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The dollar value of exports from emerging market countries will rise next year for the first time since 2014, helped by higher commodity prices and modestly stronger demand, it is predicted.
据预测，在大宗商品价格上涨和需求温和上升的推动下，2017年以美元计的新兴市场国家出口额将出现自2014年以来的首次增长。
The recovery may help allay some of the gloom around emerging market countries, many of which used strong export growth as a springboard for rapid economic advancement in the early years of this century, before the export boom turned to bust.
出口复苏可能在一定程度上化解人们对于新兴市场国家的悲观看法。在本世纪初的那些年，许多新兴市场国家曾把出口强劲增长作为经济快速发展的跳板，后来出口由盛转衰了。
“We will see a lot of headlines about [emerging market export growth] picking up in the first half of 2017,” says Bhanu Baweja, head of EM cross asset strategy at UBS, who believes EM exports will show year-on-year growth of between 8 and 13 per cent in dollar terms in the first quarter of this year, “a complete postcode away” from the negative numbers currently being reported.
“2017年上半年，我们将看到许多头条新闻报道（新兴市场出口增长）提速，”瑞银(UBS)新兴市场跨资产战略部门主管巴努?巴韦贾(Bhanu Baweja)表示。他认为，今年第一季度新兴市场出口（以美元计）将同比增长8%至13%，“完全摆脱”目前报道的负增长。
Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics, adds: “We expect that the performance of EM exports will continue to improve in 2017, with export values rising modestly in year-on-year terms.”
凯投宏观(Capital Economics)首席亚洲经济学家马克?威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)补充道：“我们预计，2017年新兴市场出口的表现将继续改善，出口值会同比温和增长。”
Emerging market exports have been declining in dollar terms since October 2014, a far longer, if less extreme, losing streak than during the 2008-09 global financial crisis, as the first chart shows.
自2014年10月以来，新兴市场出口额（以美元计算）一直下降，即使没有2008年至2009年全球金融危机期间的下降幅度极端，也比当时持续的时间要长得多，如第一张图表所示。
This slide in the dollar value of exports has entirely been a price effect, driven by lower commodity prices. In volume terms, emerging market exports have continued to rise since 2014, even if volume growth in year-on-year terms has moderated to around 2 per cent, a fraction of the double-digit rates witnessed either side of the global financial crisis, as the second chart shows.
新兴市场出口额（以美元计算）下滑完全是一种价格效应，受到大宗商品价格下降的拖累。从数量上看，新兴市场出口自2014年以来一直持续上升，即便同比年增长率已放缓至2%左右——远远低于全球金融危机前后的两位数增长率，如第二张图表所示。
In contrast, the average unit price of emerging market exports has been falling in year-on-year terms pretty much since mid-2012, hitting a year-on-year decline of 16.4 per cent in February 2016.
相比之下，新兴市场出口的平均单价差不多自2012年中以来就一直呈同比下降趋势，2016年2月同比降幅达到16.4%。
With the prices of most commodities having recovered somewhat since February 2016, the year-on-year fall in unit prices has slowed to around 5 per cent.
大多数大宗商品的价格自2016年2月以来有所回升，单位价格的同比降幅已收窄至约5%。
As a result, in the first 10 months of 2016, the year-on-year decline in EM exports in dollar terms was just 6.6 per cent, according to calculations by Capital Economics, a marked improvement on the 11.6 per cent contraction seen in 2015, as the third chart illustrates.
因此，根据凯投宏观的计算，在2016年头10个月，新兴市场出口额（以美元计算）的同比降幅仅为6.6%，较2015年11.6%的降幅有了明显改善，如第三张图表所示。
Mr Williams notes that early November data from the likes of Brazil, Vietnam, Taiwan and Chile suggests the picture has continued to improve since October.
威廉姆斯指出，来自巴西、越南、台湾和智利的11月初数据表明，出口形势自10月以来持续改善。
With Capital Economics estimating that global economic growth will edge up to 2.8 per cent this year, from 2.5 per cent in 2016, “the exports of the emerging world’s net commodity exporters should rise by about 20 per cent year-on-year in dollar terms,” he argues.
威廉姆斯指出，据凯投宏观估计，全球经济增长率将从2016年的2.5%上升至今年的2.8%，“新兴世界的大宗商品净出口国的出口额（以美元计算）同比增长应会达到20%左右。”
The impact will also ripple out to some net commodity importers, Mr Williams believes, with higher commodity prices likely to boost the price of resource-intensive manufactured goods such as steel, bolstering the value of exports from the like of South Korea.
威廉姆斯认为，这些影响也将波及到一些大宗商品净进口国，大宗商品价格上涨可能提高资源密集型制成品（如钢铁）的价格，提振韩国等国的出口产品价值。
Mr Baweja agrees with this conclusion, noting that both South Korea and India, another net commodity importer, are exporters of refined oil products, the dollar value of which should rise this year.
巴韦贾同意这一结论，他指出，韩国和另一个大宗商品净进口国印度，都是成品油的出口国。以美元计算，这些成品油的价值今年应会上升。
But although he foresees a “noticeable pick-up in exports” in the first quarter of 2017, the UBS man is keen to play down any euphoria. He believes year-on-year growth will weaken and maybe even turn negative by the second half of 2017 because “volume is not picking up in a big way and the base effect [of last year’s weak commodity prices] will fall off” during the course of 2017.
