The Federal Reserve has raised short-term interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade, calling an end to the near-zero borrowing costs that have prevailed since the US was struck by the worst financial crash in modern times.
美联储(Federal Reserve)近10年来首次上调短期利率,结束了自美国遭遇近代最严重金融危机以后一直实行的接近于零的借款成本。
In a landmark step, the US central bank announced a quarter-point increase in the target range for the federal funds rate to 0.25-0.5 per cent, lifting it from the historic lows it has occupied since December 2008, when the US was mired in an economic crisis that would ultimately drive unemployment to 10 per cent.
美国央行迈出了具有里程碑意义的一步,宣布将联邦基金利率上调四分之一个百分点,至0.25%-0.5%的目标区间,此前美国利率自2008年12月(当时美国深陷经济危机,这场危机最终使美国失业率升至10%)以来一直徘徊于历史低点。
Policymakers expect only “gradual” future increases in the federal funds rate after yesterday’s move, the Fed said in a statement. It added that given the current shortfall in inflation compared with its 2 per cent target, it would “carefully monitor actual and expected progress” towards its inflation goal.
美联储在一份声明中表示,政策制定者预计,昨日加息后,未来加息只会“循序渐进地”进行。该机构还称,鉴于目前的通胀率距离2%的目标水平仍有一定差距,它将在实现其通胀目标方面“认真监测实际和预期的进展”。
It said it expected to maintain the current large size of its balance sheet until normalisation of interest rates was “well under way”.
美联储表示,它预期将保持目前较大规模的资产负债表,直到利率正常化“顺利推进”。
The two-year Treasury yield jumped above the 1 per cent mark for the first time since 2010 after the decision.
加息决定公布后,2年期美国国债收益率自2010年以来首次跃升至1%关口上方。
The US central bank’s upward move may be incremental at just 25 basis points, but it represents a historic gamble by chair Janet Yellen, coming at a time when global growth remains lacklustre and the Fed’s foreign counterparts including the European Central Bank are set upon easy policy.
美联储加息行动或许是渐进式的,幅度仅为25个基点,但此举代表着该机构主席珍妮特耶伦(Janet Yellen)的历史性豪赌,因为当前全球经济增长依然乏力,美联储的国外同行,包括欧洲央行(ECB),正在实行宽松货币政策。
The increase comes amid signs of a steady US recovery, with consumer spending growth holding firm and unemployment standing at just 5 per cent, lower than the 5.3 per cent rate that was prevailing when the Fed last kick-started an interest rate-raising cycle in 2004.
美联储加息之际,有迹象表明美国经济稳步复苏,消费支出强劲增长,失业率只有5%,低于美联储2004年上一次启动加息周期时的5.3%。
While inflation has remained stubbornly below the Fed’s 2 per cent goal, the Fed said it was now “reasonably confident” that it will rise back to the objective over the medium term following a considerable improvement in the labour market this year.
尽管通胀迄今顽固地保持在低于目标值2%的水平,但美联储表示,它现在“有合理信心认为”,今年劳动力市场出现显著好转之后,中期而言通胀将回升至目标水平。
In its statement, the Fed said its policy stance would remain “accommodative” even after the increase. “The committee currently expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will continue to expand at a moderate pace and labour market indicators will continue to strengthen,” the statement added.
美联储在其声明中表示,即使在此次加息后,其政策立场仍将保持“宽松”。声明称,“(联邦公开市场)委员会目前预计,随着货币政策立场逐步调整,经济活动将继续以适度步伐扩张,劳动力市场指标将继续加强。”
Median interest-rate projections from the Fed’s policymakers suggested rates could rise by another 100 basis points in 2016, a faster pace than predicted by financial markets. Their median estimate for the longer-term fed funds rate stayed unchanged at 3.5 per cent.
美联储政策制定者的利率预测中值似乎表明,2016年利率可能再上升100个基点,这个速度快于金融市场的预计。市场对较长期联邦基金利率的预测中值仍为3.5%。
Ms Yellen has fallen over herself to communicate to markets that the Fed will lift rates only slowly, allowing it to weigh the impact of a modest move on the economy and financial conditions, including the dollar, before following through with further increases. The Fed’s predictions for future increases suggest this will be the shallowest rate-lifting cycle in modern times.
耶伦近来积极地向市场传递这样一个信息,即美联储只会缓慢地进行加息,使其能够评估每一次小幅加息对经济和金融状况(包括美元)的影响,然后才进一步加息。美联储对未来加息的预测似乎表明,这将是近代以来最平缓的加息周期。
The Fed said that in determining the timing and size of future moves, it will assess “realised and expected” economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 per cent inflation. It currently expects only gradual increases, and the fed fund rates rate is likely to remain below normal levels for some time.
美联储表示,在确定未来加息的时机和幅度时,它将以自己的双重目标(就业最大化和2%的通胀)为参照,评估“实现的和预期的”经济状况。它目前预期利率上调只会循序渐进地进行,联邦基金利率可能在一段时期内低于正常水平。
The increase will be executed by raising the interest rate the Fed pays on excess reserves held by banks to 0.5 per cent, effective on December 17, as well as the use of an overnight reverse repurchase programme.
此次加息将通过以下方式执行,自12月17日起,美联储将把银行超额存款准备金的利率提高至0.5%,并将实施一个隔夜逆回购计划。