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Japan’s “recession” will soon be exposed as an illusion according to the country’s economy minister, Akira Amari, who on Sunday predicted data revisions this week will turn contraction into growth.
日本内阁府特命担当大臣甘利明(Akira Amari)表示，日本的“经济衰退”很快将被证明只是一个幻影。他在周日预测，本周发布的修正数据将把原先估测的收缩上调为增长。
Initial figures just three weeks ago showed the economy shrank at an annualised 0.8 per cent in the third quarter, meeting the technical definition of a recession, and prompting gloom about the outlook. But Mr Amari said he expected a revision from 0.8 per cent to zero this week.
仅仅三周前发布的初步数字显示，第三季度日本经济以0.8%的年率萎缩，这符合经济衰退的技术定义，并引发各方对于经济前景产生悲观。但甘利明表示，他预计萎缩0.8%的数据将在本周被修正为零。
That would confirm Japan’s economy is not in a downward spiral, despite sluggish consumption and exports, but it would raise fresh questions about the unreliable early growth data.
那将确认尽管消费和出口低迷，但日本经济并未陷入螺旋式下降，不过它也会引发有关初步增长数据怎么会不可靠的新问题。
“I expect growth to turn positive from here,” said Mr Amari, an influential figure in the government of prime minister Shinzo Abe. “I think we’re on a path of steady recovery.”
“我预计增长从此将转为正数，”身为安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)首相的政府中有影响力人物的甘利明表示。“我想我们正处于稳步复苏的轨道上。”
Expectations for an upward revision have grown since the publication of finance ministry data last week showing a third-quarter rise in corporate investment. That was the opposite of the initial gross domestic product data, which showed investment falling.
自财务省上周发布数据、显示第三季度企业投资上升以来，经济数据将向上修正的预期有所增强。最初的国内生产总值(GDP)数据显示企业投资下降。
Analysts at Citi in Tokyo expect an upward revision to show growth was flat while Goldman Sachs expects a revision to plus 0.2 per cent for the quarter.
花旗(Citi)常驻东京的分析师们预期向上修正将显示增长持平，而高盛(Goldman Sachs)预计此次修订将显示该季增长0.2%。
Mr Abe wants companies to invest more at home and is planning to encourage them by cutting corporation tax from 32.11 per cent to 29.77 per cent next year. He is also pushing them to raise wages.
安倍希望企业在国内加大投资力度，并计划通过削减公司税（从32.11%减至明年的29.77%）鼓励它们这么做。他还在推动企业提高工资。
Mr Abe’s goal is to turn the surge in corporate profits caused by the weak yen into greater demand, in order to sustain economic growth and drive inflation towards the Bank of Japan’s goal of 2 per cent.
安倍的目标是把日元疲弱带来的企业利润激增转化为更大的需求，以保持经济增长势头，并推动通胀趋近日本央行(Bank of Japan) 2%的目标。
One problem is the large number of Japanese companies that make accounting losses and therefore pay no corporation tax anyway. On Sunday, Mr Amari hinted at new measures to push them towards investment.
问题之一是很多日本公司在账面上亏损，因而本来就不用缴纳公司税。周日，甘利明暗示将出台新措施，推动它们进行投资。
“You have to pay fixed asset taxes regardless of losses,” he said. “I’d like to bring in fixed asset tax relief for companies making new investments, which is something we’ve never done before.”
“无论亏损不亏损，你都必须交固定资产税，”他表示。“我希望对作出新投资的企业推出固定资产税减免，这是我们从来没有做过的事情。”
The overall effect of any tax changes is hard to predict, however, because the government is engaged in a complicated debate about how to pay for them. It is planning to raise the “pro forma” corporation tax, which is paid regardless of a company’s income.
不过，任何税制改革的总体效果都是很难预测的，因为政府正投入一场有关如何为它们买单的复杂辩论。日本正计划提高与企业利润无关的“预计”公司税。
Taxing companies regardless of profitability should force them to restructure and improve productivity. Hitting them with a rise in the pro forma tax may discourage investment, however, even if it offset by relief from fixed asset taxes.
在不考虑盈利能力的情况下对企业征税，应当能够迫使它们进行重组和提高生产率。不过，提高预计税收可能会打击它们，使其不愿投资——即使得到固定资产税减免的补偿也是如此。
The government is planning a modest supplementary budget for this year, expected to be Y3tn-Y4tn, but the corporation tax changes are likely to be part of the budget for the new fiscal year starting in April.
日本政府正考虑为当前财年推出适度的补充预算，估计规模达到3万亿至4万亿日元，但公司税务改革很可能被纳入从4月开始的下一财年预算。