但是，尽管他预计2017年第一季度的“出口会显著回升”，这位瑞银人士强调不要过于乐观。他认为，同比增长将会减弱，甚至可能在2017年下半年变为负增长，因为在2017年全年，“出口量不会大幅增长，而（去年大宗商品价格疲软）的基数效应将会减弱”。
In terms of the volume of exports from emerging markets, Mr Baweja would not rule out growth of around 4-5 per cent. But while this would represent a modest improvement on recent years, growth at this rate would still be “in the bottom quartile over the long-term distribution, even maybe the second decile”, given that median growth has been about 7 per cent a year over the past 25 years.
在新兴市场出口量方面，巴韦贾不排除增长约4%至5%的可能性。但是，尽管与近年来相比这将是一种温和改善，但这一增长速度仍“处于长期分布中的最差25%区间，甚至可能是最差20%区间”，因为过去25年的年增长率中值约为7%。
Mr Baweja’s extensive analysis on the changing nature of globalisation suggests the prime factor behind the weakness of global trade growth (which for a long time expanded at twice the rate of global GDP) has been a slowdown in investment.
巴韦贾对全球化不断变化的性质的深度分析显示，全球贸易增长疲软背后的主要因素是投资减速。全球贸易增速曾在很长一段时间内是全球GDP增速的两倍。
With this in mind, he does anticipate a pick-up in US investment “because it has been so weak — we don’t normally see it grow at a lower pace than consumption except in a recession”.
就这一点而言，他预计美国投资会回升，“因为投资一直太弱——除非在经济衰退期，我们通常不会看到投资增长低于消费增长”。
However, this may be balanced by a decline in European and Chinese investment, with the impact of the latter on global trade heightened if China was to engineer a partial switch from investment in resource-heavy construction to forms of infrastructure spending such as water purification that are not very commodity intensive.
然而，这可能被欧洲和中国的投资下滑抵消，如果中国打算在一定程度上由投资于资源耗费高的建设项目，转向投资于水净化等对大宗商品依赖不强的基础设施项目，那么中国投资对全球贸易的影响将会加大。
Mr Williams’ medium to long-term view is arguably more gloomy than that of Mr Baweja. He believes the 25-30 year period during which growth in global exports far exceeded that of global GDP, represented a “surge of globalisation that has come to an end”. In other words, the current slowdown in trade growth is structural, not cyclical.
威廉姆斯的中长期观点可能比巴韦贾更为悲观。他认为，全球出口增速在25至30年的时间里远高于全球GDP增速，意味着“全球化快速发展已经结束”。换句话说，目前的贸易增长放缓是结构性的，而不是周期性的。
“Through the second half of the 20th century we had this big dispersion of trade and economic activity around the world. All this specialisation meant exports rose faster than GDP,” Mr Williams says.
“整个20世纪下半叶，在世界各地，贸易和经济增速都出现了这么大的差异。所有的专业化分工都意味着出口增长快于GDP增长，”威廉姆斯说。
With China now not only “fully integrated”, but perhaps starting to retreat from this position as it brings more of its supply chain onshore, unless Africa can succeed in following China’s path, he adds: “I think we are going back now to a situation where we don’t think there is any particular reason for trade to grow faster than GDP.”
中国现在不仅“完全与世界一体化”，还可能正在开始退出这一状态，把供应链的更多环节带回国内，因此除非非洲能够成功地走上中国道路，否则“我想，现在我们将回到这样一种情形：我们认为没有任何特殊原因支持贸易增速超过GDP增速，”他补充说。
Other commentators, such as Raoul Leering, head of international trade analysis at ING, the Dutch financial group, fear the outlook is bleak even in the short term.
其他评论家，如荷兰金融集团荷兰国际集团(ING)国际贸易分析主管拉乌尔?里尔宁(Raoul Leering)担心，即使从短期来看，前景也很暗淡。
Citing recent figures from the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Policy Analysis, that show global trade in seasonally-adjusted volume terms fell 1.1 per cent between September and October, Mr Leering suggests last year will prove to be the worst year for world trade since 2009.
里尔宁援引了荷兰经济政策分析局(CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)的最新数据，数据显示，9月至10月经季节性调整的全球贸易量下降了1.1%，他表示，去年将被证明是世界贸易自2009年以来表现最糟糕的一年。
Moreover, a “turnaround in the short run is unlikely”, given China’s efforts to rebalance its economy from exports towards consumption (thereby reducing demand for imports of intermediate inputs), reinforced by “government policy to stimulate the use of domestic suppliers” and rising protectionism elsewhere, he argues.
此外，他指出，鉴于中国正在努力推动本国经济从出口转向消费的再平衡（从而减少对中间投入品的进口需求），再加上“中国政府鼓励使用国内供应商的政策”和其他地区保护主义的兴起，“全球贸易在短期内不太可能回暖”。
“Since these developments will not fade overnight, there is little hope for a trade revival in 2017,” says Mr Leering.
“由于这些情况不会一夜间消失，2017年贸易基本没有希望复苏，”里尔宁说。
