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How do you gauge a commodity exporter’s exposure to China? It sounds simple: the greater the share of commodities in a country’s exports, and the more those exports go to China, the greater the threat posed by China’s slowing economy and Beijing’s efforts to divert it from industrial investment to private consumption.
如何衡量一个大宗商品出口国受中国影响的程度？听起来很简单：一个国家出口额中大宗商品占比越大，其大宗商品对华出口的越多，则中国经济放缓及转型——中国政府力图将主要经济增长动力从工业投资转向私人消费——对该国的威胁就越大。
But some commodity countries, even those dependent on Chinese demand, are faring better than others. In its sovereign credit outlook for 2016, Moody’s Investors Service, one of the three big global credit rating agencies, set out to identify the emerging market governments whose creditworthiness is most in jeopardy.
但是，一些大宗商品国家、甚至那些依赖于中国需求的国家，当前处境却好于其他一些国家。全球三大信用评级机构之一——穆迪投资者服务(Moody's Investors Service)在2016年主权信用展望中，试图分析哪些新兴市场政府的信用面临着最大风险。
According to Moody’s, Asia and sub-Saharan Africa will include the most countries at risk. Mongolia and Angola are at the top of its list.
据穆迪表示，有这种风险的国家在亚洲和撒哈拉以南非洲地区最多。蒙古和安哥拉的风险最大。
Governments that are on track with structural reforms designed to diversify their economies and strengthen their fiscal positions will be better able to ride out China’s falling demand and the associated plunge in commodity prices, says Moody’s.
穆迪称，有些国家的政府正在实施促进经济多元化、加强财政状况的结构性改革，这些国家可以更好地经受住中国需求下滑以及相应的大宗商品价格暴跌的冲击。
However, other analysts note that even governments that have cleaned up their own balance sheets may be at risk from a private sector exposed to the double whammy of commodities and China. Fitch Ratings this week joined those warning that private sector debt presents a threat to the creditworthiness of many EM sovereign issuers.
然而，其他分析师指出，即使是那些已经清理了自身资产负债表的政府，或许也会因为私营部门面临大宗商品和中国因素双重打击而处于风险之中。本周，惠誉评级(Fitch Ratings)也发出了警告，称私营部门的债务对很多新兴市场主权债券发行方的信用构成威胁。
China’s appetite for goods produced in other countries is falling fast. In November, its imports were down nearly 19 per cent from a year earlier, according to the General Administration of Customs.
中国对其他国家所产商品的需求正在迅速下滑。中国海关总署(General Administration of Customs)的数据显示，11月，中国进口额同比下滑将近19%。
Mongolia’s exposure to this fall is stark. China takes 95 per cent of its exports, of which 83 per cent are commodities.
中国需求下滑对蒙古的影响是显而易见的。中国占蒙古出口额的95%，其中83%为大宗商品。
What is more, its defences are meagre. The government’s budget deficit has doubled this year and external debt is ballooning. The private sector is highly leveraged — corporate debt was equal to 85 per cent of gross domestic product in 2012. With export earnings falling, those debts will come under increasing strain. The state will be in little condition to help.
更重要的是，蒙古的防御能力薄弱。蒙古政府今年的预算赤字增加了一倍，同时外债不断膨胀。私营部门的杠杆率极高——2012年企业债务相当于国内生产总值(GDP)的85%。在出口收入下滑的情况下，这些债务将承受越来越大的压力。政府基本上也无能为力。
Mongolia’s plight is mirrored in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, where export dependence on China is at its highest in some of the most troubled, least developed and least diversified economies in the region.
蒙古的困境在撒哈拉以南非洲的部分国家也可以看到。该地区一些最动荡、最欠发达、多元化程度最低的经济体对中国进口的依赖性是最高的。
“Sub-Saharan countries have little scope to reorient their exports to other destinations given subdued global growth prospects,” notes Moody’s.
“鉴于全球增长前景低迷，撒哈拉以南非洲国家几乎没有调整出口目的地的余地，”穆迪称。
China’s rapid entry into the region during the past decade was in part facilitated by the willingness of Chinese businesses and banks to go where others would not. Now, this could prove a double-edged sword.
过去十年，中国快速进入该地区，部分是得益于中国企业和银行愿意去别人不愿去的地方。如今，这一点或被证实是一把双刃剑。
Angola is a textbook case of the woes that await an economy that fails to diversify during its boom years. GDP growth peaked at 22.6 per cent in 2007, as Chinese demand rose to consume 50 per cent of all the oil from Africa’s second-largest oil producer.
安哥拉是经济体因在繁荣时期未能实现多元化而面临困境的典型案例。2007年，中国需求消耗了这个非洲第二大产油国50%的石油，安哥拉的GDP增长率达到22.6%的峰值。
Oil is Angola’s only export to China, and the oil sector provides 90 per cent of government revenues. As the oil price plunged, Angola’s currency went with it, falling more than 25 per cent against the dollar since October 2014.
石油是安哥拉唯一对中国出口的产品，该国90%的政府收入来自石油业。安哥拉的货币随着油价大跌而大幅贬值，自2014年10月以来兑美元汇率下跌超过25%。
The politically troubled Democratic Republic of Congo and neighbouring Republic of Congo are similarly exposed. The former is a major exporter of copper to China, while the latter pumps oil. Neither has developed significant economic sectors beyond extractives.
陷入政治困局的刚果民主共和国和邻国刚果共和国受中国的影响差不多。前者是向中国出口铜的主要国家，后者向中国出口石油。两个国家都没有发展出采掘以外的重要经济产业。
Others, though, have managed to diversify. Ethiopia is a significant exporter of food commodities to China, but as one among many export destinations. Its semi-authoritarian government has built up a fledgling industrial base while investing heavily in agriculture. “Ethiopia should be more resilient than other commodity-exporting countries,” says Sarah Baynton-Glen, Africa economist at Standard Chartered.
不过，其他国家已实现了经济多元化。埃塞俄比亚是向中国出口粮食大宗商品的主要国家，但中国只是其许多重要的出口目的地之一。该国的半威权政府已建立了初步的工业基础，并大力投资农业。“埃塞俄比亚应该比其他大宗商品出口国更能抵御冲击，”渣打(Standard Chartered)非洲经济学家萨拉贝恩顿-格伦(Sarah Baynton-Glen)表示。
