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We’ve told Sid, sought average Joes from Bloggs to Sixpack, and followed the investing adventures of Mrs Watanabe around the world. Archetypal retail investors serve the same purpose for market observers as pollsters’ voter stereotypes for politicians. So meet Mrs Wong, China’s contribution to the genre and the force behind its stock-market gyrations.
我们曾见证英国政府鼓励普通人参与国有资产私有化的首次公开发行，也曾追踪有“渡边太太”之称的日本投资者在全球的的投资经历。对市场观察者来说，典型散户的行为模式所起的作用，就像民意调查者描绘的典型选民对政客所起的作用一样。因此，让我们了解一下中国对这一类型的贡献——“黄太太”吧，她也是中国股市动荡背后的驱动力。
This has been the year when the wild swings of Shanghai and Shenzhen became too significant for any investor, anywhere, to ignore. With the biggest index providers laying out their approaches to including mainland stocks in the coming years, international investors have to start paying attention to Mrs Wong now, whether they like her investing style or not.
今年以来，沪市和深市的巨大波动，令任何地方的任何投资者都无法忽视。鉴于各大指数供应商纷纷计划在今后几年里纳入中国股票，国际投资者不得不开始关注黄太太——不管他们喜欢不喜欢她的投资风格。
Even after the summer turmoil when Shanghai and Shenzhen lost a combined 45 per cent of their capitalisation over three months, the two together still represent the second biggest market in the world, worth half as much again as Tokyo, the number three bourse. Mrs Wong and her friends are responsible for about 80 per cent of China’s daily trading, although holding roughly only a quarter in capitalisation terms. Just 2 per cent of the overall market is held by foreigners.
在经历了今夏的暴跌后，沪深两市在三个月里市值总共缩水45%。即便如此，缩水后的沪深两市加起来仍是全球第二大股市，其市值是第三大股市东京的一倍半。中国股市每日成交量的大约80%来自黄太太这样的散户——尽管以市值而论她们持有的股票大约只占四分之一。整个市场只有2%的股票由外国人持有。
Charles Li, head of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and a former China investment banker, offered a description of the Chinese retail trader at an industry conference earlier this month.
在本月早些时候的一个业内会议上，香港交易所(Hong Kong Stock Exchange)行政总裁、曾经的中国投资银行家李小加(Charles Li)曾描述中国散户。
“You can be Mrs Wong, selling vegetables in the morning, and when the market opens you can go into a room and sit down and do your trades just like a Goldman Sachs guy trading on Wall Street,” he said
他说：“她可能是早上还在卖菜的黄太太，开盘后却会走进某个证券营业厅坐下，像在华尔街交易的高盛(Goldman Sachs)交易员那样买卖股票。”
Across much of the world it is common, over time, for retail investors to leave the market by entrusting more and more of their money to professionals. Mr Li does not see that change coming any time soon.
在世界上很多地区，一个常见的现象是，随着时间的推移，散户会逐渐放弃自行操作，转而把越来越多的资金委托给专业人士打理。李小加却不认为中国在短期内会发生这种变化。
“Its not possible to put that back in the bottle. They are used to doing it themselves and it is hard to sell them institutional products,” he says.
他说：“将它收回瓶子里已不可能。他们习惯于自己动手，很难向他们销售机构推出的产品。”
He has reason to know: retail investors still account for about 20 per cent of Hong Kong’s trading volume, compared with 2 per cent in New York, and can be as sentiment-driven as Mrs Wong, aided like her by trading platforms and smartphone apps.
他应该了解：香港股市成交量仍有大约20%来自散户（相比之下纽约的这一比例只有2%），这些散户可能像黄太太一样情绪化，也像她一样利用交易平台和智能手机应用。
If Mrs Wong is not going to cede ground gracefully, international investors are going to have to come to terms with her style. Staring in disbelief at screens of stocks that trade limit-up for days on end and hover at ridiculous valuations will not help investors faced with the gradual opening up of the markets.
如果黄太太不会优雅退让，那么国际投资者将不得不习惯她的投资风格。随着中国股市逐渐对外开放，国际投资者如果只会带着不信任的神情盯着屏幕上的股票接连数日涨停、估值达到离谱水平，那是没有用的。
MSCI signalled this year it could include mainland stocks in some form from 2017 while rival FTSE Russell offered two new emerging markets indices with a 5 per cent weighting of mainland listings, from zero previously.
今年，MSCI明晟释放信号称，从2017年起将以某种形式纳入中国内地股票。而它的竞争对手、富时罗素指数(FTSE Russell)推出两个新的新兴市场指数，其中中国内地上市公司所占权重从过去的零上升为5%。
“Most clients still aren’t ready for the whiplash of mainland markets,” says one senior Hong Kong broker. “They still find it hard to figure out a market based on momentum, not valuation.”
一名资深香港经纪商表示：“多数客户仍未对内地股市的冲击做好准备。他们仍觉得很难搞懂这个基于动量而非估值的市场。”
Underlining the need to get to grips with mainland stocks is the fact that targets for A-share indices are hard to come by from international banks. Most instead focus on indices such as the MSCI China, which is based on H-shares and other Chinese listings outside the mainland.
搞懂中国内地股票的理由之一是，很难从国际银行找到A股指数的目标。多数投资者转而聚焦于MSCI中国指数(MSCI China)这样的指数，基于H股和其他在境外上市的中国股票。
Some A-share analysts have begun to focus on valuations based on discounted cash flows rather than on price-earnings ratios. The rationale is that in a momentum-driven market, the only way to find value is to take a long-term view on the underlying business. All sectors, except financials and energy, are still trading above 20 times p/e.
部分A股分析师已开始根据现金流量贴现法（而不是根据市盈率）得出估值。这其中的理由是，在这个动量推动的市场中，找到价值的唯一办法是对根本层面的业务持一种长远的观点。目前，除了金融和能源，所有板块的市盈率仍在20倍以上。
The general expectation is for some earnings growth in China next year, helped by added liquidity from rate cuts and other monetary easing. But few are more optimistic that mid-single digit improvement and overall index performance is likely to be held back by concerns about the broader economic slowdown.
在降息和其他货币宽松政策增加的流动性帮助下，人们普遍预期明年中国企业的盈利会出现一定程度的增长。不过，多数人没有乐观到认为会出现远超5%左右的增长。而大盘表现可能受到人们对整体经济放缓担忧的拖累。
None of this is likely to excite, or even particularly interest Mrs Wong, focused as she is on hot tips and short-term pops. But at some point international money will join Mrs Wong and that date is moving closer.
所有这一切都不太可能令黄太太激动，甚至也不会令她特别感兴趣。她一贯关注的是热门的小道消息和短期股价反弹。不过，从某个时刻开始，国际上的资金将加入黄太太的行列，而这一日期正日益临近。
“When Mrs Wong meets Blackrock, there will be some sparks,” warns Mr Li. “Its about Chinese liquidity meeting international liquidity.”
李小加警告说：“当黄太太遇到贝莱德(BlackRock)时，将擦出一些火花。关键是中国流动性遇到国际流动性。”
Investors do not need to move wholesale into the mainland, but it will pay them to start looking a little more closely now.
投资者不一定要大举进入中国内地，不过现在开始更密切地关注一下中国内地，将为他们带来回报。
