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The recent rally in emerging market assets has slowed somewhat but EM portfolio flows are still in “surge” territory, according to the Institute of International Finance.
国际金融协会(IIF)表示，新兴市场资产价格最近的这波涨势有所放缓，但流入新兴市场证券的资金流动仍处于“激增”区域。
One big beneficiary is Brazil, where investors seem convinced that the government of the unpopular Dilma Rousseff is about to fall and be replaced by a team of reformist technocrats, apparently poised to take power.
巴西是一大受益者，投资者似乎相信，不得人心的迪尔玛•罗塞夫(Dilma Rousseff)政府即将垮台，被改革派技术官僚取而代之，后者显然已准备好掌权。
But Brazil is far from alone. The IIF’s figures — based on a sample of seven EMs that report daily data — suggest that the euphoria is broad-based and applies to commodity and manufacturing-driven EMs alike.
但巴西绝非唯一受益者。国际金融协会的数字（基于七个新兴市场国家每日报告数据的样本）似乎表明，乐观情绪普遍弥漫，涵盖依赖大宗商品和依赖制造业的两大新兴市场群体。
The IIF calls a “surge” or “reversal” in non-resident cross-border portfolio flows to EMs when the seven-day moving average (MA) rises above or falls below a “confidence band” one and a quarter standard deviations either side of the 28-day MA of those flows.
国际金融协会对流入新兴市场的非居民跨境证券投资流动“激增”或“逆转”的定义是，7天移动平均线(MA)升至“信心区间”上方或者跌至该区间下方，这个信心区间是此类资金流动28天移动平均线上下两侧的1.25标准偏差。
The data come from seven countries: India, Indonesia, Thailand and South Africa (equity and bond flows), Brazil and South Korea (equities only) and Hungary (bonds only). Together, they account for 52 per cent of cross-border EM equity flows and 15 per cent of bond flows, according to the IIF.
数据来自七个国家：印度、印尼、泰国和南非（股票和债券投资流动）；巴西和韩国（仅限股票）；以及匈牙利（仅限债券）。据国际金融协会介绍，加在一起，它们占新兴市场跨境股票投资流动的52%，债券投资流动的15%。
The IIF’s latest surge began on March 3. It will remain in place until the two MAs meet again (the seven-day MA re-entered the confidence band March 10).
国际金融协会数据的最新“激增”始于3月3日。在两条平均线再度交集（7日平均线已在3月10日重新进入“信心区间”）之前，资金流动将一直算是“激增”。
Flows turned positive on February 26, since which time the seven countries have registered combined inflows of $7.6bn, the IIF said. This makes the latest influx more powerful than those that occurred in February and October. All seven of the IIF’s countries registered inflows in the most recent week of data.
据国际金融协会介绍，资金流动在2月26日转为正值，自那以来这七个国家总计录得76亿美元流入。这意味着最新的资金流入比今年2月和去年10月出现的流入规模更大。最近一周的数据显示，国际金融协会追踪的七个国家都录得资金流入。
Neil Shearing, chief EM economist at Capital Economics, says markets are enjoying a relief rally spurred by the realisation that things are not as bleak as they appeared during the first weeks of 2016. “An awful lot of bad news was priced in,” he said. “The negative sentiment was a bit overdone.”
凯投宏观(Capital Economics)首席新兴市场经济学家尼尔•希林(Neil Shearing)表示，市场如释重负般地展开一波反弹行情，其触发因素是人们意识到，形势并不像今年头几周所显示的那样黯淡。“很多利空消息已被反映在价格上，”他表示。“前一阵的负面情绪有点过头了。”
Only six or eight weeks ago, the fear on markets was that China was entering a crisis and commodity prices were in freefall. Now, that sense of dread has been lifted.
仅仅6至8周前，市场担心中国正陷入一场危机，大宗商品价格断崖式下跌。现在，这种恐惧感已经消散。
“Fears over China have ebbed, commodities have stabilised and the markets are seeing this as saying something about the state of demand rather than supply,” Mr Shearing said. “The sense of impending EM crisis has ebbed.”
“对中国的担心已经消退，大宗商品有所企稳，市场认为这反映了关于需求、而非供应的一些实情，”希尔表示。“新兴市场危机即将来临的感觉已经消退。”
The relief may have been supported by data out of China at the weekend.
人们的宽慰感觉可能得到上周末中国数据的支持。
They showed a moderate growth in fixed investment in January and February and — in spite of what David Hensley and colleagues at JPMorgan described as “soft” data on industrial output, “disappointing” trade figures and retail sales that had “moderated somewhat” — contained nothing to suggest investors should start panicking again.
这些数据显示，1月和2月的固定资产投资出现温和增长，同时没有任何迹象说明投资者应该再度开始恐慌，尽管大卫•亨斯利(David Hensley)和他在摩根大通(JPMorgan)的同事们形容工业产出数据“疲软”，贸易数据“令人失望”，而零售销售数据“有所放缓”。
The IIF’s data show that the broad EM sell-off that began in the middle of last year has been more gradual but roughly as deep as the “taper tantrum” of 2013, and much less severe than the sell-off that accompanied the global financial crisis of 2008-09.
国际金融协会的数据显示，始于去年年中的新兴市场普遍抛售，相比2013年美联储宣布可能缩减量化宽松后出现的“缩减恐慌”期间更加平缓，但深度大致相同，同时远远没有2008-09年全球金融危机期间的抛售那么严重。
