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So it's always interesting to think through what you yourself would do differently if the price of your soda went up by 15 to 20%
你们可以想象，汽水涨价15-20%后你们会怎么做
This may mean for some people one less soda a day.
有些人一天可能少喝一支，
It may mean smaller sodas
有些人可能会喝较小瓶的苏打水
But the idea, as the economists looked at how we make decisions in relationship to our consumption of sugary beverages
经济学家通过消费者购买行为进行分析认为
this 15 to 20% increase is thought to be related to about an 8 to 10% decrease in consumption of beverages
15-20%的涨价将会导致消费量8-10%的下降
From a state's perspective, this is supposed to be revenue generating
从各州观点来看，这能增加税收
So it's supposed to generate revenue that would actually go into public health efforts that are important for the state
这让公共健康领域有更多资金可以投入，这对州很有好处
But they would get this added benefit that by reducing soda consumption, hopefully we would reduce diabetes across the state
除此之外还能减少汽水消费量，进而减少州内的糖尿病患病率
This is our estimates when we've looked at the proposed tax for the state of California
根据加州的提议税收，这是我们的估算数据
We know that when people choose to drink less soda they might do a variety of different things. They might choose to drink water
人们减少汽水饮用后可能选择喝水做替代
They might choose to drink milk
可能选择喝牛奶
They might choose to substitute in other ways
可能选择其它替代方式
And so it doesn't mean that just because you stopped drinking soda. You're not going to drink other things that have calories in them
当然，就算停止喝汽水也不能保证替代品不含卡路里
So part of thinking through what would actually happen depends upon what people do to substitute the soda that they're now not drinking
所以研究时还要考虑人们采用什么替代饮品
We estimated 10 to 20% reduction and different ideas for how much people would compensate for their caloric intake if they reduce their soda intake
我们对替代品按卡路里含量进行分类并按照汽水10-20%的减少量进行了计算
And based even on conservative estimates
这里还是保守计算
this proposed tax policy in our estimation could result in a decrease in diabetes in the state of California from between 3 to 7% over the next 10 years
提案的税收政策会使得加州未来10年内，糖尿病发病率减少3-7%
And these are small but actually really quite striking numbers when one thinks that this is the result of a fairly low tax on a beverage that
这个数字不大，但效果也足够明显,因为饮料税还相对较低
is really not contributing much to our nutritional intake anyway That would result in small changes in the consumption of these products
几乎不会影响到营养摄取只会让汽水消费量少量变化
and would really have a dramatic impact on a very real undramatic unless diabetes
这对其它影响都不大，除了糖尿病
And so it's these types of numbers that really let legislators in California and across the country to really consider this type of taxation is an important public health measure for their states
正是这些数字让加州乃至全国的立法者注意到这种税收对各州的公共健康非常重要
So we've seen that sugary beverages are associated with high energy intake
小结一下，含糖饮料关系到高能量摄取
These are of course low nutrient foods. They are associated with increased weight gain and an increased risk of diabetes and cardiovascular disease
它们显然是低营养食品，会导致体重增加进而提高糖尿病及心血管疾病患病风险
Changing consumption patterns are necessary to reduce risk and improve health
更改消费习惯对减少患病，增进健康都有好处
