评论
打印
Soaring household debt in Asia is one of the starkest legacies of the post-2008 low rates world order. If 10 years ago US households stood out as some of the most leveraged in the world, today, Asia is home to the highest household debt globally.
亚洲家庭债务水平飙升是2008年后全球普遍的低利率带来的一个极为严酷的后果。如果说10年前美国家庭的杠杆明显居于全球最高之列的话，那么如今全球家庭负债最重的就是亚洲。
But some Asian countries, even those with household debt equal to over 80 per cent of GDP, are faring better than others.
但是，在亚洲，一些国家的境况比另一些要好得多——即便前者中有些国家的家庭债务相当于其国内生产总值(GDP)的80%以上。
Countries where debt has grown gradually and where regulators implemented pre-emptive macro prudential policies are more likely to minimise blows to economic growth.
那些债务是逐渐累积起来的、并且监管机构先行实施了防范性宏观审慎政策的国家，更可能将经济增长面临的冲击降到最低。
Those with reactive regulatory bodies and where household debt surged in just a few years are more at risk, according to analysts and economists. Malaysia and Thailand are at the top of this list.
分析师和经济学家认为，那些监管机构被动应对、并且家庭债务在短短数年间激增的国家风险更高。马来西亚和泰国的风险位居榜首。
Domestic credit growth and swelling household debt have kept many Asian economies humming, even in the face of weak external demand from the west after 2008. Asian banks are, to a large extent, capitalised enough to bear the brunt of high household debt. But if other economic sectors start faltering, these obligations could start eroding GDP growth.
国内信贷增长以及迅速膨胀的家庭债务使得很多亚洲经济体保持繁荣，即便是在2008年之后来自西方的外部需求疲软的情况下。在很大程度上，亚洲银行业的资本也比较充足，背得起高昂家庭债务的沉重负担。但是，如果其他经济部门出现问题，这些债务可能会开始侵蚀GDP增长。
“Household debt is a growth problem, not a financial system problem,” argues Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian economic research at HSBC in Hong Kong.
“家庭债务问题与增长有关，而不是金融体系的问题，”汇丰银行(HSBC)驻香港的亚洲区经济研究联席主管范力民(Frederic Neumann)认为。
If debt becomes unsustainable and households deleverage, consumer spending will choke, consumer confidence will wane and positive momentum will slow — a perfect recipe to squeeze economic growth.
如果债务变得不可持续、家庭开始去杠杆，消费者支出将受到抑制、消费者信心将萎缩、积极势头将放缓——这种情况通常而言都会挤压经济增长。
Asian property markets — which have been on household debt steroids since 2008 — could be the first to burst. In November 2015, housing transaction volumes in Hong Kong — the world’s least affordable housing market — were the lowest on record.
最先破裂的可能是亚洲房地产市场泡沫。自2008年以来，家庭债务一直推动着亚洲房地产市场迅速膨胀。2015年11月，在全球最难以负担的住房市场香港，住房交易降至历史低点。
“Prices have not dropped because people are not forced to sell yet. But what if interest rates increase more than expected? What if we get another taper tantrum? Hong Kong property prices will just drop,” warns Mr Neumann.
“因为人们还没有被迫出售，所以价格尚未出现下滑。但是如果加息力度超出预期会怎样？如果再次出现‘削减恐慌’(taper tantrum)会怎样？香港房地产价格就只能下跌了，”范力民称。
Now that slumping commodity prices and weakening Chinese demand are softening export markets, Asian countries would not be able to fall back on the external sector if their domestic economies underperform.
由于大宗商品价格下滑以及中国需求疲软正在削弱出口市场，如果亚洲国家的国内经济表现欠佳，它们将无法依靠出口部门。
Malaysia’s and Thailand’s household debt to GDP ratios almost doubled between 2008 and 2014 to nearly 90 per cent. Thailand’s tax breaks on vehicle and housing purchases and Malaysia’s favourable credit conditions and strong consumer demand accelerated the increase.
