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Emerging economies are facing a “new reality” that is significantly slowing the pace of economic convergence with the rich world and risks leading to further financial market volatility, the head of the International Monetary Fund has warned.
国际货币基金组织(IMF)总裁克里斯蒂娜拉加德(Christine Lagarde)警告说，新兴经济体正面临“新现实”，显著拖缓了它们与富裕世界经济趋同的步伐，并有可能造成金融市场进一步波动。
Christine Lagarde told an audience of senior monetary policymakers in Paris yesterday that, after years of success, developing economies needed to confront profound changes now under way.
拉加德昨日在巴黎向参加聚会的高级货币政策制定者们发表讲话时表示，发展中国家经过多年的成功后，如今需要面对正在发生的一些深刻变化。
“Growth rates are down and cyclical and structural forces have undermined the traditional growth paradigm,” Ms Lagarde told a Banque de France conference to mark the retirement of former governor Christian Noyer.
拉加德表示：“增长率下降，而且周期性和结构性力量已经削弱了传统增长模式。”此次活动是法国央行为纪念前行长克里斯蒂安努瓦耶(Christian Noyer)退休而举办的。
“On current forecasts, the emerging world will converge to advanced economy income levels at less than two-thirds the pace we had predicted just a decade ago. This is cause for concern.”
“根据目前的预测，新兴国家向先进经济体收入水平趋同的速度将不到我们十年前所预测水平的三分之二。这是令人担忧的事。”
The change would also reverberate in rich economies, she added. A 1 per cent slowdown in emerging markets will cause already-weak growth in advanced countries to slow by about 0.2 percentage points, Ms Lagarde said.
她还表示，这一变化也会对富裕经济体产生影响。拉加德表示，新兴市场经济增长放缓1%，将导致先进国家已经疲软的增长率放缓0.2个百分点左右。
Her warning comes amid growing concerns at both the fund and the World Bank over the slowdown under way in emerging economies. The World Bank last week warned that developing economies were facing a difficult year in 2016 after last year growing at their slowest rate since the 2008 global financial crisis.
拉加德提出警告时，IMF和世界银行(World Bank)都对新兴经济体的增速放缓感到更加担忧。世界银行上周警告说2016年发展中经济体将面临艰难的一年，去年它们的经济增速是2008年全球金融危机以来最慢的。
The angst among investors over slowing growth, particularly in China, and how authorities are responding has also led to a volatile start to the year in financial markets.
投资者普遍对发展中经济体，尤其是中国的经济增速放缓，以及当局应对方式抱有忧虑，这种情绪引发今年金融市场动荡的开局。
As well as urging policymakers to keep monetary policy loose and use fiscal policy and structural reforms to boost growth, Ms Lagarde called for less reliance on debt and greater use of equity financing.
拉加德敦促政策制定者维持宽松的货币政策，使用财政政策和结构性改革以促进经济增长。她还呼吁减少对债务的依赖，更多地利用股权融资。
“There is an inherent debt bias embedded in the global tax system. More generally, the international monetary system would benefit from a higher share of equity compared with debt flows,” she said.
拉加德说：“全球税务体系里有一种固有的对债务的偏好。但总体而言，股权资本流动的比例若高于债务流动，国际货币体系将会受益。”
“This can be achieved by examining instruments that alter the composition and nature of international flows — away from short-term debt and toward longer-term equity flows.”
“这可以通过研究能够改变国际资本流动的构成和性质的工具来实现，远离短期债务，转向较长期的股权流动。”
The IMF managing director added: “Overall, a global shift toward more long-term, equity based capital flows would alleviate concerns about reversals, and lessen the need for insurance. It would also reduce the size of financial buffers that emerging and developing countries need to maintain.”
拉加德还表示：“总的来说，如果全球范围内出现朝着更长期的、基于股权的资本流动的转变，将减轻对趋势逆转的担忧，并减少采取防范措施的需要。同时还能降低新兴及发展中国家需要维持的金融缓冲规模。”
Ms Lagarde warned that the US Federal Reserve’s shift towards ending its ultra aggressive easing policies had the potential to trigger further exchange rate ructions.
拉加德警告称，美联储(Fed)朝着结束其超激进宽松政策的转变有可能引发汇率进一步波动。
“This volatility could be induced not only by the divergence in monetary policies in major advanced economies, but also by uncertainty about their overall prospects and policy action,” she said.
她说：“可能导致波动性的不止是主要发达经济体货币政策的分化，还有围绕他们的总体前景和政策措施的不确定性。”
Commenting on the recent bout of turmoil in China, she said the shift towards slower and sustainable growth was positive “in the long run”. But the short-run impact would drag on global trade and commodity prices, as well as triggering financial turmoil.
谈到中国最近一轮动荡时，拉加德表示，向更慢的和可持续增长的转变“从长远来看”是积极的。但短期来说将拖累全球贸易和大宗商品价格，并引发金融动荡。
Ms Lagarde also signalled that energy prices would remain low.
拉加德还暗示能源价格仍将保持低位。
