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HONG KONG — At the end of last month, the Chinese renminbi was anointed as one of the world’s elite currencies, a first for an emerging market and a widely hailed acknowledgment of China’s rising financial influence and economic might.
香港——上月底，中国的人民币被指定为世界主要货币之一，这对一个新兴市场经济体来说是首次，也受到人们的广泛称赞，认为这是对中国正在崛起的金融影响力和经济实力的承认。
But soon after reaching that milestone, the renminbi started slowly and steadily falling as Chinese companies and individuals moved huge sums of money out of the country’s weakening economy.
但是，由于中国企业和个人在把巨额资金撤出中国的疲软经济，导致人民币在达到这个里程碑后不久，就开始缓慢、持续地贬值。
The falling currency sets a fresh challenge for Beijing’s leaders as the Chinese renminbi is increasingly woven into the global marketplace. While a weaker currency helps the country’s exporters, the government must also control the slide, or risk fanning market worries and trade tensions.
人民币的贬值给北京的领导人带来一种新的挑战，因为中国的货币已经越来越多地与全球市场交织在一起。虽然货币贬值有助于中国的出口，但政府仍须控制货币的下滑，以免诱发市场忧虑和贸易紧张关系。
So far, the Chinese government has stepped into currency markets repeatedly to control the tempo of the drop, but not enough to stop it.
到目前为止，中国政府已多次涉入货币市场以控制人民币贬值的速度，但其做法还不足以阻止贬值。
Over the last two weeks, the renminbi has dropped 1.3 percent against the dollar. The move follows a 4 percent devaluation in August. And while China’s central bank has stayed studiously silent, most banking industry economists now expect the renminbi to continue slipping in the weeks and months to come.
在过去的两周里，人民币兑美元的汇率已降低了1.3％。这是在8月份人民币贬值4％之后。尽管中国央行一直对此有意保持沉默，但大多数银行业经济学家现在预期人民币在未来几周和几个月里将继续下滑。
“We are looking for larger depreciation in the first half of next year, and then a stabilization,” said Ryan Lam, the head of research at Shanghai Commercial Bank, a Hong Kong institution.
“我们预计将在明年上半年看到更大的贬值，然后趋稳，”香港上海商业银行研究部负责人瑞安·林(Ryan Lam)说。
The currency is partly a barometer of global forces, a sign of the Chinese economy’s weakness and the dollar’s strength. It also reflects the market’s bet that the currency will continue to fall as the Chinese government looks to help the country’s economy by making exporters more competitive.
人民币的走向在一定程度上是全球市场力量的晴雨表，反映了中国经济疲软和美元走强的迹象，也反映了随着中国政府希望用让出口更具竞争力来帮助中国经济复苏，市场把赌注押在人民币的继续贬值上。
Every morning this last week, the central bank has weakened by an additional 0.1 or 0.2 percent its daily fixing of the value of the renminbi, which sets the midpoint for the currency’s daily trading range.
上周每天早上，中国央行在设定人民币的初始值、既人民币每日交易区间的中间价时，都在让人民币以0.1%或0.2％的幅度贬值。
The People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank, faces a tricky balancing act.
作为央行的中国人民银行面临着一种棘手的平衡。
If the renminbi falls too steeply, the volatility could prompt traders to place large bets on further depreciation, making the decline harder to control. The International Monetary Fund added the renminbi on Nov. 30 to its group of global reserve currencies, alongside the dollar, euro, yen and pound. In an effort to meet the I.M.F. requirements, China had to loosen some of its currency controls, making it somewhat more susceptible to market forces.
如果人民币贬值的速度太快，可能会促使投资者把大量赌注押在更进一步的贬值上，这会让贬值的趋势难以控制。国际货币基金组织(IMF)在11月30日把人民币纳入了全球储备货币篮子，全球储备货币还有美元、欧元、日元和英镑。中国为了满足IMF的要求，不得不对其货币放松了一些管制，这使人民币更容易受市场力量的影响。
While a weaker currency helps Chinese exporters, it also adds to the country’s already widening trade surplus with the United States.
虽然人民币贬值有助于中国出口商，但这也让中国与美国不断增涨的贸易顺差进一步扩大。
The I.M.F. has a policy of not commenting on short-term currency fluctuations, while the People’s Bank of China and the United States Treasury very seldom do so. All three declined to issue statements on the renminbi’s drop since the I.M.F. decision three weeks ago.
IMF的政策是不对汇率的短期波动发表评论，中国人民银行和美国财政部也很少发表评论。这三家机构都拒绝对人民币自从IMF三周前的决定以来的贬值发表评论。
The I.M.F. had said that China has adopted substantial reforms aimed at making the renminbi more “freely usable.” The Treasury accepted this in lending American support to the decision by the I.M.F.’s board to accept the renminbi. The I.M.F. and the Treasury have both urged China to let markets play a greater role in setting the value of the renminbi, which makes it harder for them to object now when market forces push down the currency.
