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中国IT四巨头BANT挑战美国FANG

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Incisive Chinese companies have long been sinking their teeth into their western rivals. Now the country has developed its answer to the “Fangs” phenomenon, one of the remaining crown jewels of the west.

雄心勃勃的中国企业早已将尖牙深深地嵌入西方竞争对手的身体。如今,中国已经找到了对付西方王冠上仅剩的宝石之一“FANG”的办法。“FANG”指Facebook、亚马逊(Amazon)、Netflix与谷歌(Google)四家互联网公司(尴尬的是,谷歌已改名为Alphabet)。

The internet-focused quartet of Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google (now renamed Alphabet, awkwardly) saw their share prices surge more than 70 per cent, on average, last year, even as the wider US stock market fell.

去年,虽然美国股市普遍呈现跌势,但FANG的股价平均大涨逾70%。

Now China is responding with its very own quartet of Bants — Baidu, Alibaba, Netease and Tencent.

如今,中国正以自己的四巨头“BANT”——百度(Baidu)、阿里巴巴(Alibaba)、网易(Netease)与腾讯(Tencent)——予以回应。

Since 2013, emerging market equity funds have quadrupled their exposure to China’s new Gang of Four to more than 4 per cent, equivalent to $11bn, according to data from Copley Fund Research, which tracks 121 EM equity funds with combined assets of $235bn.

根据Copley Fund Research公司的数据,自2013年以来,新兴市场股票型基金对中国新“四巨头”的敞口已经翻了两番,配置比例超过4%,相当于110亿美元。Copley跟踪资产规模合计为2350亿美元的121只新兴市场股票型基金。

Tencent has led the way, with its weighting in the average EM fund rising fourfold to more than 2 per cent since 2011, but Alibaba has shown explosive growth of late, as the first chart shows.

如下面的图一所示,腾讯一路领先,自2011年以来,该公司在新兴市场股票基金中的平均配置权重上涨3倍,超过了2%,但阿里巴巴最近呈现爆炸式增长。

“You can draw parallels to the Fang stocks in the US being, as they are, a mixture of internet search, social networks and ecommerce companies. These four stocks are starting to dominate things in the internet space in emerging markets,” says Steven Holden, founder of Copley.

Copley创始人史蒂文霍尔登(Steven Holden)说:“这四家公司包含了互联网搜索、社交网络及电子商务,所以你可以将它们与美国的FANG相比。这四家公司正开始主导新兴市场的互联网空间。”

Gary Greenberg, head of emerging markets at Hermes Investment Management, who has a weighting of 10.8 per cent to the Bants in his Global EM fund, adds: “We think there is growth here that can continue, cash flow generation that is remarkable relative to Chinese old economy industries, along with some real innovation and disruption.

Hermes Investment Management新兴市场主管加里格林伯格(Gary Greenberg)补充道:“我们认为,这四家公司的增长可以持续,产生现金流的能力相对中国旧的经济产业很突出,还有一些真正的创新和颠覆。”格林伯格在自己的全球新兴市场基金中对BANT的配置权重为10.8%。

“Their underlying economy is growing, especially the consumer service sector, disclosure is steadily improving and scepticism among the international community is high [preventing valuations from rising too far],” Mr Greenberg says.

“它们所处的整体经济正在增长,尤其是消费服务业,信息披露也在不断改善,而国际社会的疑虑较高(使得估值没有过度攀高),”格林伯格说。

The rise of the Bants has helped drive a dramatic reshaping of EM equity portfolios since 2012. Allocations to technology stocks in general have risen sharply, hitting a record 20.6 per cent in March, according to Copley, while holdings of energy and materials stocks have slumped in line with plunging commodity prices, as the second chart shows.

自2012年以来,BANT的崛起推动了新兴市场股票投资组合的剧烈重组。Copley的数据显示,科技股的配置比例总体上大幅上升,3月触及创纪录的20.6%,而对能源、材料类股的配置则伴随大宗商品价格的暴跌而锐减(如下面的图二所示)。

Within the internet subsector, which constitutes 6 per cent of the typical EM fund, however, the Chinese heavyweights appear to be elbowing aside their competition.

