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China’s decision to push the value of its currency lower has opened a new front of worry for global investors: a potential wave of currency devaluations among the so-called Asian tigers — South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan.
中国将人民币进一步贬值，使全球投资者陷入新一轮担忧：这有可能会引发韩国、新加坡和台湾等亚洲四小龙国家的货币也出现贬值。
Such an outcome, a number of foreign exchange specialists say, would put a further damper on global growth expectations, which already are being revised downward as China’s once-booming economy retrenches.
不少外汇专家表示，这样的结果会让全球增长预期进一步降低。随着一度繁荣的中国经济开始放缓，这一预期之前就已被下调。
The dollar’s strong run recently — together with the plunge in the price of oil and other commodities — has damaged fragile emerging-market economies like Brazil, Turkey and South Africa; the dollar has risen 130 percent against the Brazilian real and the South African rand since mid-2011.
最近美元走强，再加上石油和其他大宗商品价格大跌，使得巴西、土耳其和南非等脆弱的新兴市场经济遭创；美元对巴西雷亚尔和南非兰特的汇率相比于2011年中已经上涨了130%。
The currencies of fast-growing Asian countries, including India, have largely been insulated, thanks to their better-performing economies and their ability to stockpile large foreign currency reserve positions.
不过，包括印度在内的经济增长速度比较快的亚洲国家，大体上免于受到影响，因为它们的经济表现更好，而且有能力储备大量外汇。
But having a strong currency at a time when manufacturing competitors like Japan and China have weaker currencies leads to a sharp fall in exports, which have been the economic lifeblood of these countries for decades.
但是，美元在日本和中国等制造业竞争对手的货币较为疲软之时走强，导致美国出口剧降。而出口在过去几十年一直是这些国家的经济命脉。
“These countries have some of the most overvalued exchange rates on the planet,” said Julian Brigden of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, an independent research firm based in Vail, Colo., that advises large money management firms on global investment themes.
“这些国家汇率被高估的程度是全球数得上的，”朱利安·布里格登(Julian Brigden)说道。他来自总部位于科罗拉多州韦尔的独立调研机构宏观经济情报(Macro Intelligence 2 Partners)，该公司给大型资产管理公司提供有关全球投资方面的咨询建议。
When economies have high exchange rates, their exports tend to lose market share compared with countries with cheaper currencies. And when that happens, countries that depend on foreign trade will frequently take steps to push their currencies lower.
当一个国家的汇率增高时，其出口相比于汇率较低的国家，会失去一些市场份额。出现这种情况时，依赖对外贸易的国家往往会采取措施，使自己的国家货币贬值。
Echoing these fears, the finance minister of Mexico, Luis Videgaray, warned on Thursday that the Chinese currency actions could lead to a new round of competitive devaluations.
与这些担忧相呼应的是，墨西哥财政部长路易斯·比德加赖(Luis Videgaray)周四发出警告，表示人民币贬值可能会导致新一轮的竞争性货币贬值。
The fear is that a currency war in Southeast Asia — where the Asian financial crisis erupted in 1997 — could result in lower growth and add to the already substantial concerns about the global economy this year and next.
这种担忧在于，如果1997年亚洲金融危机的爆发地东南亚发生货币战争，可能会导致经济增长更加缓慢，使业界本就存在的对全球经济在今明两年发展形势的担忧进一步加剧。
Earlier this week, the World Bank lowered its estimate for global growth to 2.9 percent from 3.3 percent, with expectations for just about all major economies being revised downward.
本周早些时候，世界银行(World Bank)将它对全球增长率的预估值从3.3%降为2.9%，并基本上将它对全球几乎所有主要经济体的经济预测都有所下调。
Already, global money managers have begun to pull money out of some of these Asian markets.
在全球进行资本配置的基金经理们已经开始将资金撤出一些亚洲市场。
The Korean won and the Singapore dollar are down 5 percent, while the Taiwan dollar has lost 7 percent over the last six months. Even in India, perhaps the most popular emerging market among global investors, the currency has given ground, about 7 percent, against the United States dollar.
在过去的六个月里，韩元和新加坡元汇率降低5%，台币贬值7%。就连印度这个全球投资者眼中最受欢迎的新兴市场，其货币对美元的汇率也下跌了7%。
Underpinning the fears about a currency war have been the disappointing export figures from the region.
这个地区令人失望的出口数据，也是加剧出现货币战争这种担忧的一个因素。
For example, Korean exports fell 14 percent in December compared with the same month in 2014. For the year, exports shrank 8 percent — the worst result for the country since the global financial crisis in 2009.
比如，韩国2015年12月的出口额相比于2014年同期下降了14%。2015年整年则比去年缩水8%，是2009年发生全球金融危机以来该国出口业绩最差的一年。
In Taiwan, government officials say they expect exports for last year to have fallen 10 percent; and in Singapore, the manufacturing sector at the heart of the country’s export-based model slumped 6 percent in the most recent quarter.
台湾政府官员表示，他们预计台湾去年的出口额下降了10%；在新加坡，作为该国出口型经济核心的制造业在最近一个季度骤降6%。
These export figures are disturbing because they reflect that something deeper is ailing the global economy than simply a slowing China that is buying less oil from Nigeria, iron ore from Brazil or copper from Chile.
