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Thank you. In these lectures, I have offered a conceptual framework for a better understanding of human events. These events are not determined by timelessly valid scientific laws. Such laws exist, of course, but they are not sufficient to determine the course of events. The complexity of the situations is one reason, and the role of the participants' thinking is another.
谢谢大家。在这个系列讲座中，我为更好地理解人类活动设计了一个 概念性的框架。这些活动并不是由永恒不变的正确的科学定律所决定的。当然，这种定律的确存在，但它们还不足以主宰活动的进程。原因之一是环境的复杂性，而参与者思维的作用是其另一个原因。
I have focused on the reflective, two-way connection between the participants' thinking and reality, and I emphasized the causal role that misunderstandings and misconceptions play in shaping reality. But these influences have been strangely ignored. They introduce an element of uncertainty into the subject matter which, except in the simplest situations, make it impossible to predict the future.
我重点解释了参与者的思维与现实之间反射性的双向联系。我强调了错误理解和错误概念在塑造现实中所起的因果作用。但这些影响都被人们莫名其妙地忽略掉了，而正是这些影响，给事物掺入了一些不确定因素。因此，除了极其简单的情况外，预测未来变得不太可能。
One can still sketch out various plausible scenarios and evaluate their likelihood. One can also prescribe desirable outcomes, I have done both, many times. Indeed, I can claim to be a specialist in it, focusing on predictions as an investor and prescriptions as a philanthropist I have been successful enough in the former to be able to afford the latter. I should like to devote today's discussion to this dual task.
但我们依然可以拟定出各种可能的方案并对其进行可行性评估，也可以采取措施，达到我们想要的结果。我在这两方面都已经尝试了很多次。的确，我可以说自己很在行。作为投资者，我善于预测；作为公益慈善家，我主要为问题提供解决方案；作为投资者，我很成功，并能够借此支持我的慈善活动。那么今天的演讲，我就想从这两个方面来展开。