互联网类股在新兴市场基金配置中平均占比6%,而中国的重量级公司似乎正在挤掉自己的竞争对手。

Chinese companies now account for 83 per cent of EM equity funds’ internet holdings, with Russia and South Korea accounting for a further 10 per cent between them.

目前,中国企业占新兴市场股票基金互联网资产的83%,俄罗斯与韩国加起来占10%。

However, the latter are on the slide, with the rise of Bants largely supplanting ownership of more established internet names such as Naver, South Korea’s biggest internet portal operator, and Mail.ru, the internet group controlled by Russian billionaire Alisher Usmanov, Mr Holden says. (For those who get hot under the collar about South Korea being classed as an emerging market, equity investors are largely guided by the MSCI EM index, which includes the likes of South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore.)

然而,霍尔登表示,俄罗斯与韩国的占比还在下降,因为BANT的崛起很大程度上取代了历史更悠久的互联网公司的份额,例如韩国最大的互联网门户网站运营商Naver,以及俄罗斯亿万富翁阿利舍尔乌斯马诺夫(Alisher Usmanov)控制的互联网集团Mail.ru。(有人会对将韩国归为新兴市场感到不满,但股票投资机构大都根据MSCI明晟新兴市场指数进行投资,该指数纳入了韩国、台湾和新加坡)。

“What is becoming clear is the emergence of a ‘big four’ [which] are starting to dominate the sector,” says Mr Holden, with 79 per cent of EM funds holding at least one of the Bants.

霍尔登表示,“越来越清楚的是‘四大’的崛起,它们正开始主导这一行业”, 79%的新兴市场基金持有BANT中至少一家的股票。

Funds managed by Oppenheimer, William Blair, Calamos, Columbia and Delaware as well as Hermes, each have an exposure of at least 8 per cent to the Bants, while Edinburgh-based Baillie Gifford leads the way with weightings of 13.3 per cent and 12.8 per cent respectively in its EM Leading Companies and EM Growth funds respectively.

奥本海默(Oppenheimer)、威廉布莱尔(William Blair)、Calamos、哥伦比亚(Columbia)、特拉华(Delaware)及Hermes等公司管理的基金,每只都对BANT至少有8%的敞口,而总部位于爱丁堡的Baillie Gifford公司处于领先,其“新兴市场领先企业基金”(EM Leading Companies)和“新兴市场成长基金”(EM Growth)的BANT权重分别为13.3%和12.8%。

Richard Sneller, head of emerging market equities at Baillie Gifford, told EM Squared this year that “in many emerging markets the speed with which young consumers are adapting to technological change, in areas such as ecommerce and online shopping, is much faster than in the US.

Baillie Gifford新兴市场股票主管理查德斯内勒(Richard Sneller)今年对英国《金融时报》“直击新兴市场”栏目(EM Squared)表示,“在电子商务和在线购物等领域,许多新兴市场的年轻消费者适应技术变革的速度比美国要快得多。”

“Trends that we hoped would emerge 15-20 years ago have come to generate significant cash flows.”

“我们在15至20年前希望出现的趋势,已开始产生大量的现金流。”

The surge in demand for the Bants was in part a response to MSCI’s decision to include some companies listed outside the emerging markets in its flagship EM index.

BANT受到热捧,部分是因为MSCI明晟决定将一些在新兴市场以外上市的公司纳入其旗舰新兴市场指数。

The move, the first stage of which came into effect in November 2015, brought New York-listed Baidu, Netease and Alibaba into the index for the first time, a move that appears to have particularly boosted the latter.