这些出口数据让人不安，是因为它们反映出，给全球经济带来麻烦的是一些更深层次的问题，而不只是中国经济增速放缓，以及随之而来的对尼日利亚的石油、巴西的铁矿石或智利的铜的需求减少。
Strong currencies in the Asian tiger countries have made their high-end electronic products, like Samsung phones from South Korea and computer parts from Taiwan, more expensive in Europe and the United States, their biggest markets.
强势货币使亚洲四小龙制造的高端电子产品，如韩国的三星手机和台湾的计算机零件，在其最大的市场欧洲和美国变得更加昂贵。
And with China, their main export competitor, expected to to let the renminbi weaken further, these countries will face further pressure to let their currencies fall.
随着它们的主要出口竞争对手中国将其货币进一步贬值，这些国家有可能面临更多压力，也不得不贬值其货币。
The sudden export drop-off for manufacturing powerhouses like South Korea and Singapore troubles analysts who see it as a sign that the slowdown in the global economy is worse than people expect.
韩国和新加坡等制造业强国出口锐减，让一些分析人士感到担忧，因为他们认为，这代表着全球经济衰退的程度比人们料想的更糟。
“I expect these currencies to fall by another 20 or 30 percent,” said Raoul Pal, an independent financial analyst and the founder of Real Vision TV, a media venture where sophisticated investors discuss their views on the market. “These export figures are a big deal — it’s a huge shrinkage in the dollar-based economy, as not enough people are buying goods.”
“我预计这些国家的货币还会进一步贬值20%到30%，”媒体平台Real Vision TV的创始人、独立金融分析师拉乌尔·帕尔(Raoul Pal)说道。“这些出口数据不容小觑——在以美元为基础的经济体里，这是规模很大的萎缩，说明没有足够多的人在购买商品。”在其媒体平台上，有许多富有经验的投资者会就市场行情发表自己的观点。
For quite some time, Mr. Pal has been promoting an investment thesis that the relentless rise of the dollar — since mid-2011, the dollar is up 35 percent against a broad basket of currencies — will have a deflationary effect on the global economy as export-driven economies enter into a series of competitive devaluations to protect crucial export sectors.
在相当长的一段时间里，帕尔一直在推广一种投资理念，即美元持续走高——自2011年中至今，美元对一篮子货币的汇率上涨了35%——将给全球经济带来通货紧缩影响，因为出口导向型经济会为保护对本国至关重要的出口行业而竞相贬值其货币。
“This is not just a commodity story,” he said. “It’s a global trade story.”
“不是只有大宗商品价格会受到影响，”他说。“全球贸易都会因之改变。”
Exchange-rate volatility in this part of the world will not take the heat off other weak currencies. In addition to usual examples like Turkey, Brazil and South Africa, investors expect commodity exporters like Indonesia, Chile and Colombia to take a big hit, as the prices for their products continue to fall.
这一地区汇率不稳，并不会减轻其他弱势货币的压力。投资者预计，随着大宗商品价格继续下降，除了人们比较熟悉的土耳其、巴西和南非等，印度尼西亚、智利和哥伦比亚等大宗商品出口国也会受到严重影响。
The final frontier in this respect would be the pegged currencies in the Middle East, especially the Saudi Arabian riyal, which is tightly linked to the dollar.
能够抵御这种冲击的最后一道防线将是中东地区的挂钩货币，尤其是与美元联系紧密的沙特阿拉伯货币里亚尔。
Although Saudi Arabia has been running budget deficits of close to 20 percent of gross domestic product because of the fall in oil prices, it still has a war chest of $635 billion in foreign exchange reserves that it can tap to defend the riyal.
尽管因为油价下跌，沙特阿拉伯的预算赤字一直高达国内生产总值的大约20%，但它还有6350亿美元的外汇储备，足以对里亚尔的汇率形成支撑。
The other problem with downward trending currencies in South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore is that these countries, like just about all emerging market economies, have taken advantage of a rock-bottom interest rate environment to issue billions of dollars in dollar-denominated corporate debt to finance capital investments.
韩国、台湾和新加坡货币贬值趋势的另一个问题是，就像几乎所有新兴市场一样，这些经济体也利用触底的利率环境，发行了价值数十亿美元的以美元计价的企业债券，以便给资本投资提供资金。
Foreign investors were attracted to the high yields and especially the stable currencies and bought them in huge quantities. Now, with the currencies starting to wobble, dollar-based investors have less incentive to hold on to them, and they will do what they have been doing with their Brazilian, Turkish and South African bonds — get rid of them as quickly as possible.
境外投资者受其高收益率吸引，他们尤其看好这些货币的稳定性，于是大量买入。如今，随着这些货币汇率出现波动，以美元进行投资的投资者就相对不那么有动力继续持有这些债券，如同他们针对巴西、土耳其和南非债券所做的那样，他们会尽快将这些债券出手。
“There is a lot of underlying investor exposure in these markets,” said Mr. Brigden, the independent research analyst. “I think if things continue to get worse, we are going to move to liquidation stage.”
“有很多底层投资者在这些市场持有大量资产，”上述独立调研机构分析师布里格登说。“我认为，如果情况继续恶化，我们可能就要进入清算阶段了。”
