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Extreme cold still happens in a warming world
全球变暖 极端寒冷事件依旧频发
Extremely cold Arctic air and severe winter weather swept southward into much of the U.S. in mid-January 2024, breaking daily low temperature records from Montana to Texas.
2024年1月中旬，极端寒冷的北极气流和恶劣的冬季天气向南席卷了美国大部分地区，打破了从蒙大拿州到得克萨斯州的日最低气温纪录。
Tens of millions of people were affected by dangerously cold temperatures, and heavy lake-effect snow and snow squalls have had severe effects across the Great Lakes and Northeast regions.
数千万人受到危险低温的影响，严重冷流降雪和暴风雪对五大湖和东北部地区造成了严重影响。
No single weather event can prove or disprove global warming.
任何单一的天气事件都不能证明或否定全球变暖的事实。
Many studies have shown that the number of extreme cold events is clearly decreasing with global warming.
许多研究表明，随着全球变暖，极端寒冷事件的数量明显减少。
Whether global warming may, contrary to expectations, be playing some supporting role in the intensity of these events is an open question.
全球变暖是否会与预期相反，对这些事件的强度起到一定的辅助作用，这还是一个未解之谜。
Some research suggests it does.
尽管一些研究表明确实如此。
More recently, for large areas of the U.S., Europe and Northeast Asia, while the number of these severe cold events is clearly decreasing – as expected with global warming – it does not appear that their intensity is correspondingly decreasing, despite the rapid warming in their Arctic source regions.
最近，在美国、欧洲和东北亚的大部分地区，尽管这些严寒事件的数量明显减少——符合全球变暖的预期——但其强度似乎并没有因北极源头地区的快速变暖而相应减弱。
So, while the world can expect fewer of these severe cold events in the future, many regions need to remain prepared for exceptional cold when it does occur.
因此，尽管全球可以预期未来此类严寒事件会减少，但许多地区仍需为可能出现的极端严寒天气做好准备。
A better understanding of the pathways of influence between Arctic surface conditions, the stratospheric polar vortex and mid-latitude winter weather would improve our ability to anticipate these events and their severity.
更好地了解北极地表条件、平流层极地涡旋和中纬度冬季天气之间的影响途径，将提高人们预测这些事件及其严重性的能力。
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