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中文在上，对应英文在下
在欧盟领导人出席本周的希腊危机紧急磋商峰会之际，他们面对的选择将是三条荆棘丛生的出路。出路一是向希腊做出重大让步。出路二是坚持立场，让希腊退出欧元区。出路三是雅典方面基本上接受债权人的要求。
As EU leaders head into an this week’s emergency talkssummit [WHICH DAY? DO WE NEED TO TWEAK FOR TUESDAY’S PAPER VERSION?] , they face a choice between of three hazardous routes out of the Greek crisis. Route one involves making major big concessions to Greece. Route two involves standing firm and allowing Greece to leave the euro. Route three involves Greece Athens largely accepting the demands of its creditors.
这个选择似乎是严峻的。但事实是，这三条道路最终可能引向同一个目的地：欧洲单一货币受到破坏。旅途的长度会有所不同，沿途的“风景”看起来也会不同——但终点仍有可能是相同的。
The choice seems stark. But the truth is that all three routes may ultimately lead to the same destination: the destruction of the European single currency. The lengths of the journeys would vary, the scenery along the way would look different - but the end point could still be the same.
出路一：希腊获胜。过去五个月里，由激进左翼联盟(Syriza)领导的希腊政府按照一个假设执政，那就是欧盟伙伴最终将做出重大让步，而不会冒险眼看着希腊退出欧元区。这些让步将涉及注销希腊的一部分债务，并允许希腊放弃某些改革，如进一步削减养老金和增加税收。
Route one: Greece wins. For the past five months, The Syriza Greek government has been operating on the assumption that its EU European partners will ultimately make major big concessions rather than risk seeing a country leave the euro. Those concessions would involve writing off some of Greece’s debts and allowing Greece the country to abandon some reforms - , such as further cuts in pensions and higher taxes.
但欧盟领导人担心，如果他们做出这样的让步，他们最终可能会在试图拯救欧元区的过程中摧毁欧元区。在迄今坚持执行紧缩计划的国家（如爱尔兰、葡萄牙、西班牙和拉脱维亚），政府将立即被削弱。类似于希腊的Syriza的激进左翼政党，如西班牙的社会民主力量党(Podemos)，将赢得更大人气。与此同时，在已经向希腊提供巨额贷款的国家（德国、芬兰、法国和荷兰），选民们将不得不被告知，这些贷款可能永远收不回来。
But EU leaders fear that, if they make concessions like such as these, they may could end up destroying the eurozone , in order to save it. The governments of countries such as Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Latvia — which have stuck with their austerity programmes — would be instantly undermined. Radical left parties similar to Greece’s Syriza, such as Podemos in Spain, would gain ground. Meanwhile, voters in Germany, Finland, France and the Netherlands — countries that have already lent billions to Greece — would have to be told that those loans might never be repaid.
若果真如此，反欧盟的政党，如德国新选择党(Alternative für Deutschland)和正统芬兰人党(True Finns)，很可能将赢得更大支持。民族主义和极左政党出席未来的欧盟峰会，将意味着根本不可能作出决策。到了那时，欧盟本身（而不仅仅是欧元）的生存会成为问题。
In response, anti-EU parties like such as the Alternative for Germany and the True Finns would probably gain support. The presence of nationalist and far-left parties at future EU summits would make it truly impossible to reach decisions. At that point, the survival of the EU itself — not just the euro — would come into question.
出路二：希腊退欧(Grexit)。与其踏上看起来凶险的出路一，欧盟领导人已经准备考虑第二条出路：让希腊在债务上违约，然后很可能退出欧洲单一货币。欧洲官员似乎普遍深信，希腊退欧不一定导致危机蔓延（若蔓延，金融市场会立即开始猜测欧元区将要解体，从而推高利率，最终可能在意大利或西班牙等国家引发新的债务危机）。
Route two: Grexit. Rather than head down the dangerous-looking Rroute Oone, EU leaders have been prepared to contemplate a second route — in which , where Greece defaults on its debts and then probably leaves the European single currencyeuro. European officials have generally sounded confident that “Grexit” need not cause contagion -, in whichwhereby financial markets immediately begin begin to speculating on the break-up of the eurozone, forcing up interest rates and potentially provoking new debt crises in countries such as Italy or Spain.
从短期看，欧元区或许能够避免危机蔓延，因为欧洲央行(ECB)已制定计划，使其能够买入无限量的欧元区国家债券，迫使利率回落。但长远而言，那不太可能构成防范未来债务危机的保证。欧洲央行的权限理应是暂时的，而一个国家退出欧洲单一货币的先例将是永久性的。
In the short term,, the eurozone might be able to avoid contagion since the ECB European Central Bank has programmes in place that allow it to buy unlimited quantities of eurozone countries’ bonds —, forcing interest rates back down again. In the long- run, however, that is unlikely to be a guarantee against future debt crises. The ECB’s powers are meant to be temporary — but the precedent that a country can leave the European single currency would be permanent.
