5.Earthquake-Tsunami Split--Oregon, 2015-2065
5.2015——2065年，俄勒冈州地震海啸
Through the joint efforts of more than 150 volunteer experts, the Oregon Seismic Safety Policy Advisory Commission predicts that an 8.0–9.0 magnitude earthquake and subsequent tsunami will occur off the coast of Oregon within the next 50 years. The big questions are: When will it exactly occur, and will Oregon be prepared?
通过150余位志愿者专家的共同努力，俄勒冈州地震安全政策咨询委员会预测，在接下来的五十年内，俄勒冈州近海将会发生一场8.0——9.0级的地震。而最大的问题在于：地震究竟什么时候发生，以及俄勒冈州是否能做好全面准备。
The possible source of this catastrophic earthquake-tsunami split is the Cascadia subduction zone, a 1,287-kilometer (800 mi) crack in the Earth's crust 97 kilometers (60 mi) offshore from Oregon. The Juan de Fuca and North American continental tectonic plates create this subduction zone, which is considered the "quietest subduction zone in the world" but is currently thought to be hiding one of the biggest seismic events of the century. This occurrence has been predicted since 2010; the Commission now states that it will inevitably occur. This predicted earthquake and tsunami will kill over 10,000 people, possibly splitting apart portions of the West Coast and costing the US $32 billion in damage.
卡斯卡迪亚俯冲带是一条距俄勒冈州近海岸线97公里（60英尺）的地壳裂缝，全长1287千米（800英里），可能成为这场灾难性地震的震源。胡安德富卡板块和北美大陆板块共同创造了这个俯冲带，它被称作"世界上最安静的俯冲带"。然而现在，它却藏匿着本世纪最强烈的地震之一。委员会自2010年就已经预言了这场灾害；现在他们表态：这场地震已经不可避免。这场预测中的地震海啸将会造成一万余人死亡，可能会使西海岸分崩离析，并给美国带来320亿美元的损失。
4.East Coast Submersion--US, 2050–2100
4.2050-2100年，美国东海岸消失
October 2012's Hurricane Sandy put a lot of cities underwater, and due to its power, it is considered a freak storm that would only occur once every 700 years, according to NASA. However, current sea level trends along the East Coast may leave major cities underwater by 2050.
2012年10月，桑迪飓风侵袭美国，致使很多城市被淹，据美国国家航空航天局称，这种强劲的飓风700年才出现一回。然而，按目前东海岸海平面上涨的趋势，一些大城市在2050年可能会消失。
A 2012 study by emeritus professor John Boon of the Virginia Institute of Marine Science claimed that significant changes in sea level along the East Coast from Key West, Florida, to Newfoundland, Canada, started around 1987. His study shows that the sea level is increasing 0.3 millimeters per year. This study dovetails with a US Geological Survey study done by scientists in Florida that states that the sea level of the East Coast is rising three or four times faster than anywhere else in the world. Coastal areas in the northeastern US are currently considered to be more at-risk due to the major property values and built-up coastlines in places like New York City, which may be flooded by 2050. New York City's sea level is expected to increase 79 centimeters (31 in) by 2050, leaving 25 percent of the city in danger of turning into a floodplain. Around 800,000 people live in the target flooding zone, and by 2050, 97 percent of New York City's power plants will be there as well. This is why ex–New York mayor Michael Bloomberg proposed a $20 billion flood system in 2013 for New York City before he left office, but this plan was not put into action.
约翰·布恩是弗吉尼亚海洋研究所的一名退休教授，他在2012年发表的一个研究中称，自1987年开始，沿着美国东海岸，从佛罗里达的基维斯特岛到加拿大纽芬兰的海平面出现大幅变动，每年上升0.3毫米。他的研究和美国地质调查局所做的一项研究不谋而合，该研究称东海岸海平面的上升速度是全球其他地方的3至4倍。人们认为美国东北部的沿海地区面临着更大的风险，因为这里高楼林立，还有像纽约这种海岸线上建筑密集的城市，而这些地方也许到2050年就会被潮水淹没。到2050年，纽约市的海平面预计将上升79厘米（约31英寸），届时，城市中25%的地方都将成为涝原。约80万人生活在这片面临淹没的地区，而且到2050年，纽约市97%的发电厂都将建在这里。所以，纽约前市长迈克尔·彭博在2013年离职前提出花200亿美元建设防洪系统，不过这个提议并未付诸行动。
3.Largest Tsunami Ever--Caribbean, Unknown
3.时间未知，加勒比海史上最大海啸
Dr. Simon Day of University College London and Dr. Steven Ward from the University of California Santa Cruz predict that the Cumbre Vieja volcano on the Canary Islands will erupt and create the largest tsunami in recorded history. In their jointly written and released paper on the topic in 2001, Dr. Day and Dr. Ward hypothesize that a rupture in the volcano's structure occurred during its last eruption, causing the left side to have become particularly unstable.
