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With few economic data releases out over the holiday period we are assessing developments in 2015 and looking forward to the issues that will concern markets this year. This week we look at the developing and emerging economies.
鉴于放假期间没什么经济数据出炉，我们正在评估2015年的事态，展望市场在今年将会关注的问题。本周让我们来看看发展中经济体和新兴经济体。
Developing countries have formed more than half of the world economy since the global financial crisis and, with generally higher growth than the advanced economies, this share is continuing to rise.
自全球金融危机爆发以来，发展中国家在世界经济中的占比已经超过一半，由于他们的增长率普遍高于发达经济体，这一占比正继续上升。
According to the International Monetary Fund they accounted for 58 per cent of global output in 2015, when measured at purchasing-power parity (PPP). Problems in the largest of these economies these days become global problems.
根据国际货币基金组织(IMF)的数据，若按购买力平价(PPP)衡量，2015年发展中经济体占全球总产出的58%。如今，大型发展中经济体面临的问题也是全球的问题。
The overriding concern of markets this year — notwithstanding rising US rates — will be the state of China’s economy. It is the largest in PPP terms, and poised to overtake the US in cash terms in the next few years.
尽管美国的利率不断上升，但市场今年最关注的问题将是中国经济的状态。按购买力平价衡量，中国已经是全球最大经济体，并将在未来几年在绝对值基础上超越美国。
IMF data show that China has been the source of 35 per cent of global growth over the past five years, and is forecast to form 30 per cent of growth until 2020.
IMF数据显示，过去五年期间中国为全球经济增长贡献了35%，并将在2020年底之前继续贡献30%的经济增长。
However, the suspect quality of some of the official data inhibits proper analysis. Established developed economies are difficult enough to measure. In China new systems of measurement are being developed at a time of extremely rapid change. These problems are possibly exacerbated by political interference.
然而，一些官方数据的质量可疑，阻碍了恰当分析。老牌的发达经济体已经很难衡量，而中国是在变化极其快速的时期建立新的测算体系。政治干预可能加剧了这方面的问题。
Consensus Economics, which collates and publishes analysts’ forecasts, has polled members of its China panel that have developed alternative models of the economy. While most forecasts point to 6.5 per cent growth in gross domestic product this year — in line with the official target, following 6.9 per cent in 2015 — estimates from the panel are for much lower growth, of 4.8 per cent this year, following 4.3 per cent in 2015.
整理并发表分析师预测的“共识经济学公司”(Consensus Economics)对其研究中国经济的专家小组的成员进行了调查，这些人建立了有关中国经济的另类模型。尽管多数经济学家预测中国国内生产总值(GDP)今年增长6.5%，与官方目标相符，而2015年增长6.9%，但这个专家小组的估测低得多——今年增长4.8%，2015年增长4.3%。
If growth is that low there may be profound implications, particularly for the countries that rely on exporting commodities to China.
如果经济增长那么低，那有可能产生深远影响，特别是对那些依赖对中国出口大宗商品的国家而言。
India is tipped to be the best-performing large economy next year. Estimates point to growth of 7.8 per cent, slightly higher than in 2015, as the economy continues to benefit from lower oil prices. India also still has relatively high interest rates, so could use monetary policy if growth slows.
根据预测，印度将是2016年表现最佳的大型经济体，估计增长7.8%，略高于2015年，该国经济继续受益于油价下跌。印度还仍具有较高的利率，因此在增长放缓的情况下可以运用货币政策。
Another likely star performer is Indonesia, with forecast growth of 4.9 per cent.
另一个有望表现出众的经济体是印尼，预计增长4.9%。
The two remaining Brics — Brazil and Russia — fell into severe recessions during 2015, which are likely to continue this year. The Russian recovery will be helped by the continued depreciation of the rouble, down 30 per cent against the dollar since April.
金砖四国中的另外两个——巴西和俄罗斯——在2015年陷入严重经济衰退，今年很可能继续衰退。俄罗斯的复苏将得到卢布持续贬值的帮助；自2015年4月以来，卢布兑美元汇率下降30%。
Some developing economies may face a dilemma if higher US interest rates strengthen the dollar further. Weaker currencies could lead to higher inflation and capital flight, but raising interest rates to combat this could inhibit growth that is already weak.
如果更高的美国利率导致美元进一步升值，一些发展中经济体可能面临两难。货币贬值可能导致更高的通胀和资本外逃，但如果为了对抗这种局面而加息，就可能掐灭本来就很弱的增长。
The first significant releases of the year will be the Chinese purchasing managers’ reports from Caixin and Markit, out today, with Chinese GDP for the final quarter of 2015 scheduled for January 20.
新年发布的首批重大数据将是财新和Markit定于今日发布的中国采购经理人指数。2015年最后一个季度的中国GDP数据定于1月20日发布。
