The global bond market sell-off deepened on Monday, lifting the 10-year US Treasury yield above 2.7 per cent for the first time in nearly four years and sparking concerns that the roaring stock market rally could be vulnerable to a reversal.
全球债券市场的抛售周一加剧,10年期美国国债收益率近4年来首次超过2.7%,引发人们对于股市飙升可能逆转的担心。
Mounting optimism over the strength of the world economy has buoyed equities, which have enjoyed their best start to a year since 1987, but stirred concerns that long-dormant inflation might finally make a comeback and force central banks to turn more aggressive.
人们对世界经济走强日益乐观的情绪近期推高了股市。今年是自1987年以来股市开局表现最好的一年,但这也引发了人们的担忧:即长期蛰伏的通胀也许终于会卷土重来,迫使各国央行变得更加激进。
However, some investors and analysts are now questioning how long bond yields can continue to rise without puncturing the mounting euphoria in global stock markets.
不过,一些投资者和分析师现在开始提问,长期债券收益率持续升高,怎么会戳不破人们对于全球股市日益加剧的兴奋情绪?
Rising bond yields make borrowing more expensive, potentially straining some companies that have been relying on cheap money to grow.
债券收益率不断上升将推高借款成本,可能将一些依赖廉价资金实现增长的公司置于困境。
The FTSE All-World index fell by 0.5 per cent on Monday, its worst performance since mid-November, and Goldman Sachs’ chief global equity strategist Peter Oppenheimer warned in a note that “a correction is becoming increasingly likely”, exacerbating concerns that a reversal is overdue.
富时环球指数(FTSE All World Index)周一下跌0.5%,为去年11月中旬以来最糟糕表现。高盛(Goldman Sachs)首席全球股票策略师彼得奥本海默(Peter Oppenheimer)在一份简报中警告称,“股市回调正变得越来越有可能”,这加剧了人们对于行情逆转早就应该到来的担忧。
“It all feels a little bit euphoric,” said Larry Hatheway, chief economist at GAM, the investment group. “It has led to a lot of people thinking that we should prepare the groundwork for some risk mitigation strategies. This can’t go on forever.”
“这一切让人感觉有点欣快过头,”投资集团GAM的首席经济学家拉里夏德威(Larry Hatheway)说,“这导致很多人认为,我们应该为一些风险缓解策略做好铺垫。这波行情不会永远持续下去。”
Investors now expect the Federal Reserve to follow through on its plans to raise interest rates three times this year, and the European Central Bank is forecast to end its crisis-era stimulus programme. There is also nervousness that the Bank of Japan could scale back some of its ultra-aggressive stimulus later in 2018.
投资者现在预计美联储(Fed)今年将执行其加息三次的计划,并预计欧洲央行(ECB)将结束危机时期的刺激计划。还有人担心,日本央行(BoJ)可能会在2018年晚些时候缩减一部分极端激进的刺激措施。
That lifted the 10-year US Treasury yield, the most widely watched interest rate in the global economy, by 5 basis points to a peak of 2.73 per cent on Monday, the highest since April 2014. The 10-year German Bund climbed 7bp to 0.69 per cent, lifting the five-year Bund yield back into positive territory for the first time since November 2015.
这使得10年期美国国债收益率(全球经济中最受关注的利率)在周一上升5个基点,至2.73%的峰值,为2014年4月以来最高水平。10年期德国国债收益率攀升7个基点,至0.69%,5年期德国国债收益率自2015年11月以来首次回到正值区间。