2015年11月,该决定的第一阶段已生效。在纽约上市的百度、网易和阿里巴巴首次被纳入MSCI明晟新兴市场指数,这似乎尤其增加了阿里巴巴的热度。

“Alibaba has captured the largest number of new investors over the last six months. A net 15 per cent of funds opened new positions including TT International, Schroders and Lazard among others,” says Mr Holden, who calculates that the funds in his database have invested a net $840m in Alibaba in the past half year.

“在过去6个月里,阿里巴巴俘获的新投资者数量最多。净15%的基金建立了对它的新头寸,其中包括TT International、施罗德(Schroders)和瑞德(Lazard)等机构,”霍尔登说。据他计算,他数据库中的基金在过去半年里对阿里巴巴的投资净额达到8.4亿美元。

Mutual funds’ holdings of the Bants could rise to higher levels still, with the index weighting of Alibaba, Baidu and Netease due to rise further in May, when MSCI implements the second and final stage of its plan to fully incorporate such stocks in its EM index.

今年5月,当MSCI明晟执行其计划的第二个、也是最后一个阶段,把这类股票完全纳入其新兴市场指数中时,阿里巴巴、百度和网易的指数权重将进一步加大,所以共同基金对BANT的持股量可能会上升至更高水平。

Mr Greenberg argues that valuations “are not unreasonable” with Tencent trading on 25 times one-year forward earnings, Alibaba at 23 times and Baidu 21 times [he does not hold Netease] “given that their earnings are expected to grow by 25-30 per cent per annum”.

格林伯格指出,“鉴于这些公司的盈利年增速预计可达25%至30%”,它们的估值“并非不合理”,腾讯一年期预期市盈率为25倍,阿里巴巴为23倍,而百度为21倍(他不持有网易股票)。

“These are good businesses at reasonable prices, especially since smartphone usage is increasing and penetration for commerce, advertising and services online is also growing rapidly, providing opportunities for monetisation of the user base,” he adds.

“这些都是价格合理的好公司,尤其是,智能手机的使用在普及,对商业、广告和线上服务的渗透也迅速扩大,提供了利用用户群体赚钱的机遇,”他接着说。

Mr Holden sees other reasons to expect their weighting to rise still further. More than 20 per cent of funds still do not have any exposure to any of these four stocks, with some high-profile managers, such as Aberdeen and First State, eschewing Chinese internet stocks entirely, Mr Holden says.

霍尔登则看到了这些公司的权重预计会进一步提高的其他原因。霍尔登说,逾20%的基金仍没有配置这四只股票中的任何一只,有些名声显赫的基金公司,比如安本(Aberdeen)和首域投资(First State),完全不碰中国互联网企业的股票。

Moreover, the funds in his database are still, in aggregate, underweight both Tencent and Alibaba compared with their index weighting.

另外,总体而言,他的数据库里的基金对腾讯和阿里巴巴的配置比例仍低于这两家公司的指数权重。

“In the face of impressive price action in Tencent, Baidu and Alibaba from the lows of early February, EM funds may find it more difficult to avoid these stocks going forwards,” he says.

“面对腾讯、百度和阿里巴巴股价较2月初低位的大幅上扬,新兴市场基金或许会发现,未来更难避开这些股票,”他说。

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social ['səuʃəl]

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adj. 社会的,社交的
n. 社交聚会

 
incorporate [in'kɔ:pəreit]

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adj. 合并的,公司组织的,具体化的
v.

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innovation [.inəu'veiʃən]

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n. 创新,革新

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collar ['kɔlə]

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n. 衣领,项圈,[机]轴环
vt. 抓住,为

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community [kə'mju:niti]

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n. 社区,社会,团体,共同体,公众,[生]群落

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avoid [ə'vɔid]

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vt. 避免,逃避

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alphabet ['ælfəbit]

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n. 字母表,基本原理(元素),符号系统

 
established [is'tæbliʃt]

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adj. 已被确认的,确定的,建立的,制定的 动词est

 
emergence [i'mə:dʒəns]

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n. 出现,浮现,露出

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funds

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n. 基金;资金,现金(fund的复数) v. 提供资金

 


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