伦敦大学学院的西蒙·戴博士和加州大学圣克鲁兹分校的史蒂芬·沃德博士都预测，位于加纳利群岛的康伯利维亚火山将会喷发，并引起史上最强劲的海啸。2001年，在他们共同撰写发表的论文中，戴博士和沃德博士推测，上一次的火山喷发使火山的结构破裂，导致火山左侧变得极其不稳定。
If Cumbre Vieja were ever to erupt again, its left side would turn into a landslide that would cause the biggest tsunami in the history of man. They have deduced that the monstrous wave will travel at 800 kilometers per hour (500 mph), be 100 meters (330 ft) tall upon first impact with land, and will reach Florida within nine hours of being created. Dr. Day and Dr. Ward predict that tsunamis will hit faraway places such as England, Florida, and the Caribbean. Note that this is a worst-case scenario. If an eruption-caused landslide on Cumbre Vieja were to happen, it's more likely that the entire landmass wouldn't all fall into the sea in one event. A more piecemeal landslide would not cause a record-breaking tsunami. Nevertheless, if you are looking at beachside property in the South, you may wish to reconsider.
如果康伯利维亚火山再次喷发，它的左半部分将会崩裂，从而引发人类史上最大的海啸。两位博士推测，届时海浪将以每小时800千米的速度前进（500英里/小时），浪高100米（约等于330英尺），海啸形成后将在9小时内抵达佛罗里达州。戴博士和沃德博士还预测，这场海啸还会波及英格兰、佛罗里达以及加勒比海等地。请注意，这只是最糟糕的情况。如果火山喷发真的导致火山崩裂，整块大陆未必都会消失。小面积的崩裂并不会引发超大规模的海啸。不过，如果你正在寻找南部海滨住宅，那最好还是重新考虑一下。
2.The "Big One"--California, 2015-2045
2.2015-2045年，加利福尼亚"超级震"
The US Geological Survey has increased the probability of the likelihood of a magnitude 8.0 or larger earthquake hitting California within the next few decades. The "Big One" refers to the earthquake that many Californians have been waiting for with bated breath for years. The USGS's Third Uniform California Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) predicts earthquake eruptions and states that a magnitude 8.0 earthquake or larger quake has a 7 percent chance of occurring in the next 30 years, at present. The odds of a magnitude 6.5–7.0 earthquake hitting went up 30 percent.
美国地质调查局认为，加利福尼亚州在未来几十年内将发生8级或以上地震的几率有所增加。这场"超级震"让许多加利福尼亚人几年来都屏气凝神，不敢怠懈。地质调查局的UCERF3模型，即第三版统一加州地震断裂预测模型预测了发生地震的可能性，并表明在未来三十年内发生8级或以上地震的可能性达百分之七。而发生6.5到7.0级地震的几率上升了百分之三十。
If it were to hit, it would most likely come from the breaking of the San Andreas Fault, spanning the distance in southern California inland from Los Angeles, but there is some speculation as to which fault will be the origin point. Some reports specify that the Big One will originate from the Hayward Fault near the Bay Area and San Francisco. No matter where the earthquake comes from, it is predicted to devastate all of California and other parts of the West Coast. A "realistic crisis scenario" to be used for emergency planning was created by 300 scientists and details the earthquake's occurrence and damage through historical data–based computer projections. The computer predicts that the earthquake will produce shock waves that travel 11,600 kilometers per hour (7,200 mph), causing severe damage to major freeways and buildings. Overall, the biggest concern for any major earthquake is fires, due to the amount of dry brush that could turn any small blaze into a raging inferno.The White House granted $5 million to a team from Caltech, UC Berkeley, and the University of Washington, that is developing the Earthquake Early Warning system to alert people one minute in advance of an earthquake hitting. The system is currently only able to release an alert 10 seconds prior to the beginning of an earthquake.
