油，包括美国页岩油、深海油田和重油，”一名沙特官员在利雅得对英国《金融时报》表示，此言让外界难得地洞察该国在石油战略上的思路。
The International Energy Agency, the world’s leading forecaster, released data yesterday backing up the Saudi position. It said that with the number of rigs running in the US plunging 60 per cent in response to lower oil prices, US shale production had “buckled” in April, “bringing a multiyear winning streak to an apparent close”.
世界领先的预报机构——国际能源署(IEA)昨日发布的数据支持沙特的表态。该机构称，鉴于较低油价已导致美国运行中的钻井数量暴跌60%，美国页岩油生产已在4月“撑不下去”，“持续多年的连胜记录明显终止”。
But the IEA also cautioned that it would be “premature” to suggest that Opec had “won the battle for market share”. It said global crude supply was growing, even from high-cost areas such as Brazil, as well as from other Opec member states such as Iran and Iraq.
但IEA也告诫称，要说欧佩克已经“打赢了市场份额争夺战”，现在“还不到时候”。该机构表示，全球原油供应量在增长，除了其他欧佩克成员国（如伊朗和伊拉克）以外，就连巴西等高成本地区也在增产。
However, the Saudi official said he expected the kingdom to maintain its dominance of global energy, despite the growth of alternatives to fossil fuels and competition from rival oil producers within Opec and beyond. “Saudi Arabia wants to extend the age of oil,” he said. “We want oil to continue to be used as a major source of energy and we want to be the major producer of that energy.”
然而，上述沙特官员表示，他预计该国将保持其在全球能源市场的主导地位，尽管化石燃料的替代品不断增长，尽管欧佩克内外的产油国与之展开竞争。“沙特阿拉伯希望延长石油时代，”他表示。“我们希望石油继续被用作一种主要能源，我们希望成为能源的主要生产国。”
He was speaking nearly six months after Opec decided to keep output steady rather than play its traditional role of cutting production to support prices. Saudi officials later explained that the policy was designed to put pressure on producers that require a higher oil price to be economic such as US shale drillers and companies operating in Brazil’s offshore fields.
他发表此言近6个月前，欧佩克决定保持产量稳定，而不扮演其传统角色，即减产以支撑价格。沙特官员们后来解释说，该政策意在对那些需要更高油价才具有经济可行性的生产者施压，如美国的页岩钻探企业和巴西海上油田的作业企业。
Expectations are already rising that the market could soon start to tighten by midyear, which the IEA identified yesterday as one of the reasons for the recent rally in the oil price. Having crashed from $115 a barrel last June to almost $45 in January, Brent, the international crude benchmark, is now back up at around $68. The official said the price of oil had now “reached a bottom” and it “doesn’t look like it is going back”.
各方已经在不断增强的预期是，石油市场可能很快（比如到年中）开始趋紧。昨日IEA认定这正是近来油价反弹的原因之一。国际原油基准布伦特(Brent)从去年6月的每桶115美元跌至今年1月的每桶45美元后，目前已回升至每桶68美元左右。上述沙特官员表示，油价已经“触底”，而且“看起来不像会回落”。
But US shale producers would disagree that Saudi Arabia has succeeded in squeezing them. The US oil industry has slowed down but EOG Resources, the country’s largest shale oil producer, recently forecast a return to “double-digit” production growth if the US benchmark — West Texas Intermediate — rises to $65 per barrel or higher. It is currently trading at around $61.
但是，美国的页岩油生产商不同意沙特已成功挤压他们的说法。美国石油业有所放缓，但该国最大的页岩油生产商依欧格资源公司(EOG Resources)最近预测，只要美国原油基准西德克萨斯中质油(West Texas Intermediate)升至每桶65美元或更高（目前在61美元上下），美国石油业就将恢复“两位数”产量增长。
The Saudi official admitted “increased efficiencies” were likely as US shale and other producers adjusted to lower prices. He also said the impact of the price rebound was still “unknown” and “there is not yet any clarity on the US supply curve and drivers”.
上述沙特官员承认，随着美国页岩油企业和其他生产者针对较低油价进行调整，“提高效率”是很有可能的。他还表示，价格反弹的影响仍然是“未知的”，同时“美国的供应曲线和驱动因素仍不明朗”。
