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China’s foreign exchange reserves dropped more sharply than expected in October, falling to their lowest level in more than five years, according to data from the People’s Bank of China.
中国央行(PBoC)的数据显示，10月中国外汇储备下降大于预期，降至五年多来最低水平。
Reserves were $3.121tn, a level last reached in March 2011. The monthly decline amounted to $45.7bn, bigger than economists had forecast, with the scale of drop the largest since January when markets were thrown off course by concerns about China’s economy slowing down and a falling oil price.
中国外汇储备为3.121万亿美元，上次达到这一水平是在2011年3月。月度下降457亿美元，大于经济学家们此前的预测，为1月以来最大月度下降。1月时，中国经济放缓和油价暴跌引起担忧，全球金融市场陷入震荡。
Peter Kinsella, emerging markets FX strategist at Commerzbank, said the decline in FX reserves was consistent with the development of dollar-renminbi exchange rates during October.
德国商业银行(Commerzbank)新兴市场外汇策略师彼得.金塞拉(Peter Kinsella)表示，10月份中国外汇储备下降符合美元兑人民币汇率的走势。
“What’s interesting is that the decline coincided with an even larger decline in Chinese reserve assets. This, in my view, points to the possibility of capital outflows being larger than the decline in FX reserves suggests,” he said.
“有趣的是，与这一下降同时发生的是中国储备资产甚至更大幅度的下降。在我看来，这指向了一种可能性，即资本外流高于外汇储备下降所暗示的水平，”他说。
Analysts see the PBoC’s monthly reserves data as a proxy for currency intervention, and interpret the central bank’s need to intervene as a sign that it is worried the renminbi is weakening too far.
分析师们把中国央行的月度外汇储备数据视为汇市干预的一个风向标，并把中国央行的干预需要视为一个迹象，表明其担心人民币过度走弱。
Jens Nordvig, chief executive of the analytics consultants Exante Data, said the scale of central bank FX intervention was a worrying development.
分析咨询机构Exante Data的首席执行官延斯.诺德维克(Jens Nordvig)表示，中国央行对汇市的干预程度是令人担忧的。
“There are notable cracks emerging under the surface: the fairly orderly depreciation of the Chinese currency over the past few weeks has been achieved only in the face of an aggressive currency intervention by the Chinese central bank,” said Mr Nordvig.
“表面之下正出现明显的裂缝：过去几周人民币相当有序的贬值，只是在中国央行大举干预汇市的情况下实现的，”诺德维克说。
The renminbi weakened by a quarter of a per cent yesterday, although attention in the FX market is fixed on the US election. The dollar has been strengthening against most currencies as investor expectation of a Hillary Clinton victory strengthens, and the renminbi was not immune from that effect.
昨日，人民币汇率下跌了0.25%，尽管美国大选才是外汇市场的关注焦点。美元随着投资者对于希拉里.克林顿(Hillary Clinton)胜选预期的升高而加强，人民币并未免受这一局面的影响。
Dollar-renminbi currency options are at their lowest in more than a year, said Mr Nordvig, a sign that the market expected stable FX market conditions in China.
诺德维克表示，目前人民币兑美元汇率期权处于一年多来低点，表明市场预期中国外汇市场状况将保持稳定。
However the US election poses problems for the PBoC, particularly if the dollar rallies further on the back of a Clinton victory and a likely tightening of Federal Reserve policy next month.
然而，美国大选给中国央行带来不少麻烦，尤其是如果希拉里获胜美元进一步上扬，以及美联储(Fed)下月可能收紧政策的话。