假如发生地震，最可能的原因是圣安地列斯断层断裂，这条断层从洛杉矶起贯穿加州南部。但是至于哪一个才是震源，现在仍有疑问。一些报告称，"超级震"的震源将在旧金山湾区和旧金山附近的海沃断层。无论震源是哪里，这场地震都会给整个加州和西海岸的其他地区带来巨大破坏。300名科学家为应急方案设计了一个"现实危机场景"，并且根据历史数据，利用计算机预测详细描述了地震的发生和破坏程度。根据计算机的预测，地震产生的地震波速度为每小时11600公里（7200英里/小时），会对主要的高速公路和建筑造成严重的破坏。总而言之，由于一定数量的干枯灌木丛会使任意一点火苗变成熊熊大火，因此对于任何一场大地震来说，最大的隐患便是火灾。白宫为一支由加利福尼亚理工学院、加州大学伯克利分校和华盛顿大学组成的专家团队拨款五百万美金，用于完善地震早期预警系统，使其预警的时间能提前至震前一分钟。这一系统目前只能在震前10秒钟发布预警。
1.Major Solar Storm--2015-2025
1.2015-2025年，大型太阳风暴
The biggest natural disaster that could affect Earth in the near future doesn't even originate from our planet; it comes from the Sun.
在不久的将来，对地球影响最大的自然灾害甚至不是来自地球本身，而是来自太阳。
The Sun has an "activity cycle," which means that it has either decreased or increased activity, such as solar flares and sunspots, depending on its time in a particular cycle. The most recent major burst of solar activity occurred in July 2012, when a coronal mass ejection (CME) passed through Earth's orbit and hit the STEREO-A space station. A CME is the solar ejection of a billion-ton cloud of magnetized plasma that harbors the unfortunate side effect of acting as an electromagnetic pulse on Earth's electronics, taking them out of working order. A solar storm usually contains a solar flare, high levels of UV radiation, energetic particles that destroy the crucial electronic components of satellites, and many CMEs. The 2012 solar flare hit the space station but was only a week's time away from hitting Earth instead. This lucky miss for Earth may not repeat itself in the near future according to Pete Riley, a scientist at Predictive Science, Inc. After analyzing solar storm records from the past 50 years, his calculations concluded that there is a 12 percent chance of a major solar storm hitting Earth in the next 10 years. If this were to happen, it would potentially interfere with radio, GPS, and satellite communications, affecting the use of millions of electronics around the world. Power grids would also be affected due to power surges caused by the energetic particles, possibly causing major worldwide blackouts similar to the one that occurred in Quebec in 1989. The economic costs are estimated to be $1–2 trillion in the first year of impact, with a full recovery taking 4–10 years according to the National Research Council. However, a catastrophic solar storm may not occur in the near future. Even if one did occur, it may not be as impactful as some are predicting according to Robert Rutledge and the forecast office at the NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center. The predictions being made are the "worst-case scenario" viewpoint and are merely a warning against catastrophe. That said, major power companies and worldwide first response services are aware of the effects of solar activity and are investing heavily to defend against them.
太阳有一个"活动周期"，这意味着在一个特定的时间周期内，太阳耀斑和太阳黑子等活动可能会减少或者增加。最近的一次大型太阳活动发生在2012年7月，日冕物质抛射(CME)穿过地球轨道并撞向日地关系天文台STEREO-A空间站。日冕物质抛射是十亿吨磁化等离子体物质从太阳中被抛射出来，它会造成诸多不良影响，例如电磁脉冲干扰地球上的电力设施，使其不能正常工作。太阳风暴通常包括太阳耀斑、高强度的紫外线辐射以及能够摧毁卫星关键电子元件的高能粒子和大量的日冕物质抛射。2012年这场太阳耀斑袭击了空间站，但它的爆发时间晚了一周，使地球躲过一劫。预测科学公司的科学家皮特·莱立认为，对于地球来说，这样幸运的"错过"在不久的将来将不复存在。通过分析过去50年太阳风暴的记录，他得出结论：在未来10年内，大型太阳风暴袭击地球的几率将是12%。假设这场风暴发生，它可能会干扰无线电、GPS和卫星通信，影响世界各地数百万电子产品的使用。电网也会受到高能粒子所产生的电涌的影响，可能发生类似于1989年魁北克那样的大停电。根据美国国家研究委员会，这场风暴会在第一年造成约1 – 2万亿美元的经济损失，而要实现全面恢复需要4到10年时间。然而，这样一场灾难性的太阳风暴可能不会在近期发生。根据罗伯特·特里奇和美国国家海洋和大气管理局预测办公室/空间气象预测中心的预测，即便风暴发生，其影响可能也不会像某些人预测的那样严重。这些预测基于"最坏的情况"，仅仅是针对大灾难的预警。即便如此，大型电力公司和全球第一应急服务公司都意识到了太阳活动的影响，并大量投资，加强防御。
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