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And yet, in spite of that, artificial life support has been successful. Barely a year after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, financial markets have stabilized, stock markets have rebounded, and the economy is showing signs recovery. People want to return to business as usual and think of the Crash of 2008 as a bad dream.
而尽管如此，人工生命保障系统还是成功地起了作用。在雷曼兄弟破产仅一年时间后，金融市场就稳定下来。股市反弹，经济开始出现复苏迹象。人们想恢复到正常的经济生活中，而把2008年经济崩溃看成是一场噩梦。
I regret to tell you that the recovery is liable to out of steam and may even be followed by a "double dip" although I am not sure whether it will be in 2010 or 2011.
很遗憾地告诉大家，经济复苏的进程可能会减缓，甚至可能出现“再次衰退”，尽管我还不确定它会发生在2010年还是 2011 年。
My views are far from unique but they are at variance with the prevailing mood. The longer the turnaround lasts the more people will come to believe in it, but in my judgment, the prevailing mood is far removed from reality. This is characteristic of far-from-equilibrium situations when perceptions tend to lag behind reality. To complicate matters, the lag works in both directions. Most people have not yet realized that this crisis is different from previous ones — that we are at the end of an era. Others including me failed to anticipate the extent of the rebound. The confusion is not confined to the financial sphere; it extends to the entire international arena.
我的观点绝不是异端，但的确与众不同。周期持续的时间越长，相信它的人就越多。但是，在我看来，大众的想法与现实还是有很大差距的。这正是“远离平衡状态”的典型特征，即认知滞后于现实。更为复杂的是，滞后体现在两个方向。大多数人还没有意识到这次危机不同于以往，没有认识到我们处于一个时代的尾声；而其他人，包括我在内，未能预见到经济反弹的程度。这种混乱状况不仅局限于金融领域，而且还波及整个国际舞台。