2008年至2014年，马来西亚和泰国的家庭债务与GDP之比几乎增加了一倍，达到将近90%的水平。泰国在购买汽车和住房上的税收优惠政策、以及马来西亚优惠的信贷条件和强劲的消费者需求，都加速了家庭债务增长。
Worryingly, these levels resemble household debt in the US on the eve of the subprime crisis, when it peaked at 100 per cent of GDP in 2006 and 2007. The main difference is that Malaysia’s and Thailand’s nominal GDP in 2014 was around a 40th of the US’s in 2006.
令人担忧的是，这两个国家眼下的家庭债务与GDP之比与次贷危机前夕的美国差不多（美国的家庭债务与GDP之比在2006年和2007年达到了100%的峰值）。主要区别在于，2014年马来西亚和泰国的名义GDP约为美国2006年名义GDP的四十分之一。
Nevertheless, household debt to personal disposable income in Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan is either higher than or as high as it was in the US in 2007, according to Deloitte.
不过，德勤(Deloitte)表示，马来西亚、泰国、新加坡、韩国和中国台湾的家庭债务与个人可支配收入之比都不低于美国2007年时的水平。
Lending to households is slowing in Malaysia and Thailand thanks to regulatory reforms targeting personal unsecured loans and low-income households. But the fact that household debt to income ratios remain high in spite of these reforms is telling. Malaysian and Thai regulators were reactive at best and too late at worst.
由于改革了针对个人无担保贷款和低收入家庭的监管政策，马来西亚和泰国的家庭贷款增速正在放缓。但是，尽管实施了这些改革，但是家庭贷款与收入之比仍然居高不下，这很能说明问题。马来西亚和泰国的监管机构至多可以算被动做出了应对，甚至可以说他们应对得太迟了。
More developed Asian economies are also grappling with high household debt. Data in 2014 ranged from 65 per cent (Hong Kong) to 83 per cent of GDP (Taiwan). But unlike Malaysia and Thailand, this debt has grown gradually and regulators implemented household debt policies very early on.
亚洲一些发达经济体也在努力应对家庭债务高企的问题。2014年的数据显示，亚洲大部分发达经济体家庭债务与GDP之比在65%（香港）到83%（台湾）之间。但是不同于马来西亚和泰国，这些国家的债务是逐步累积的，而且监管机构很早就出台了针对家庭债务的政策。
South Korea is a clear example.
韩国就是明显的例子。
“Household debt in Korea has been high for some time now,” says Marie Diron, senior vice-president for credit policy at Moody’s. “What would make it unsustainable now? Interest rates are low, unemployment is low and debt affordability is high. I don’t think banks will face repayment difficulties.”
“韩国的家庭债务水平偏高已经有一段时间了，”穆迪(Moody’s)负责信贷政策的高级副总裁玛丽迪龙(Marie Diron)称，“眼下什么会使它变得不可持续？利率较低，失业率较低，债务可负担性较高。我不认为银行业会面临偿付问题。”
Even pre-2008, South Korean regulators pioneered the use of loan to value ratios, debt to income ratios, and geographic lending restrictions: real estate in areas with soaring property prices required higher down payments. Hong Kong also introduced loan to value ratios and, together with Singapore, raised the stamp duty to cool property prices down.
早在2008年前，韩国监管机构就率先启用了贷款与价值比率(loan-to-value ratio)、贷款与收入比率(debt-to-income ratio)以及地域性贷款限制的措施（在房地产价格飙升的区域要求更高的首付比例）。香港也引入了贷款与价值比率，香港和新加坡还提高了印花税来给房地产降温。
In Taiwan, where Taipei home prices grew to about 15 times income in 2014, the central bank capped the loan-to-value ratio on new housing loans taken out by borrowers with two or more outstanding mortgages at 50 per cent.