IMF曾表示，中国为了让人民币能“更自由地使用”已进行了实质性的改革。美国支持IMF董事会把人民币纳入储备货币蓝子的决定是因为美国财政部接受了IMF的上述说法。IMF和美国财政部都在敦促中国在制定人民币价值上让市场发挥更大的作用，因此当市场现在压低了人民币的价值时，这两家机构都很难表示反对。
Those market forces are tougher to manage, although China still has formidable resources to do so.
虽然这种市场力量更难管理，但中国仍然有强大的资源来这样做。
It has the world’s largest trade surplus. And until the last couple of years, that kept the renminbi on a path of gradual appreciation. But money is sluicing out of the country now, and it is more than offsetting the money that comes in from China’s selling of more goods overseas.
中国拥有世界上最大的贸易顺差。直到最近一两年，这个顺差一直把人民币保持在逐渐升值的道路上。然而现在，钱正在泄洪式地流出国门，足以抵消中国向海外出口更多商品所产生的任何外汇收入。
The Chinese government has responded to faltering investment spending in the country by cutting interest rates. While lower lending rates have helped housing prices and construction by making mortgages cheaper, lower rates on bank deposits have also given an extra incentive for Chinese investors to look overseas for opportunities. At the same time, the Federal Reserve is now raising interest rates, making it more attractive to keep money in dollars.
作为对国内投资支出疲软的响应，中国政府已多次降息。虽然较低的贷款利率让抵押贷款更便宜，帮助提升了住房价格和建筑行业，但银行的低存款利率也让中国投资者有更多的理由到海外寻找机会。与此同时，美联储现在开始加息，这让持有美元更具吸引力。
Chinese exporters — and importers in the United States and Europe — are celebrating the renminbi’s weakness.
中国的出口商以及美国和欧洲的进口商都对人民币的走弱表示欢迎。
Betty Chong, a director of the J.C. & Winsons Company, which manufactures gloves, hats and scarfs in Wuxi for export, said that she no longer added a premium to her prices as a buffer against appreciation of the renminbi. “The devaluation of the renminbi against the U.S. dollar of course helps my exports — my goods are comparatively more competitive than those from nearby manufacturers in Bangladesh, Vietnam and India,” she said.
永盛创业是一家在无锡生产出口手套、帽子和围巾的公司，公司董事贝蒂·庄(Betty Chong)表示，现在他们无需再额外加价来缓冲人民币的升值了。“人民币对美元贬值有利于我们的出口业务——相对于附近孟加拉国、越南和印度的生产商，我们产品的竞争力增强了，”她说。
China’s exporters to Europe are benefiting, as well as those selling to the United States. China’s central bank made headlines a week ago by saying that it would publish an index of the renminbi’s value in terms of a basket of currencies, not just the dollar. Such an index would highlight that the renminbi actually strengthened against some currencies in the first 11 months of this year, like the euro, even as it weakened against the strong dollar.
和面向美国的出口商一样，面向对欧洲的中国出口商也从中受益。中国央行上周表示，它将参考一篮子货币发布人民币汇率指数，而不仅仅参考美元，这个消息登上了报纸头条。该指数将突显人民币今年前11个月相对于欧元等一些货币实际是在走强，虽然它对相对于坚挺的美元走弱。
But because the dollar has faltered in the past two weeks, the drop in the renminbi lately has been even sharper against other currencies. The renminbi has fallen 3.7 percent against the euro in the past two weeks, for example.
但由于美元在过去两周里有所下滑，人民币最近相对于对其他货币的跌幅更大。例如在过去两周，人民币对欧元下跌了3.7%。
A weaker renminbi is not a complete boon to Chinese companies.
对中国企业来说，人民币走弱也不全是好事。
Zhang Zepeng, the sales manager at the Qingdao Reliance Refrigeration Equipment Company, which makes cold-storage rooms and refrigerator compressors in Qingdao, has profited from a weaker renminbi on its exports. But he is concerned about rising costs for supplies bought overseas, since his company also sells within China.
张泽鹏（音）是青岛信实制冷设备公司的销售经理，该公司制造冷藏室和冰箱的压缩机，其出口业务从人民币贬值中受益。但张泽鹏对不断上涨的原材料进口费用感到担心，因为该公司也在国内销售产品。
“Since we need to import some of our raw materials, I do not want to see the RMB further devalue to, say, 6.7 or 6.8 against the U.S. dollar, since that will mean we will have to pay more for our raw material imports as well,” he said. It is now around 6.5 to the dollar.
“我们需要进口一些原材料，我不希望看到人民币进一步贬值到6.7或6.8元兑1美元，因为这意味着我们必须花更多的钱在原材料进口上，“他说。目前人民币对美元汇率在6.5左右。
