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You'd probably be surprised to find how many people actually think we have never been to the moon.
你可能会惊讶地发现那么多人认为我们从没去过月球。
They think a reflection on an astronaut's visor or the American flag supposedly "blowing in the wind"
他们认为，宇航员面罩反光或应该在风中飘扬的美国国旗
prove that the 1969 moon landing was staged by NASA to win the Space Race.
证明1969年的月球登陆是美国宇航局（NASA）为赢得太空竞赛而策划的。
Which, to be clear, it was not.
事实很显然不是这样。
But pretty much nothing you say is going to change a conspiracy theorist's mind.
但你说的几乎不会改变阴谋论者的想法。
A conspiracy theory is the allegation
阴谋论就是断言
that a group of (usually powerful) people conspired to achieve some (usually evil) goal.
一群（通常很强大的）人密谋达成一些（通常很邪恶的）目标。
To be fair, conspiracy theories aren't always false.
公平地说，阴谋论并不总是错的。
Watergate, for instance, turned out to be real.
例如，水门事件是真的。
The CIA really was giving LSD to people.
美国中情局真的把水门事件的真相还给了人们。
But… a lot of them are pretty out there. Like, the Earth is flat!
但有很多阴谋论是假的。比如，地球是平的！
The U.S. government is hiding UFOs in Area 51! That kind of thing.
美国政府将不明飞行物藏在了51区等这一类事件。
With the internet spreading conspiracy theories faster than ever and making them more visible,
由于互联网传播阴谋论的速度比以往任何时候都快，使得阴谋论更加可见，
more and more people are exposed to them.
越来越多的人能接触到它们。
And they can have a powerful effect on your behavior.
它们可能会对你的行为产生巨大影响。
Studies have shown that conspiracy theories can make people less likely to engage in politics,
研究已经表明，阴谋论可能使人们不太愿意参与政治、
vaccinate their kids, or try to reduce their carbon footprint.
给他们的孩子接种疫苗，或者减少他们的碳足迹。
So it's pretty important to understand why people believe in these ideas
所以理解人们为什么在面对相反的合理证据时
even in the face of reasonable evidence to the contrary.
仍相信阴谋论很重要。
Fortunately, psychologists have done a lot of research on conspiracy theories in the past couple decades.
幸运的是，心理学家在过去的几十年里做了很多关于阴谋论的研究。
Most recently, they've found a bunch of support for a hypothesis that's been around for a while:
最近，他们发现了一个假说的大量证据，这个假说已经存在一段时间了：
illusory pattern perception, our tendency to see patterns that aren't there.
它就是幻觉模式感知，即我们倾向于看到不存在的模式。
Pattern detection is hardwired into our brains.
模式检测在我们大脑中根深蒂固。
Some researchers think it evolved as our ancestors foraged for resources that tended to clump together.
一些研究人员认为，它是随我们祖先搜寻那些倾向于聚集的资源而进化来的。
It also helps us avoid danger:
它还能帮助我们避免危险：
last time you smelled this funky odor, you got food poisoning, so maybe you shouldn't eat that meat.
你上次闻到这种怪味就食物中毒了，所以你也许不应该吃那块肉。
But we might actually be too good at pattern detection.
但我们实际可能太擅长模式检测了。
If you've ever tried to memorize a bunch of digits of pi,
如果你曾试过记住一串圆周率数字，
you'll know that random sequences often don't look random to your brain.
就会知道随机序列在你的大脑中通常不随机。
There's plenty of research to back this up.
很多研究都支持这一观点。
We know that people see hot streaks in sports that aren't there
我们知道人们在体育中看到的是不存在的连续得分，
and that gamblers are more likely to see patterns in random sequences than other people.
而赌徒们比其他人更容易看到随机序列的模式。
And a study from 1997 found that subjects were more likely to rate strings of Xs and Os
1997年的一项研究发现，受试者更有可能对Xs和Os字符串进行评级，
that were harder to split into patterns, and therefore harder to memorize, as being "more random",
这些字符串很难被划分为模式，因为更随机，所以很难记忆，
even when they'd be considered less random in the mathematical sense.
即使它们在数学意义上被认为不那么随机。
According to the researchers, that suggests that
根据研究人员的说法，这说明
our sense of randomness is based more on how hard it is to mentally encode something,
我们的随机感觉更多的是基于心理上对某些东西编码有多难，
not how objectively random it is,
而不是随机性多么客观，
and that something that's easier to mentally process can stop feeling random.
而那些更容易在心理上处理的事会停止随机感。
A 2017 study published in the European Journal of Social Psychology applied these ideas to conspiracy theories.
2017年发表在《欧洲社会心理学杂志》(European Journal of Social Psychology)上的一项研究将这些观点应用于阴谋论。
The researchers conducted five experiments, with 200-400 participants in each.
研究人员进行了5次实验，每组实验参与者是200到400人。
In one experiment, people who saw patterns in a random series of coin flips
在一项实验中，人们在随机的抛硬币活动中看模式，
were more likely to believe in an irrational experimenter-designed conspiracy theory.