在台湾，2014年台北市的房价收入比上涨至15倍。针对有两份及两份以上未偿抵押贷款的借款人，台湾央行规定新购置房产的贷款与价值比率不得超过50%。
Across the Strait, mainland China’s household debt has also accelerated — it has doubled since 2008 — but still only accounts for 36 per cent of GDP (as of 2014). Ballooning local government and corporate debt are more pressing matters for Chinese regulators.
位于海峡对岸的中国大陆的家庭债务也在加速增长（自2008年以来增长了一倍），但是与GPD之比仍然仅为36%（以2014年的数据计算）。对于中国的监管机构而言，迅速膨胀的地方政府债务和公司债务才是更为紧迫的问题。
Surging household debt has not set off a crisis since most Asian economies can fall back on sturdy banking sectors. Since the 1997 financial crisis, Asian banks have been less reliant on foreign capital and are ahead of the game in terms of tier one capital and profits. More than half world banking profits are now generated in Asia, and Chinese banks have the highest tier one capital in the world, according to The Banker, an FT publication.
由于亚洲多数经济体有稳固的银行业可依靠，家庭债务飙升并未引发危机。自从1997年金融危机以来，亚洲银行业减轻了对外国资本的依赖，在一级资本充足率和利润方面处于领先水平。英国《金融时报》旗下刊物《银行家》(The Banker)称，如今全球银行业利润逾半数来自亚洲，中国银行业拥有全世界最高的一级资本充足率。
Fitch Ratings joins economists in saying that even in Malaysia and Thailand, where household debt has grown the quickest, commercial banks have healthy customer bases, strong capital ratios and asset quality buffers to sustain these liabilities.
惠誉评级(Fitch Ratings)的看法与经济学家们的看法一致，认为即使是在家庭债务水平增长最快的马来西亚和泰国，商业银行也拥有健康的客户群基础、强大的资本充足率和良好的资产质量作为缓冲，足以维持这些负债。
But there are still risks. Household leverage is likely to remain high in the short to medium term since consumer loan demand is set to be below GDP growth in both economies, argues Fitch. This has already increased delinquencies among Thai banks.
但是，眼下仍然存在风险。惠誉认为，由于马来西亚和泰国的消费贷款需求预计将高于GDP增速，家庭杠杆在中短期时间内可能仍将居高不下。在泰国的银行中，这种情况已经开始导致拖欠还款的情况增加。
Asian lenders also need to manage greater risks. Western banks began lending aggressively to top-quality Asian corporates after 2008 to escape dormant European and US economies, with the result that local banks were forced to move down the credit curve and focus on riskier small and medium sized enterprises and households instead.
亚洲银行业还有更大的风险需要管理。2008年之后，西方银行业开始大举向亚洲顶级企业放贷以逃离低迷的欧美经济体，结果使得亚洲本土银行被迫向下调整，改为主要向风险较高的中小型企业和家庭放贷。
Banks in developed Asia are also vulnerable. In South Korea, household debt is largely short term and carrying floating rates, exposing borrowers to rising interest rate risk. Now, regulators are encouraging banks to move clients to long-term, fixed rate mortgages and to bundle mortgages and sell them to the Korea Housing Finance Corporation.
亚洲发达国家的银行业也存在弱点。在韩国，家庭债务大部分为短期债务并且为浮动利率，使借款人面临利率不断上升的风险。如今，监管机构正在鼓励银行使客户转为借入利率固定的长期抵押贷款，将抵押贷款打包出售给韩国房地产金融公司(Korea Housing Finance Corporation)。
“Authorities are realising this [short-term debt] might be a risk,” says Alastair Wilson, head of sovereign risk at Moody’s Investors Service.
“当局开始意识到这（短期债务）可能存在风险，”穆迪投资者服务(Moody's Investors Service)的主权风险主管阿拉斯泰尔威尔逊(Alastair Wilson)称。
