评论
打印
An impending decision on whether or not China’s $6.1tn onshore equity markets should start to be included in the flagship emerging market index is starting to reverberate around the region.
MSCI明晟即将决定是否应开始把中国规模达6.1万亿美元的A股市场纳入其旗舰新兴市场指数。这件事已开始在整个地区产生反响。
South Korea and Taiwan are stepping up their efforts to be promoted from the MSCI EM index to its developed world equivalent. And in the case of Seoul, at least, the fear of an exodus of foreign capital in the wake of China’s admittance appears to be a driving factor.
韩国和台湾正加紧努力，争取从MSCI新兴市场指数(MSCI EM index)晋级到其发达市场指数。至少就韩国而言，这么做的一项可能原因是，担心A股被纳入MSCI新兴市场指数后外国资本会撤出韩国。
At present China, through the Hong Kong market and the American depositary receipts of US-listed companies such as Alibaba, accounts for 24 per cent of the MSCI EM index, with South Korea and Taiwan the next largest constituents, at 16 per cent and 12 per cent respectively.
目前，中国股票（指在香港上市的中国公司股票以及阿里巴巴(Alibaba)等在美上市中国公司的美国存托凭证）在MSCI新兴市场指数中权重为24%，韩国和台湾紧随其后，分别为16%和12%。
However, if China’s Shanghai and Shenzhen-based A-shares market was included, China’s weight, based on current market capitalisations, would jump to about 40 per cent, pushing South Korea and Taiwan down to 12.9 per cent and 9.7 per cent respectively.
但如果上海和深圳的A股市场被纳入到该指数中，基于当前的市值，中国的权重将飙升至40%左右，韩国和台湾的权重将分别降至12.9%和9.7%。
Given that the index is currently tracked by $1.5tn of assets, according to MSCI, if investors did not increase their EM allocation in the wake of China’s inclusion, this could lead to outflows of $46bn from the Seoul market and $35bn from Taiwan.
据MSCI称，目前有1.5万亿美元资产追踪该指数，如果投资者不在A股被纳入后增配新兴市场，将导致460亿美元资金流出韩国股市、350亿美元流出台湾股市。
This would not happen overnight. MSCI is due to rule on whether or not to start adding China’s A-shares to its EM index next month. Even if the answer is positive, as many observers predict, there will be a 12-month delay and even then Shanghai and Shenzhen stocks will only be drip-fed into the index, starting with just 5 per cent of their full weight.
情况不会一夜之间就变成这样。MSCI定于下月就是否开始将A股纳入其新兴市场指数做出决定。即便如很多观察人士预言的那样决定纳入，也要等到12个月后才会纳入，而且届时只会一点一点地纳入，一开始纳入的将仅为A股全部体量的5%。
Nevertheless, the seemingly inevitable entry of the juggernaut of China’s onshore markets into the index is already making others nervous.
尽管如此，A股这个庞然大物被纳入该指数似乎是不可避免。这一前景已令其他人感到担忧。
The Korea Times reported last month that the Korean government “believes joining the [developed market] World Index will avoid competition with China in the same group”.
上月《韩国时报》(Korea Times)报道称，韩国政府“认为加入世界指数（MSCI追踪发达市场的指数）可避免与中国同组竞争”。
South Korea is already ranked as a developed country by FTSE and S&P, two rival index providers but, as Arthur Kwong, head of Asia Pacific equities at BNP Paribas Investment Partners, points out, “the focus is always on MSCI. That is the market that can move liquidity.”
韩国已被另两家指数供应商富时(FTSE)和标准普尔(S&P)列为发达国家，但正如法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)亚太股市主管邝乐天(Arthur Kwong)所言：“焦点永远是MSCI。这是一个能驱动流动性的市场。”