为寻找更为永久的解决方案，在希腊退欧之后，欧盟政策制定者将推动更深层次的一体化，使货币联盟更强大——尤其是通过真正的银行业联盟。但是，刚刚看到自己的钱因希腊违约而打水漂的北欧选民，极不可能同意承保南欧的银行。
In the search for a more permanent fix, after a Grexit, EU policy makers would push for deeper integration to make the currency union more robust — in particular, through a genuine banking union. But northern European voters will have just seen their money disappear in a Greek default. In the aftermath of that,; they are highly unlikely to agree to underwrite the banks of southern Europe.
希腊退欧对欧盟产生的政治效应也可能是灾难性的。耿耿于怀、稳定遭到破坏的希腊在脱离单一货币后，仍将留在欧盟内，至少在一段时期会如此。希腊可以利用这一地位，在一系列事项（从制裁俄罗斯到非法移民）上阻扰和破坏欧盟政策。希腊本身是非法移民进入欧洲的主要门户之一。
The political effects of Grexit could also be disastrous for the EU. An embittered and destabilised Greece would be out of the single currency but still inside the EU — at least, for a while. From that position it could block and disrupt EU policy on a range of issues, from sanctions on Russia to illegal immigration. (Greece is one of the major main entry points for illegal migrants from Europe.)
最重要的是，希腊退欧将使整个欧洲一体化的未来被画上问号。几十年来，欧盟的稳步扩大一直伴随着和平与繁荣的传播。如果一个国家在贫穷和内乱的背景下狼狈地被踢出欧元区，那将逆转这个进程。
Above all, Grexit would raise questions about the future of the whole European project. For decades, the steady expansion of the EU has been associated with the spread of peace and prosperity. The chaotic ejection of a country from the euro, amid poverty and civil strife, would throw that process into reverse.
出路三：希腊屈服。鉴于前两条出路的危险，欧盟迄今坚持主张，雅典方面应当坚守纾困计划——偿还债务，推行根本改革，使该国经济以更可持续的方式站稳脚跟。不幸的是，即使这条出路也不能保证欧盟将迈向一个安全的目的地。
Route three: Greece folds. Given the dangers ofinvolved in the first two routes, the EU has continued[TALKING ABOUT WHAT HAS HAPPENED IN REAL LIFE; OR WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN IN SCENARIO 3?] to insist that Greece Athens should stick with the programme — paying back its debts and making fundamental reforms that place its economy on a more sustainable footing. Unfortunately, there are no guarantees that even this route would lead the EU to a safe destination.
有几个问题。首先，希腊的债务看起来确实近乎无法偿还，这意味着未来多年里很可能爆发一场又一场债务危机。其次，希腊政府能否很快改革，从而更好地行使政府职能？这个问题的答案远非明朗。裙带关系和缺乏竞争力的问题在希腊太根深蒂固了。
There are several problems.First, Greece’s debts do look close to unpayable -, which meansso there are likely to be further debt crises in the years to come. Second, It is also far from clear that the Greek state the state can be rapidly reformed in ways that will make it a function better-functioning state . The problems of clientelism and lack of competitiveness run too deep.
最重要的是，希腊危机暴露了一个事实，即欧洲单一货币是一个在根本上存在缺陷的计划。从历史上看，没有一个民族国家提供终极支持的货币都会失败。欧盟当初认为，它创建了相关结构，确保欧元仍将可行。希腊危机已证明，这种信念是不正确的。作为回应，一些欧洲领导人会主张，欧元区现在必须创建更像一个国家的结构，如银行业联盟或更大的联邦预算。但过去五年的经历表明，这很可能在政治上被证明是不可能的。
Most important of all, the Greek crisis has exposed the fact that the European single currency euro is a fundamentally flawed project. Historically, currencies that are not ultimately backed by a nation state have collapsed. The EU, nevertheless, thought it had created structures that could make the euro worknonetheless. The Greek crisis This has been shown that to be untrue. In response, some European leaders will argue that the eurozone must now create more state-like structures, such as a banking union or a larger federal budget. But the past five years have demonstrated that this is likely to prove politically impossible.
无情的事实是，当年欧洲领导人创建欧洲单一货币时，他们踏入了没有地图的危险疆域。不存在安全的回头路。
The bitter truth is that when Europe’s leaders set up the European single currency they set off into unmapped and dangerous territory. There are no safe routes back.