他们更倾向于相信这是一个非理性的实验设计阴谋论。
In another, they were asked to evaluate modern art paintings
在另一项研究中，他们被要求评价现代艺术作品，
that were considered either "structured" or "chaotic".
这些作品要么“结构化”，要么“混乱”。
Those who saw patterns in the "structured" paintings,
那些在“结构化”绘画中看到模式的人，
so, patterns that were actually there, weren't more likely to believe in conspiracy theories.
因为模式确实存在，不太可能相信阴谋论。
But people who saw non-existent patterns in the "chaotic" ones were.
但在“混乱”绘画中看到不存在的模式的人更愿意相信它。
Looking for patterns that aren't there might also affect your belief in conspiracy theories.
寻找不存在的模式也会影响你对阴谋论的信任。
Subjects who were told to look for patterns in the random coin-flips were more likely to find them.
被告知在随机硬币中寻找模式的受试者更容易找到它们。
Those who already believed in a conspiracy theory were more likely to see patterns in world events.
那些已经相信阴谋论的人更有可能看到世界事件的模式。
And when subjects read an article that argued for a conspiracy theory,
当受试者读到一篇为阴谋论辩护的文章时，
they were more likely to believe in other, unrelated, conspiracy theories.
他们更倾向于相信其他无关的阴谋论。
So, illusory pattern perception might be the mechanism
因此，幻觉模式感知可能是一种机制，
that causes people to believe in conspiracy theories, but why do they do it?
它让人们相信阴谋论，但它为什么这么做呢？
It might be because we don't like uncertainty.
这可能是因为我们不喜欢不确定性。
Studies have shown again and again that we're more comfortable with events that are predictable and controllable.
研究一再表明，我们对可预测和可控事件更放心。
So researchers think people use conspiracy theories
因此研究人员认为，人们使用阴谋论
to make sense of complex or upsetting events that don't seem to have a good enough explanation.
来讲通那些没有足够解释的复杂或不快事件。
If something is too hard to process, you might look for other explanations.
如果事情太难处理，你可能会寻找其他解释。
People are also more likely to form conspiracy theories in the wake of events that are impactful or threatening.
人们也更有可能在有影响或有威胁性的事件发生后形成阴谋论。
Your brain wants better explanations for things with bigger consequences.
你的大脑需要对更大后果作出更好的解释。
When the stakes are a beloved president's death,
当事关敬爱的总统去世时，
it makes more sense to your brain for there to be some giant, elaborate explanation,
你的大脑更容易接受一些详细的宏观解释，
like a Warren Commission cover-up, than something simple like a lone gunman.
比如它是华伦委员会(Warren Commission)的一种掩饰，而不是一个孤独枪手那样简单。
We're all susceptible to illusory pattern perception,
我们都易受幻觉模式感知的影响，
but there are some factors that predict whether someone is more likely to believe in conspiracy theories.
但是有一些因素可以预测一个人是否更容易相信阴谋论。
The biggest predictor for believing in a conspiracy theory is believing in another one.
相信阴谋论的最大预测者将相信另一个阴谋论。
But there are more.
但还有更多因素。
One study found that subjects used their own sense of morality as a proxy for that of other people.
一项研究发现，受试者使用他们自己的道德感代表他人。
So they were more likely to believe that, like, scientists created AIDS, for example,
所以他们更倾向于相信科学家发明艾滋病之类的阴谋，
if they thought that they themselves would have created AIDS.
如果他们认为自己创造了艾滋病的话。
Political extremism is another factor.
政治极端主义是另一个因素。
Researchers think it gives people a rigid perspective on societal change
研究人员认为，它给了人们关于社会变化的刻板印象，
and makes them more likely to question the authority figures offering the explanations.
并让他们更有可能质疑提供解释的权威人物。
Having less education can also make people more likely to believe in conspiracy theories,
接受较少的教育也会使人们更容易相信阴谋论，
but that's at least partly because those with less education feel they have less control over their lives.
但至少有部分原因是受教育程度较低的人觉得他们对自己的生活控制得更少。
This increases uncertainty, which in turn makes conspiracy theories more appealing.
这增加了不确定性，从而使阴谋论更有吸引力。
That might be something we can use to help defeat false conspiracy theories,
通过寻找方法帮助人们实现对自己生活的掌控感，
by finding ways to help people achieve a sense of control over their lives.
我们就可以击败虚假阴谋论。
Change is always hard, but reducing the uncertainty and fear it causes
改变总是困难的，但减少不确定性和它造成的恐惧
might mean people don't need to search for better explanations where they don't exist.
可能意味着人们不需要寻找更好的解释，因为它们不存在。
Thanks for watching this episode of SciShow Psych.
感谢您收看本期的心理科学秀。
If you're interested in learning more about why our weird human brains work the way they do,
如果你有兴趣了解更多我们奇怪的人类大脑这样工作的原因，
you can go to youtube.com/scishowpsych to subscribe.
可以登录youtube.com/scishowpsych，点击订阅。
